Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives
- 715 Downloads
In this paper, we translate the five narratives as defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) research community into five alternative demographic scenarios using projections by age, sex and level of education for 171 countries up to 2100. The scenarios represent a significant step beyond past population scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change context, which considered only population size. The definitions of the medium assumptions about future fertility, mortality, migration and education trends are taken from a major new projections effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, while the assumptions for all the other scenarios were defined in interactions with other groups in the SSP community. Since a full data base with all country-specific results is available online, this paper can only highlight selected results.
KeywordsPopulation projections Education Age structure Scenarios Country level SSP
- Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J., Lutz, W., Hosseini-Chavoshi, M., & KC, S. (2008). Education and the World’s most rapid fertility decline in Iran (Interim Report No. IR-08-010). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.Google Scholar
- Arnell, N., Kram, T., Carter, T., Ebi, K., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., et al. (2011). A framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation research (Scenario Framework Paper). Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.Google Scholar
- Barakat, B. F., & Durham, R. E. (2013). Future education trends (Interim report No. IR-13-014). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.Google Scholar
- Basten, S., Sobotka, T., & Zeman, K. (2013). Future fertility in low fertility countries (VID Working Paper No. 05/2013). Vienna, Austria: Vienna Institute of Demography.Google Scholar
- Caselli, G., Drefahl, S., Luy, M., & Wegner, C. (2013). Future mortality in low-mortality countries (VID Working Paper No. 06/2013). Vienna, Austria: Vienna Institute of Demography.Google Scholar
- Crespo Cuaresma, J. (under review in GEC). Income projections for climate change research: A framework based on human capital dynamics. Global Environmental Change.Google Scholar
- Frankenberg, E., Sikoki, B., Sumantri, C., Suriastini, W., & Thomas, D. (2013). Education, vulnerability, and resilience after a natural disaster. Ecology and Society, 18(2). doi:10.5751/ES-05377-180216.
- Fuchs, R., & Goujon, A. (2013). The Future Fertility of High Fertility Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments (Interim Report No. IR-13-013). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.Google Scholar
- Garbero, A., & Pamuk, E. (2013). The future mortality of high mortality countries: A model incorporating expert arguments (Interim Report No. IR-13-017). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.Google Scholar
- Hayami, Y., & Ruttan, V. W. (1971). Agricultural development: An international perspective. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
- Helgeson, J. F., Dietz, S., & Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2013). Vulnerability to weather disasters: The choice of coping strategies in Rural Uganda. Ecology and Society, 18(2). doi:10.5751/ES-05390-180202.
- Hunter, L. M., & O’Neill, B. C. (2014). Enhancing engagement between the population, environment, and climate research communities: The shared socio-economic pathway process. Population and Environment. doi:10.1007/s11111-014-0202-7.
- KC, S. (2013). Community vulnerability to floods and landslides in Nepal. Ecology and Society, 18(1). doi:10.5751/ES-05095-180108.
- KC, S., Potančoková, M., Bauer, R., Goujon, A., & Striessnig, E. (2013). Summary of Data, Assumptions and Methods for New Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) Population Projections by Age, Sex and Level of Education for 195 Countries to 2100 (Interim Report No. IR-13-018). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.Google Scholar
- KC, S., & Lutz, W. (2014). The human core of the SSPs: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Global Environmental Change (forthcoming).Google Scholar
- Lutz, W. (Ed.). (1994a). Population, development, environment: Understanding their interactions in mauritius. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
- Lutz, W. (Ed.). (1994b). The Future Population of the World. What can we assume today?. London: Earthscan.Google Scholar
- Lutz, W., Butz, W. P., & KC, S. (eds.) (2014). World population and human capital in the 21st century. Oxford University Press, forthcoming.Google Scholar
- Lutz, W., Prskawetz, A., & Sanderson, W. C. (Eds.). (2002). Population and environment: Methods of analysis. Supplement to population and development review (Vol. 28). New York, NY: The Population Council.Google Scholar
- Lutz, W., Scherbov, S., Makinwa-Adebusoye, P. K., & Reniers, G. (2004). Population–environment–development–agriculture interactions in Africa: A case study on Ethiopia. In W. Lutz, W. C. Sanderson, & S. Scherbov (Eds.), The end of world population growth in the 21st century: New challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development (pp. 187–225). London. UK: Earthscan.Google Scholar
- Lutz, W., & Skirbekk, V. (2013). How education drives demography and knowledge informs projections (Interim Report No. IR-13-016). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.Google Scholar
- Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Grubler, A., Riahi, K., Roehrl, R. A., Rogner, H.-H., et al. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios (SRES), a special report of Working Group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- O’Neill, B. C., MacKellar, F. L., & Lutz, W. (2001). Population and climate change. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Sander, N., Abel, G., & Riosmena, F. (2013). The future of international migration: Developing expert-based assumptions for global population projections (Working Paper No. 07/2013). Vienna: Vienna Institute of Demography.Google Scholar
- Sharma, U., Patwardhan, A., & Patt, A. G. (2013). Education as a Determinant of Response to Cyclone Warnings: Evidence from Coastal Zones in India. Ecology and Society, 18(2). doi:10.5751/ES-05439-180218.
- United Nations. (2009). World population prospects: The 2008 revision. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.Google Scholar
- United Nations. (2011). World population prospects: The 2010 revision. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.Google Scholar
- United Nations. (2013). World population prospects: The 2012 revision. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.Google Scholar
- Wamsler, C., Brink, E., & Rantala, O. (2012). Climate change, adaptation, and formal education: The role of schooling for increasing societies adaptive capacities in El Salvador and Brazil. Ecology and Society, 17(2). doi:10.5751/ES-04645-170202.