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Motivated Reasoning, Public Opinion, and Presidential Approval

  • Kathleen Donovan
  • Paul M. Kellstedt
  • Ellen M. KeyEmail author
  • Matthew J. Lebo
Original Paper

Abstract

Presidential approval is a desirable commodity for US presidents, one that bolsters re-election chances and the prospects of legislative success. An important question, then, is what shapes citizens’ approval of the executive. A large body of literature demonstrates that the president’s handling of issues, particularly the economy, is an important component. A similarly large literature confirms that evaluations of the president, like most political objects, are filtered through partisan lenses. Due to changes in the US political environment in the last few decades, we suspect that the relative importance of these components has changed over time. In particular, we argue that polarization has increased partisan motivated reasoning when it comes to evaluations of the president. We support this empirically by disaggregating approval ratings from Reagan to Obama into in- and out-partisans, finding that approval is increasingly detached from economic assessments. This is true for members opposite the president’s party earlier than it is for in-partisans. While the president has been over-attributed credit and blame for economic conditions, the increasing impact of partisanship on approval at the expense of economic sentiment has generally negative implications when it comes to electoral outcomes and democratic accountability.

Keywords

Public opinion Presidential approval Motivated reasoning Polarization 

Notes

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Amber Boydstun for helpful comments and A.M. for pushing us to find a suitable outlet for this manuscript. The data and replication code can be found at  https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MN4PT4.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.St. John Fisher CollegeRochesterUSA
  2. 2.Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA
  3. 3.Appalachian State UniversityBooneUSA
  4. 4.Stony Brook UniversityStony BrookUSA

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