Abstract
Given its historical and contemporary importance, it is noteworthy that the relevant literature generally overlooks the role that religion and its accompanying values play in determining support for black candidates. In addressing this question, we review the historical and theological bases of evangelical attitudes toward blacks. We then present experimental results that examine evangelical attitudes toward blacks. We follow this with results from the 2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races to bolster the experimental findings. Finally, we discuss our findings and their implications for GOP attempts to recruit black candidates who can appeal to moderate white and black voters without losing support from the GOP’s evangelical base.
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Notes
Admittedly, one might argue that conservative positions on these issues are not detrimental to either individual blacks or the black community, as they could be seen as helping to develop self-reliance.
Watts represented Oklahoma’s Fourth Congressional District from 1995 to 2003. He is noteworthy because the distict is 79.9% Caucasian, and includes some of the most densely populated white evangelical counties in the state (The Washington Post Electons Census; Jones et al. 2002).
See below for specific figures.
This information, which was the same for the experimental and control groups, stated that the candidate was 45, married, had three children, and worked as a financial analyst.
Taken from the survey item: “Based on this information, I believe this candidate is a”. Response scale ranges from 0 to 10, with “0” being Democrat, and “10” Republican.
The significance of the model’s interaction between the black candidate, code statement, and subject ideology suggests that the code does have a conservative meaning apart from a religious message that increases subject candidate support. This finding leads us to consider the effect of candidate ideology apart from religious code statements in our second experiment.
Importantly, the experiment and analysis of exit poll data to follow, while assessing anti-black affect among evangelicals, are less direct tests of evangelical candidate assessment based on the Protestant ethic and love of neighbor than was the first experiment. As such, we return to direct consideration of these religious values in our discussion and conclusion.
These questions were: (1) How often do you attend church?, (2) How often do you read the Bible?, (3) There is no other way to salvation but through beliefe in Jesus Christ, (4) The Bible is the true word of God, both in matters of faith and in historic, geographic, and other secular matters.
Since we manipulated candidate social conservatism in this experiment, using ideology as a predictor of subject support may be viewed as problematic. Therefore, we elect not to incorporate subject ideology in these models.
Ohio and Maryland also had statewide races with black Republican candidates in 2006. The exit polls for these races, unlike for Pennsylvania, did not ask respondents if they considered themselves to be “born-again.” We did conduct analysis in all three states using the frequency of church attendance, and the results using this weaker measure of religiosity did not produce conclusions different from those presented above.
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Calfano, B.R., Paolino, P. An Alan Keyes Effect? Examining Anti-Black Sentiment Among White Evangelicals. Polit Behav 32, 133–156 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-009-9095-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-009-9095-z
Keywords
- Anti-black effect
- Evangelical voters
- Religious code language
- Protestant work ethic
- Ideology