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Two-state solution to the lottery paradox

  • Artūrs LoginsEmail author
Article

Abstract

This paper elaborates a new solution to the lottery paradox, according to which the paradox arises only when we lump together two distinct states of being confident that p under one general label of ‘belief that p’. The two-state conjecture is defended on the basis of some recent work on gradable adjectives. The conjecture is supported by independent considerations from the impossibility of constructing the lottery paradox both for risk-tolerating states such as being afraid, hoping or hypothesizing, and for risk-averse, certainty-like states. The new proposal is compared to views within the increasingly popular debate opposing dualists to reductionists with respect to the relation between belief and degrees of belief.

Keywords

The lottery paradox Epistemic justification Closure Emotions Justified belief Confidence Gradable adjectives Paradox Lockean thesis Belief Knowledge Certainty Risky states Absolute adjectives Credences Dualism about belief Reductionism about belief 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Many thanks to Richard Dub, Jeremy Goodman, John Hawthorne, Benjamin Kiesewetter, Thomas Kroedel, Tristram Oliver-Skuse, Edgar Phillips, Travis Timmerman, Alexis Wellwood, audiences at University of Geneva, University of Fribourg, SOPHA 2018 congress, and two anonymous referees for this journal for discussion and comments on earlier version of this paper. The research work that led to this article was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation Grants Number 171464 and 169293.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Philosophy and Swiss Center for Affective SciencesUniversity of GenevaGenevaSwitzerland

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