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Astrobiological Phase Transition: Towards Resolution of Fermi’s Paradox

Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres volume 38, pages 535–547 (2008)Cite this article

Abstract

Can astrophysics explain Fermi’s paradox or the “Great Silence” problem? If available, such explanation would be advantageous over most of those suggested in literature which rely on unverifiable cultural and/or sociological assumptions. We suggest, instead, a general astrobiological paradigm which might offer a physical and empirically testable paradox resolution. Based on the idea of James Annis, we develop a model of an astrobiological phase transition of the Milky Way, based on the concept of the global regulation mechanism(s). The dominant regulation mechanisms, arguably, are γ-ray bursts, whose properties and cosmological evolution are becoming well-understood. Secular evolution of regulation mechanisms leads to the brief epoch of phase transition: from an essentially dead place, with pockets of low-complexity life restricted to planetary surfaces, it will, on a short (Fermi–Hart) timescale, become filled with high-complexity life. An observation selection effect explains why we are not, in spite of the very small prior probability, to be surprised at being located in that brief phase of disequilibrium. In addition, we show that, although the phase-transition model may explain the “Great Silence”, it is not supportive of the “contact pessimist” position. To the contrary, the phase-transition model offers a rational motivation for continuation and extension of our present-day Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) endeavours. Some of the unequivocal and testable predictions of our model include the decrease of extinction risk in the history of terrestrial life, the absence of any traces of Galactic societies significantly older than human society, complete lack of any extragalactic intelligent signals or phenomena, and the presence of ubiquitous low-complexity life in the Milky Way.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    We speak here of “life” in the most completely generalized context, without excluding the possibility (which we, indeed, consider likely) that most of the observers in advanced technological civilizations will be of postbiological nature (Dick 2003).

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Acknowledgements

An anonymous referee has offered very useful suggestions resulting in significant improvement of the previous version of this manuscript. M. M. Ć. uses the opportunity to thank the Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford, UK, for the kind hospitality during the period this paper was conceived. This work has been supported by the Ministry of Science of the Republic of Serbia through the project ON146012. Useful discussions with Richard B. Cathcart, Anders Sandberg, Branislav K. Nikolić, Nick Bostrom, Brian Thomas, Tanja Berić, Robert J. Bradbury, Slobodan Popović, Ivana Dragićević, and Robin Hanson are also hereby acknowledged.

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  1. Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Volgina 7, 11160, Belgrade, Serbia

    Milan M. Ćirković & Branislav Vukotić

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  1. Milan M. Ćirković
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  2. Branislav Vukotić
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Correspondence to Milan M. Ćirković.

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Ćirković, M.M., Vukotić, B. Astrobiological Phase Transition: Towards Resolution of Fermi’s Paradox. Orig Life Evol Biosph 38, 535–547 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11084-008-9149-y

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Keywords

  • Biogenesis
  • Extraterrestrial intelligence
  • Mass extinctions
  • Evolutionary contingency
  • Catastrophism
  • Galaxy evolution