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Machine learning to explore the stochastic perturbations in revenue of pandemic-influenced small businesses

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Abstract

The classical models of risk assessment and the forecasting tools of business revenue typically contain unknown parameters with a range of empirical values that are insufficient for making intuitive predictions. To improve the modeling and simulation approaches, it is necessary to deal with the associated data-sets, subject to several complex constraints, using smart programming tools. These constraints are responsible for the randomness, noise and perturbation, technically termed as the stochastic effects. Such stochastic processes, when incorporated with seasonality lead to the mean reverting L’evy-based Ornstein–Uhlenbeck approach. The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck modeling approach is used here for the assessment of the revenue. Regression learner models of machine learning are developed to explore impact of the change in temperature on pandemic thresholds and with this, the change in revenue. The current research strategy can prove to support the investors in their future investment planning and decisions and to forecast the risks and the fate of small and individual-based businesses.

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The authors declare that the data generated during simulations, is generated based on the optimized parametric values and literature review as acknowledged.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the support provided by the data repositories: CSSEGISandData-COVID-19 and UNEP Environmental Data Explorer.

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The authors have not disclosed any funding.

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Author notes

  1. Zhenhua Yu and Ayesha Sohail equally contributed to all steps.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Systems Security and Control, College of Computer Science and Technology, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, 710054, China

    Zhenhua Yu

  2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia

    Ayesha Sohail

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  1. Zhenhua Yu
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  2. Ayesha Sohail
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Correspondence to Zhenhua Yu.

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Yu, Z., Sohail, A. Machine learning to explore the stochastic perturbations in revenue of pandemic-influenced small businesses. Nonlinear Dyn 112, 1549–1558 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-023-09011-7

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