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The effects of travel restrictions and detection measures on epidemic spreading in a metapopulation network

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Abstract

The implementation of intervention strategies plays a crucial role in preventing the spread of epidemics. In this study, we incorporated travel restrictions and detection measures into a metapopulation framework, creating an epidemic model that takes into account recurrent mobility patterns. We determined theoretical thresholds subject to two constraints and executed comprehensive simulations to validate the model, which is founded upon Markovian equations. Our empirical findings reveal that enhancing detection efficiency, implementing rigorous travel restrictions, and reducing the transmission rate among regulated groups can effectively curtail the ultimate spread of the epidemic. However, we observed that the influence of travel restrictions weakens as the network’s average degree increases. Additionally, reducing the restriction parameter does not yield a higher threshold compared to when the mobility rate is low, as seen from a threshold perspective.

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All the data used are generated by the algorithms described in the article, or their sources are shown in the references.

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Funding

We acknowledge partial financial support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72243005), Youth Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education (20YJC630059), Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai (21ZR1404700). In addition, we would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their contributions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, 212013, China

    Dun Han & Juquan Wang

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  1. Dun Han
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the conceptualization, methodology, theoretical analysis, software and visualization. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Dun Han and Juquan Wang, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Dun Han.

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Han, D., Wang, J. The effects of travel restrictions and detection measures on epidemic spreading in a metapopulation network. Nonlinear Dyn 111, 20511–20524 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-023-08902-z

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