Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Seismic risk assessment of Tehran masonry school buildings and prioritizing them for seismic retrofitting using reliability methods

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the seismic risk of the masonry school buildings located in the Tehran metropolis over the next 50 years and to prioritize them for seismic retrofitting toward optimal seismic risk mitigation. Tehran ranks among the world's largest cities facing a significant seismic hazard, and masonry buildings are identified as among the structural types exhibiting the poorest seismic performance. In addition, school buildings, due to their population density, are considered important buildings by many seismic codes; Consequently, it is vital to conduct a comprehensive seismic risk analysis for these buildings and strategically allocate limited resources to their seismic retrofitting. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to rank school buildings here. The sensitivity measures are the derivative of the risk measures with respect to the building retrofit cost. These risk measures are the moments of the probability distribution of the structural and non-structural costs of the building portfolio following risk-neutral and risk-averse decision-making. The risk and sensitivity analyses are conducted employing reliability methods and Rtx software which includes assembling a chain of probabilistic models to represent an earthquake's hazard, the damage caused by it, and the ensuing costs.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

© 2023 Google): a Map of area seismic source and its sub-areas and b Map of faults in the vicinity of Tehran

Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abrahamson NA, Silva WJ, Kamai R (2014) Summary of the ASK14 ground motion relation for active crustal regions. Earthq Spectra 30:1025–1055. https://doi.org/10.1193/070913EQS198M

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abrams DP, Moghadam AS, Bozorgnia Y, Yekrangnia M (2015) Seismic retrofit of school buildings in Iran. In: Proceedings of the 12th North American Masonry Conference, Denver, CO, USA, pp 17–20

  • ATC (1985) Earthquake damage evaluation for California. Rep. No. ATC-13. Applied Technology Council, Redwood City, California

  • Azizi-Bondarabadi H, Mendes N, Lourenço PB, Sadeghi NH (2016) Empirical seismic vulnerability analysis for masonry buildings based on school buildings survey in Iran. Bull Earthq Eng 14:3195–3229. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-9944-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boore DM, Stewart JP, Seyhan E, Atkinson GM (2014) NGA-West2 equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes. Earthq Spectra 30:1057–1085. https://doi.org/10.1193/070113EQS184M

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Borzi B, Ceresa P, Faravelli M, Fiorini E, Onida M (2013) Seismic risk assessment of Italian school buildings. Comput Methods Earthq Eng 2:317–344. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6573-3_16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Box GE, Tiao GC (2011) Bayesian inference in statistical analysis. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Bozorgnia Y, Abrahamson NA, Atik LA, Ancheta TD, Atkinson GM, Baker JW et al (2014) NGA-West2 research project. Earthq Spectra 30:973–987. https://doi.org/10.1193/072113EQS209M

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Building Seismic Safety Council (2001) NEHRP recommended provision for seismic regulations for new buildings and other structure, 2000 edition, part 1 provision, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Report FEMA 368, Washington, DC, USA

  • Campbell KW, Bozorgnia Y (2014) NGA-West2 ground motion model for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra. Earthq Spectra 30:1087–1115. https://doi.org/10.1193/062913EQS175M

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cardenas O, Farfan A, Huaco G (2020) Seismic risk assessment of peruvian public school buildings using FEMA P-154 rapid visual screening. In: 2020 Congreso Internacional de Innovación y Tendencias en Ingeniería (CONIITI). IEEE, pp 1–5

  • Chiou BSJ, Youngs RR (2014) Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra. Earthq Spectra 30:1117–1153. https://doi.org/10.1193/072813EQS219M

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cornell CA, Krawinkler H (2000) Progress and challenges in seismic performance assessment. PEER Center News 3:526–533

    Google Scholar 

  • Dehkordi MR, Torabizadeh MH, Shahri A, Yekrangnia M, Eghbali M (2014) Prioritizing algorithm for retrofitting of school buildings in Iran. In: Second Europian Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Istanbul

  • Faravelli M, Borzi B, Onida M, Cattari S, Alfano S, Masi A et al (2023) An Italian platform for the seismic risk assessment of school buildings. Procedia Struct Integr 44:107–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prostr.2023.01.015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FEMA-NIBS (2003) Earthquake loss estimation methodology - HAZUS Technical Manual. Federal Emergency Management Agency and National Institute of Building Sciences, Washington, DC, USA

  • FEMA-P-154 (1988) Rapid visual screening of buildings for potential seismic hazards: A handbook. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Washington, DC, USA

  • FEMA-P-58 (2012) Seismic performance assessment of buildings. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Washington, DC, USA

  • Gardoni P, Der Kiureghian A, Mosalam KM (2002) Probabilistic capacity models and fragility estimates for reinforced concrete columns based on experimental observations. J Eng Mech 128:1024–1038. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)07339399(2002)128:10(1024)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gholipour Y, Bozorgnia Y, Rahnama M, Berberian M, Shojataheri J (2008) Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, phase I–greater Tehran regions. Final report. Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran

  • Grant DN, Bommer JJ, Pinho R, Calvi GM, Goretti A, Meroni F (2007) A prioritization scheme for seismic intervention in school buildings in Italy. Earthq Spectra 23:291–314. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2722784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull Seismol Soc Am 34:185–188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Idriss IM (2014) An NGA-West2 empirical model for estimating the horizontal spectral values generated by shallow crustal earthquakes. Earthq Spectra 30:1155–1177. https://doi.org/10.1193/070613EQS195M

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • López OA, Hernández JJ, Del Re G, Puig J, Espinosa L (2007) Reducing seismic risk of school buildings in Venezuela. Earthq Spectra 23:771–790. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2791000

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahaney JA, Paret TF, Kehoe BE, Freeman SA (1993) The capacity spectrum method for evaluating structural response during the Loma Prieta earthquake. In Mitigation and damage to the built environment, pp 501–510)

  • Mahdizadeh A, Raissi M, Borzouie J (2011) Report on retrofit procedure of school buildings in Islamic Republic of Iran. Ministry of Education State Organization of Schools Renovation, Tehran

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahsuli M (2012) Probabilistic models, methods, and software for evaluating risk to civil infrastructure. University of British Columbia, Vancouver

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahsuli M, Haukaas T (2013a) Computer program for multimodel reliability and optimization analysis. J Comput Civ Eng 27:87–98. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahsuli M, Haukaas T (2013b) Seismic risk analysis with reliability methods, part I: models. Struct Saf 42:54–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2013.01.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahsuli M, Haukaas T (2013c) Seismic risk analysis with reliability methods, part II: analysis. Struct Saf 42:63–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2013.01.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahsuli M, Haukaas T (2013d) Sensitivity measures for optimal mitigation of risk and reduction of model uncertainty. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 117:9–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.03.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahsuli M, Rahimi H, Bakhshi A (2019) Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Iran using reliability methods. Bull Earthq Eng 17:1117–1143. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0498-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martins L, Silva V (2021) Development of a fragility and vulnerability model for global seismic risk analyses. Bull Earthq Eng 19:6719–6745. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00885-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGuire R (2004) Seismic hazard and risk analysis. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland

    Google Scholar 

  • Nasrazadani H, Mahsuli M (2020) Probabilistic framework for evaluating community resilience: integration of risk models and agent-based simulation. J Struct Eng 146:04020250. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0002810

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Reilly GJ, Perrone D, Fox M, Monteiro R, Filiatrault A (2018) Seismic assessment and loss estimation of existing school buildings in Italy. Eng Struct 168:142–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2018.04.056

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perrone D, O’Reilly GJ, Monteiro R, Filiatrault A (2020) Assessing seismic risk in typical Italian school buildings: from in-situ survey to loss estimation. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 44:101448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101448

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petal M (2008) Disaster prevention for schools guidance for education sector decision-makers: international strategy for disaster reduction thematic platform for knowledge and education. UNISDR, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahimi H, Mahsuli M (2019) Structural reliability approach to analysis of probabilistic seismic hazard and its sensitivities. Bull Earthq Eng 17:1331–1359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0497-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Risk O, Bernoulli D (1954) Exposition of a new theory on the measurement. Econometrica 22:23–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rojahn C, Sharpe RL, Scholl RE, Kiremidjian AS, Nutt RV, Wilson RR (1986) Earthquake damage and loss evaluation for California. Earthq Spectra 2:767–782. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1585410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rota M, Penna A, Strobbia CL (2008) Processing Italian damage data to derive typological fragility curves. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 28:933–947. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2007.10.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rubinstein A, Kuhn HW, Morgenstern O, von Neumann J (2007) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior: 60th Anniversary Commemorative Edition

  • Shafiee A, Azadi A (2007) Shear-wave velocity characteristics of geological units throughout Tehran City, Iran. J Asian Earth Sci 29:105–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2006.02.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silva V, Amo-Oduro D, Calderon A, Costa C, Dabbeek J, Despotaki V et al (2020) Development of a global seismic risk model. Earthq Spectra 36:372–394. https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293019899953

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Talebiyan H, Mahsuli M (2018) Risk-based prioritization of a building portfolio for retrofit. J Struct Eng 144:04017181. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001927

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Talebiyan H (2016) Optimal seismic risk mitigation by prioritization of structures for retrofit. M.Sc. thesis, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Sharif Univ. of Technology

  • Tesfamariam S, Saatcioglu M (2008) Risk-based seismic evaluation of reinforced concrete buildings. Earthq Spectra 24:795–821. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2952767

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tierney K, Khazai B, Tobin LT, Krimgold F (2005) Social and public policy issues following the 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake. Earthq Spectra 21:513–534. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2098928

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wen YK, Ellingwood BR (2005) The role of fragility assessment in consequence-based engineering. Earthq Spectra 21:861–877. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1979502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wen YK (1990) Structural load modeling and combination for performance and safety evaluation. Developments in Civil Engineering

  • Yekrangnia M, Eghbali M, Panahi M, Zanganeh SY, Beyti M, Hayatgheybi SV (2017) A preliminary report on school buildings performance during M 7.3 Ezgeleh, Iran earthquake of November 12, 2017. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), Oakland

    Google Scholar 

  • Yekrangnia M, Bakhshi A, Ghannad MA, Panahi M (2021) Risk assessment of confined unreinforced masonry buildings based on FEMA P-58 methodology: a case study—school buildings in Tehran. Bull Earthq Eng 19:1079–1120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00990-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yekrangnia M, Mahdizadeh A (2009) URM Buildings and earthquake: in-depth evaluation of earthquake damages to URM buildings. Scientific report: Organization for Development, Renovation and Equipping Schools of I.R. Iran

  • Yılmaz S, Tama YS, Bilgin H (2013) Seismic performance evaluation of unreinforced masonry school buildings in Turkey. J Vib Control 19:2421–2433. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077546312453190

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

    Hassan Alimohammadi & Ali Bakhshi

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Shahid Rajaee Teacher Training University, Tehran, Iran

    Mohammad Yekrangnia

Authors
  1. Hassan Alimohammadi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ali Bakhshi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mohammad Yekrangnia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by [Hassan Alimohammadi], [Ali Bakhshi] and [Mohammad Yekrangnia]. The first draft of the manuscript was written by [Hassan Alimohammadi] and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ali Bakhshi.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Alimohammadi, H., Bakhshi, A. & Yekrangnia, M. Seismic risk assessment of Tehran masonry school buildings and prioritizing them for seismic retrofitting using reliability methods. Nat Hazards (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06666-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06666-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation