Abstract
Flood hazard assessment of cities gained significance globally due to rise in frequency of flood events and rapid urbanisation. Uncertainties in flood inundation models largely depend on the quality of input datasets, among which topography plays a vital role. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of global terrain models in simulating accurate flooding and generating hazard maps while considering the influence of land-use dynamics focussing on data-scarce regions. Open-source forest and building removed digital elevation model (FABDEM) and a terrain model TDX-12 DTM derived from TanDEM-X 12 DSM using a simple-morphological-filtering technique are considered for comparing their performance in simulating a flood event occurred in Surat city during the year 2006. Spatially varying short-term urban growth scenario for the year 2035 is developed by utilizing historical land-use maps of the study area and urban growth indicators. These are combined using multi-criteria-decision-making techniques and Cellular-Automata-Markov-Chain model. The FABDEM based hydrodynamic model performed better (Root-Mean-Squared-Error RMSE of 1.59 m) than TDX-12 DTM based model (RMSE: 1.88 m). Intercomparison of hazard maps of the FABDEM and TDX-12 DTM with ground-surveyed TopoDEM based-model showed an overall accuracy of 71.8% and 72.8%; for the future scenario 71.8% and 75.5% respectively. In a span of 29 years, a notable increase in hazard magnitude of 7.5% is solely attributed to change in land dynamics. In this study, though the FABDEM based-model showed better RMSE than TDX-12 DTM, the model is relatively less successful in capturing high-hazard regions. The DEMs processed for removal of non-ground objects yield accurate models than globally trained models.
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Acknowledgements
The first author is supported by the Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India vide their letter no. DST/INSPIRE Fellowship/2018/[IF180589] dated July 24, 2019. TanDEM-X data was provided by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) through an announcement of opportunity and proposal call with reference to the proposal “DEM_HYDR3378”. The authors thank data disseminating agencies such as Central Water Commission (CWC), Tapi Division, Surat, Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC), and Surat Irrigation Circle (SIC) for providing necessary data for hydrodynamic modelling. The authors acknowledge the infrastructural and computational facility provided by the Centre of Excellence (CoE) on “Water Resources and Flood Management”, SVNIT Surat under TEQIP-II funded by World Bank Grant through the Ministry of Education, Government of India. The authors sincerely thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for helping us to improve the quality of this manuscript.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Conceptualization, methodology, data curation, software, validation, writing original draft and reviewing and editing were performed by NV under the supervision of PPL All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Nandam, V., Patel, P.L. On the role of digital terrain topography and land use dynamics in flood hazard assessment of urban floodplain. Nat Hazards (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06664-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06664-4