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Developing significant earthquake damage scenarios following the July 2018 earthquake swarm in the Sea of Galilee area near the Dead Sea Fault

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Abstract

The development of a damage scenario following an earthquake swarm event in high-risk areas, such as the inland Sea of Galilee (SoG) in Israel, is critical for significantly increasing public awareness in preparation for a strong earthquake event. Following the earthquake swarms in 2013 and 2020 that occurred near the Dead Sea Fault (DSF) system in the SoG, the present study adopts a conservative approach to damage scenario development, maintaining that these events should be treated as precursory swarms. Accordingly, different damage and loss scenarios were developed using the 2020 Federal Emergency Management Agency software program Hazus and new in-house spatial analysis and postprocessing tools. The results of the scenario analyses confirm that the most intensive damage is expected to be concentrated around the SoG, especially in the adjacent city, Tiberias, if a moderate earthquake (Mw ∼ 6) occurred soon thereafter along the DSF system. In contrast, if a stronger earthquake (Mw ∼ 7) was to occur, the damage may spread to distant cities, such as Beit She’an and Haifa (distances of more than 50 km). Considering the potentially high number of casualties, intensive damage to buildings and essential facilities, high economic loss, blockages of main roads due to slope failures, and weight of debris expected to accumulate near the SoG, we stress the importance of immediate action on the part of civil protection agencies based on the present scenarios to promote the readiness of the population and significantly reduce the anticipated disaster magnitude.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank Yariv Hamiel, Nadav Wetzler and Ram Weinberger for their helpful discussions regarding the July 2018 swarm event. The thorough and helpful reviews of two anonymous reviewers and Editor Francesco Comiti are highly appreciated.

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    T. Levi, R. Calvo, E. Frucht & V. Avirav

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All authors contributed to the study conception, design and methodology. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Tsafrir Levi and Ran Calvo, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All the authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

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Levi, T., Calvo, R., Frucht, E. et al. Developing significant earthquake damage scenarios following the July 2018 earthquake swarm in the Sea of Galilee area near the Dead Sea Fault. Nat Hazards (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06539-8

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