Abstract
Assessing the risk of tropical cyclones (TCs) to offshore wind turbines (OWTs) can be a difficult task, mainly due to the lack of historical data. This study addresses this challenge by creating a synthetic TC hazard dataset that models 10,000 years of TC activity and developing a risk assessment framework based on this dataset. The present work uses full-track simulation to generate synthetic TCs and then employs the parametric wind field model and Mike 21 spectral wave model to simulate the corresponding wind and wave fields driven by the synthetic TCs. Additionally, the effect of climate change is incorporated into the synthetic TCs using a global climate model. A reliability analysis methodology is developed to measure the failure probability of OWTs. The proposed framework is applied to four representative sites in the South China Sea. The results indicate that the future climate will pose a greater risk for OWTs due to the increased intensity of TC-induced hazards. Additionally, proper maintenance of the yaw control system can effectively improve the safety of OWTs. The proposed framework can aid in enhancing the resilience of offshore wind energy systems.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Appendini CM, Pedrozo-Acuña A, Meza-Padilla R, Torres-Freyermuth A, Cerezo-Mota R, López-González J, Ruiz-Salcines P (2017) On the role of climate change on wind waves generated by tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Coast Eng J 59(02):1740001. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563417400010
ASCE (2016) Minimum design loads and associated criteria for buildings and other structures, ASCE Standard 7-16, Reston, VA
Battjes JA, Janssen J (1978) Energy loss and set-up due to breaking of random waves. In: Proceedings of 16th international conference on coastal engineering, ASCE, pp 569–587. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780872621909.034
Bloemendaal N, Haigh ID, de Moel H, Muis S, Haarsma RJ, Aerts JCJH (2020) Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM. Sci Data 7(1):40
Bloemendaal N, de Moel H, Martinez AB, Muis S, Haigh ID, van der Wiel K, Haarsma RJ, Ward PJ, Roberts MJ, Dullaart JC (2022) A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk. Sci Adv 8(17):eabm8438. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm8438
Curcic M, Kim E, Manuel L, Chen S, Donelan M, Michalakes J (2013) Coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling to characterize hurricane load cases for offshore wind turbines. In: 51st AIAA aerospace sciences meeting including the new horizons forum and aerospace exposition. https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2013-198
DeMaria M, Kaplan J (1994) Sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones. J Clim 7(9):1324–1334. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007%3c1324:sstatm%3e2.0.co;2
Emanuel KA (1988) The maximum intensity of hurricanes. J Atmos Sci 45(7):1143–1155. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1958)015%3c0184:otmioh%3e2.0.co;2
Emanuel K, Ravela S, Vivant E, Risi C (2006) A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87(3):299–314. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-87-3-299
Emanuel K, Sundararajan R, Williams J (2008) Hurricanes and global warming: results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89(3):347–368. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347
Eyring V, Bony S, Meehl GA, Senior CA, Stevens B, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2016) Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci Model Dev 9(5):1937–1958. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
Fang P, Ye G, Yu H (2020) A parametric wind field model and its application in simulating historical typhoons in the western North Pacific Ocean. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 199:104131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104131
Fujita T (1952) Pressure distribution within typhoon. Geophys Mag 23:437–451
Gaertner E, Rinker J, Sethuraman L, Zahle F, Anderson B, Barter GE, Abbas NJ, Meng F, Bortolotti P, Skrzypinski W (2020) IEA wind TCP task 37: definition of the IEA 15-megawatt offshore reference wind turbine. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). https://doi.org/10.2172/1603478
Ge H, Wang Z, Liang B, Zhang Z, Yan Z, Li Z (2021) A systematic study on berthing capacity assessment of sanya yazhou fishing port by typhoon prediction model. J Mar Sci Eng 9(12):1380. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9121380
Georgiou P, Davenport AG, Vickery B (1983) Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 13(1–3):139–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-42340-5.50019-1
Hallowell ST, Myers AT, Arwade SR, Pang W, Rawal P, Hines EM, Hajjar JF, Qiao C, Valamanesh V, Wei K (2018) Hurricane risk assessment of offshore wind turbines. Renew Energy 125:234–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.02.090
Harper BA, Hardy TA, Mason LB, Bode L, Young IR, Nielsen P (2001) Queensland climate change and community vulnerability to tropical cyclones—ocean hazards assessment—stage 1. Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
Hasselmann K, Barnett TP, Bouws E, Carlson H, Cartwright DE, Enke K, Ewing J, Gienapp A, Hasselmann D, Kruseman P (1973) Measurements of wind-wave growth and swell decay during the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP). Deutches Hydrographisches Institute
Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, Hirahara S, Horányi A, Muñoz-Sabater J, Nicolas J, Peubey C, Radu R, Schepers D (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146(730):1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803
Holland GJ (1980) An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Mon Weather Rev 108(8):1212–1218. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108%3c1212:AAMOTW%3e2.0.CO;2
Hou G, Xu K, Lian J (2022) A review on recent risk assessment methodologies of offshore wind turbine foundations. Ocean Eng 264:112469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112469
IEC (2019) Wind turbines—part 3: design requirements for offshore wind turbines. International Electrotechnical Commission
Jakobsen F, Madsen H (2004) Comparison and further development of parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modelling. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 92(5):375–391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2004.01.003
James M, Mason L (2005) Synthetic tropical cyclone database. J Waterw Port Coast Ocean Eng 131(4):181–192. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(2005)131:4(181)
Jelesnianski CP (1965) A numerical calculation of storm tides induced by a tropical storm impinging on a continental shelf. Mon Weather Rev 93(6):343–358
Jonkman JM, Buhl ML (2005) FAST user's guide. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, CO, USA
Jyoteeshkumar Reddy P, Sriram D, Gunthe S, Balaji C (2021) Impact of climate change on intense Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones of the post-monsoon season: a pseudo global warming approach. Clim Dyn 56(9–10):2855–2879. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05618-3
Kaimal JC, Wyngaard J, Izumi Y, Coté O (1972) Spectral characteristics of surface-layer turbulence. Q J R Meteorol Soc 98(417):563–589. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709841707
Kim E, Manuel L (2014) On modeling coupled influences of wind, wave, and current loads on an offshore wind turbine during a hurricane. In: 32nd ASME wind energy symposium, 1215. https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2014-1215
Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) unifying tropical cyclone data. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91(3):363–376. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1
Komen G, Hasselmann S, Hasselmann K (1984) On the existence of a fully developed wind-sea spectrum. J Phys Oceanogr 14(8):1271–1285. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1984)014%3c1271:OTEOAF%3e2.0.CO;2
Kyaw TO, Esteban M, Mäll M, Shibayama T (2021) Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations. Nat Hazards 106:1797–1818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04511-4
Lee CY, Tippett MK, Sobel AH, Camargo SJ (2018) An environmentally forced tropical cyclone hazard model. J Adv Model Earth Syst 10(1):223–241. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001186
Lee C-Y, Camargo SJ, Sobel AH, Tippett MK (2020) Statistical–dynamical downscaling projections of tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate: two diverging genesis scenarios. J Clim 33(11):4815–4834. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0452.1
Li S, Hong H (2016) Typhoon wind hazard estimation for China using an empirical track model. Nat Hazards 82(2):1009–1029. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2231-2
Liu Y, Li S, Chan PW, Chen D (2018) On the failure probability of offshore wind turbines in the China coastal waters due to typhoons: a case study using the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible. IEEE Trans Sustain Energy 10(2):522–532. https://doi.org/10.1109/tste.2018.2834471
Liu Q, Jiang J, Yu F, Zhang C, Dong J, Song X, Wang Y (2020) Typhoon storm surge ensemble forecast based on GPU technique. Acta Oceanol Sin 39(5):77–86. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-020-1570-8
Luo Z, Wang X, Wen H, Pei A (2022) Hydrogen production from offshore wind power in South China. Int J Hydrog Energy 47(58):24558–24568. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.03.162
Mandell JF, Samborsky DD, Miller DA, Agastra P, Sears AT (2016) Analysis of SNL/MSU/DOE fatigue database trends for wind turbine blade materials 2010–2015. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Manwell JF, McGowan JG, Rogers AL (2010) Wind energy explained: theory, design and application. Wiley, Hoboken
Meiler S, Vogt T, Bloemendaal N, Ciullo A, Lee C-Y, Camargo SJ, Emanuel K, Bresch DN (2022) Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models. Nat Commun 13(1):6156. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33918-1
Meza-Padilla R, Appendini CM, Pedrozo-Acuña A (2015) Hurricane-induced waves and storm surge modeling for the Mexican coast. Ocean Dyn 65:1199–1211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0861-7
Morison J, Johnson JW, Schaaf SA (1950) The force exerted by surface waves on piles. J Pet Technol 2(05):149–154. https://doi.org/10.21236/ad0006548
Nederhoff K, Hoek J, Leijnse T, van Ormondt M, Caires S, Giardino A (2021) Simulating synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for statistically reliable wind and pressure estimations. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 21(3):861–878. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021
Oh K-Y, Nam W (2021) A fast Monte-Carlo method to predict failure probability of offshore wind turbine caused by stochastic variations in soil. Ocean Eng 223:108635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.108635
Qiao C (2020) Environmental loadings for hurricane offshore multi-hazard risk. Northeastern University
Roberts MJ (2017) MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-HM model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP.Version 20221030. Earth System Grid Federation. Roberts, Malcolm John
Ronold KO, Larsen GC (2000) Reliability-based design of wind-turbine rotor blades against failure in ultimate loading. Eng Struct 22(6):565–574. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0141-0296(99)00014-0
Ruiz-Salcines P, Salles P, Robles-Díaz L, Díaz-Hernández G, Torres-Freyermuth A, Appendini CM (2019) On the use of parametric wind models for wind wave modeling under tropical cyclones. Water 11(10):2044. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102044
Samiksha S, Jancy L, Sudheesh K, Kumar VS, Shanas P (2021) Evaluation of wave growth and bottom friction parameterization schemes in the SWAN based on wave modelling for the central west coast of India. Ocean Eng 235:109356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109356
Shao Z, Liang B, Li H, Wu G, Wu Z (2018) Blended wind fields for wave modeling of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Appl Ocean Res 71:20–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2017.11.012
Sheng C, Hong H (2021) Reliability and fragility assessment of offshore floating wind turbine subjected to tropical cyclone hazard. Struct Saf 93:102138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2021.102138
Silverman BW (2018) Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Routledge, London
Tarp-Johansen N, Sørensen JD, Madsen PH (2002) Experience with acceptance criteria for offshore wind turbines in extreme loading. Workshop on reliability based code calibration
Tian Z, Zhang Y (2021) Numerical estimation of the typhoon-induced wind and wave fields in Taiwan Strait. Ocean Eng 239:109803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109803
Ueno T (1981) Numerical computations of the storm surges in Tosa Bay. J Oceanogr Soc Jpn 37:61–73
Vickery PJ (2005) Simple empirical models for estimating the increase in the central pressure of tropical cyclones after landfall along the coastline of the United States. J Appl Meteorol 44(12):1807–1826. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2310.1
Vickery P, Skerlj P, Twisdale L (2000) Simulation of hurricane risk in the US using empirical track model. J Struct Eng 126(10):1222–1237. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9445(2000)126:10(1222)
Vijayan L, Huang W, Ma M, Ozguven E, Ghorbanzadeh M, Yang J, Yang Z (2023) Improving the accuracy of hurricane wave modeling in Gulf of Mexico with dynamically-coupled SWAN and ADCIRC. Ocean Eng 274:114044. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114044
Weber N (1991) Bottom friction for wind sea and swell in extreme depth-limited situations. J Phys Oceanogr 21(1):149–172. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1991)021%3c0149:bffwsa%3e2.0.co;2
Yan Z, Wu G, Liang B, Li P (2020) A stochastic tropical cyclone model for the northwestern Pacific Ocean with improved track and intensity representations. Appl Ocean Res 105:102423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2020.102423
Young IR (1988) Parametric hurricane wave prediction model. J Waterw Port Coast Ocean Eng 114(5):637–652. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(1988)114:5(637)
Zieger S, Kepert JD, Greenslade DJ, Aijaz S (2021) Assessment of tropical cyclone wave models for engineering applications. Ocean Eng 225:108748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.108748
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the support from Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province (Grant No. 2022B0101100001) and Marine Economic Development Special Program of Guangdong province (Grant No. 29 [2023]).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Wen, Z., Wang, F., Wan, J. et al. Assessment of the tropical cyclone-induced risk on offshore wind turbines under climate change. Nat Hazards 120, 5811–5839 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06390-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06390-3