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Spatial analysis of earthquake-prone rural areas and residents' preparedness

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Abstract

In impoverished rural areas, natural disasters, notably earthquakes, have a substantial impact, necessitating the identification of vulnerable regions and the development of comprehensive disaster mitigation strategies. This study conducted a spatial analysis of earthquake-prone rural areas in Abhar, Iran, to assess their seismic status and the preparedness of residents. The study comprised two segments, the first utilized the VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje) Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Model within ArcGIS, incorporating 10 factors. The second phase entailed a survey in which 379 questionnaires were gathered from residents and subsequently subjected to analysis using SPSS software. The spatial analysis categorized rural areas into three groups, distinguishing between high, low, and moderate seismic risks, with 39 locations falling into the moderate and high-risk categories. Among the factors analyzed, certain elements, such as access to health centers in rural and nearby urban areas, as well as the availability of emergency centers like fire stations, emerged as neglected areas, necessitating immediate reinforcement or establishment. Moreover, the outcomes regarding local preparedness revealed deficiencies across all domains, encompassing individual, physical, economic, and accessibility aspects. Furthermore, the research findings underscored a pronounced economic fragility, with accessibility factors exerting direct or indirect influence on the overall susceptibility of the situation. This research provides a holistic understanding by integrating natural and man-made factors with the current preparedness status of residents to reveal a pressing need for optimizing the spatial allocation of essential services, such as health and emergency facilities. Additionally, enhancing economic conditions and implementing training initiatives are imperative for bolstering community preparedness. These findings have significant implications for managers, decision-makers, and government authorities committed to enhancing public safety and mitigating earthquake hazards.

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  1. Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States

    Mehdi Hajilo & Lori Pennington-Gray

  2. University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Amir Talkhab

  3. Richardson Family SmartState Center for Economic Excellence in Tourism and Economic Development, University of South Carolina, Columbia, United States

    Mehdi Hajilo

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Hajilo, M., Talkhab, A. & Pennington-Gray, L. Spatial analysis of earthquake-prone rural areas and residents' preparedness. Nat Hazards 120, 4101–4130 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06364-5

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