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Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan

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This study examines the drought patterns in Pakistan's Sindh Province (low-riparian of the Indus Basin) from 1902 to 2015 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on 3-month and 12-month timescales. The spatial "K"luster analysis using tree edge removal method was used to divide the study area into four zones with similar climatic characteristics. Then, the run theory was applied to characterize droughts (durations, severity, intensity, and peaks) in each zone. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test was also applied to analyze statistically significant trends by zone and drought characteristic. It was found that all four zones experienced a decrease in SPEI throughout the analyzed period. The effects of climate change are more evident when we analyzed drought characteristics in two time slices, i.e., pre and post-1960. The results showed that in the post-1960 time slice, droughts increased in duration, severity, intensity, and peaks over the entire study area under both 3 and 12-month SPEI. The findings of this study can assist policymakers and water managers in devising policies for managing limited water resources under changing patterns of droughts in Sindh Province.

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Correspondence to Mansoor Ahmed.

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Hereby, I Mansoor Ahmed consciously assure that for the manuscript “Analyzing Drought Trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan” the following is fulfilled: (1) This material is the authors' own original work, which has not been previously published elsewhere. (2) The paper is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere. (3) The paper reflects the authors' own research and analysis in a truthful and complete manner. (4) The paper properly credits the meaningful contributions of co-authors and co-researchers. (5) The results are appropriately placed in the context of prior and existing research. (6) All sources used are properly disclosed (correct citation). Literally copying of text must be indicated as such by using quotation marks and giving proper reference. (7) All authors have been personally and actively involved in substantial work leading to the paper, and will take public responsibility for its content.

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Ahmed, M., Dars, G.H., Ahmed, S. et al. Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 119, 643–661 (2023).

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