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Assessment of seismic hazard including equivalent-linear soil response analysis for Dhaka Metropolitan Region, Bangladesh

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Abstract

Dhaka is one of the most populated cities in the world, which means that the occurrence of natural hazards will put the city in a critical situation. A seismic hazard analysis (SHA) is a prerequisite to reduce the risk of an earthquake event in Dhaka. This paper, focusing on the active faults of Bangladesh and the soil condition, represents the calculation of the peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration (SA), and amplification factor. The analysis here used an updated seismic catalog (up to 2020), three source models (linear, areal, and smoothed seismicity), and eight attenuation models (selected by ranking techniques). Data from drillings are used to build the soil model, and one-dimensional frequency-domain equivalent-linear analysis is applied to calculate the amplification factor and the acceleration on the surface. The results show that the PGA changes from 0.14 to 0.19 and from 0.33 to 0.46 on bedrock for a return period of 475 and 2475 years, respectively. The worst-case scenario for Dhaka is the movement of the Jamuna Fault (Madhapur section), which can cause a PGA from 0.08 to 0.68 on bedrock. The results also suggest that the soil can amplify the acceleration up to 2.4 times. PGA on the surface for the return period of 475 years varies from 0.18 to 0.41. The design spectra and zonation maps are presented in the paper.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the World Bank for financing the article processing charge. Additionally, we would like to express our gratitude to Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (RAJUK) for their assistance and support. The current research is being undertaken in collaboration with Protek-Yapi, NKY, and Sheltech, ECCs. The authors would like to express their gratitude to the management and staff of these companies for their cooperation.

Funding

This study was funded by World Bank. The current research is being undertaken in collaboration with Protek-Yapi, NKY, and Sheltech, ECCs.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bonyan Zamin Paydar Consulting Engineers, Tehran, Iran

    Masoud Mojarab, Nazi Norouzi, Mahdokht Bayati, Zeinab Asadi & Mohamad Eslami

  2. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tajrish, Iran

    Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany

  3. Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha, Urban Resilience Project, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Abdul-Latif Helaly

  4. Protek-Yapi Consulting Engineers, Istanbul, Turkey

    Sara Khoshnevis

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MM and MGA helped in methodology; ZA helped in geology; NN, MB, and ME worked in seismic hazard analysis and investigation; MB and NN helped in writing—original draft preparation; MM, MGA, and ALH helped in writing—review and editing; and SK contributed to funding acquisition. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Mojarab, M., Norouzi, N., Bayati, M. et al. Assessment of seismic hazard including equivalent-linear soil response analysis for Dhaka Metropolitan Region, Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 117, 3145–3180 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05981-4

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