Abstract
The Leh Valley which lies within the Trans Himalayan state of Ladakh, India, is known to be affected almost annually by debris flows ranging from minor to catastrophic scale events. The effect has been getting magnified due to increased urbanization and rapid growth in tourism industry. Though these flows are triggered by intense and abnormal rainfall events the conditioning factor has always been the topography and sediment availability. A lucid acknowledgement of the terrain condition and the degree of vulnerability of such events is required. For this a detail investigation of sediment availability, topographic conditions and their relation with known events becomes crucial. This study utilizes index of connectivity (IC) model to understand the sediment source-sink relationship and farther applied Flow-R model to simulate the probable scenario of events through predefined algorithms. We then use the Weights of evidence (WOE) method to compute the statistical probability of debris flow occurrence. This paper demonstrates the application of these three independent techniques and their implementation in a highly rugged terrain of Ladakh which is a region of frequent debris flows onslaught. The IC and Flow-R models are found to be counter supportive and effective in delineating areas which could be affected by flows that will solely originate in upstream areas where high angle channels directly connected to sediment sources are present. WOE-based model determines the probability of the rare and extensive flows that results from downward integration of other drainage networks in an open fan area.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the Director, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, for supporting the research.
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We thank the director of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, for providing laboratory and financial support.
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PS conceived the idea and supervised the study. The original draft of this manuscript was prepared by CPS along with data analysis. AK and PC helped in field work and DGPS survey. PC helped in computing the weights of evidence. PS, AK, UKS and MKJ edited the manuscript. MKJ helped in preparing and analyzing the land use land cover map of the study area.
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Sharma, C.P., Kumar, A., Chahal, P. et al. Debris flow susceptibility assessment of Leh Valley, Ladakh, based on concepts of connectivity, propagation and evidence-based probability. Nat Hazards 115, 1833–1859 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05619-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05619-x