Abstract
The deformation prediction of the chamber roof is crucial in underground mining. Combined with Flac3D numerical simulation, the experimental design methodologies, including single-factor test (SFT), Plackett–Burman design (PBD), steepest ascent design, and response surface methodology, were used to evaluate the effect of multiple variables on the chamber roof deformation. Firstly, eight factors that affected the vertical displacement (Ds) of the chamber roof were selected, and the sensitive interval of every factor was obtained through SFT. Then, four factors that significantly affect the results were screened by PBD: cohesion (Co), stope length (Ls), stope width (Ws), and internal friction angle (fr). Twenty-nine groups of response surface schemes with 4 factors and 3 levels satisfying the Box–Behnken design (BBD) were simulated. Through the result analysis of variance (ANOVA) and sensitivity, the influence order of each factor on Ds can be determined: Ws >Ls >fr > Co > interaction between Co and fr > interaction between Ls and Ws. Finally, using the prediction model, the roof deformation of 0#N stope of a lead–zinc mine was predicted and the error was analyzed. The relative errors between the prediction value and the numerical simulation value, the measured value are 0.7% and 4.3%, respectively, which indicates that the prediction model is reasonable and has a certain reference value for mine safety.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdellah W, Raju GD, Mitri HS, Thibodeau D (2014) Stability of underground mine development intersections during the life of a mine plan. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 72:173–181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2014.09.002
Ahmadi A, Heidarzadeh S, Mokhtari AR, Darezereshki E, Harouni HA (2014) Optimization of heavy metal removal from aqueous solutions by maghemite (γ-Fe2O3) nanoparticles using response surface methodology. J Geochemical Explor 147:151–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2014.10.005
Barton N (2002) Some new Q-value correlations to assist in site characterisation and tunnel design. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 39(2):185–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1365-1609(02)00011-4
Brown ET (2012) Risk assessment and management in underground rock engineering–an overview. J Rock Mech Geotech Eng 4(3):193–204. https://doi.org/10.3724/sp.j.1235.2012.00193
Chen JY, Shi XZ, Zhou J, Qiu XY (2016) Deformation prediction and reliability analysis of underground mining shifted from open-pit based on orthogonal experiment. Chin J Nonferrous Met 26(11):2383–2392. https://doi.org/10.19476/j.ysxb.1004.0609.2016.11.015 (in Chinese)
Chen JY, Shi XZ, Zhou J, Qiu XY, Wang Y (2017) Influence on underground mining stability of stope during stacking dry stacked Gangue in open-pit. J Cent South Univ (science Technol) 48(10):2723–2731. https://doi.org/10.11817/j.issn.1672 (in Chinese)
Goh ATC, Zhang YM, Zhang RH, Zhang WG, Xiao Y (2017) Evaluating stability of underground entry-type excavations using multivariate adaptive regression splines and logistic regression. Tunn Undergr Sp Technol 70:148–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2017.07.013
Heidarzadeh S, Saeidi A, Rouleau A (2018) Assessing the effect of open stope geometry on rock mass brittle damage using a response surface methodology. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 106:60–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2018.03.015
Heidarzadeh S, Saeidi A, Rouleau A (2019) Evaluation of the effect of geometrical parameters on stope probability of failure in the open stoping method using numerical modeling. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 29(3):399–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2018.05.011
Heidarzadeh S, Saeidi A, Rouleau A (2021) The damage-failure criteria for numerical stability analysis of underground excavations: a review. Tunn Undergr Sp Technol 107:103633. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2020.103633
Idris MA, Saiang D, Nordlund E (2011) Probabilistic analysis of open stope stability using numerical modeling. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 3(3):194–219. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMME.2011.043849
Jia HW, Guan K, Zhu WC, Liu HL, Liu XG (2020) Modification of rock stress factor in the stability graph method: a case study at the Alhada Lead-Zinc Mine in Inner Mongolia, China. Bull Eng Geol Environ 79(6):3257–3269. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-020-01753-7
Li XB, Qiu JD, Zhao YZ, Chen ZH, Li DY (2020) Instantaneous and long-term deformation characteristics of deep room-pillar system induced by pillar recovery. Trans Nonferrous Met Soc China 30(10):2775–2791. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1003-6326(20)65420-6
Liu J, Zhao XD, Zhang SJ, Xie LK (2018) Analysis of support requirements for underground water-sealed oil storage cavern in China. Tunn Undergr Sp Technol 71:36–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2017.08.013
Lü Q, Low BK (2011) Probabilistic analysis of underground rock excavations using response surface method and SORM. Comput Geotech 38(8):1008–1021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2011.07.003
Mason RL, Gunst RF, Hess JL (2003) Designs and analyses for fitting response surfaces. Stat Des Anal Exp 6(4):568–613. https://doi.org/10.1002/0471458503.ch17
Mathews KE, Hoek E, Wyllie DC, Stewart SBV (1980) Prediction of stable excavations for mining at depths below 1000 metres in hard rock. Canmet Report, 802–1571
Mawdesley CA (2004) Using logistic regression to investigate and improve an empirical design method. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 41:1–6
Mawdesley CA, Trueman R, Whiten WJ, Synopsis (2001) Extending the Mathews stability graph for open-stope design. Min Technol 110(1):27–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2004.03.131
Milne D, Pakalnis R, Grant D, Sharma J (2004) Interpreting hanging wall deformation in mines. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 41(7):1139–1151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2004.05.004
Mohanto S, Deb D (2020) Prediction of plastic damage index for assessing rib pillar stability in underground metal mine using multi-variate regression and artificial neural network techniques. Geotech Geol Eng 38(1):767–790. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-019-01065-y
Mollon G, Dias D, Soubra AH (2009) Probabilistic analysis of circular tunnels in homogeneous soil using response surface methodology. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 135(9):1314–1325. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)gt.1943-5606.0000060
Potvin Y (1988) Empirical open stope design in Canada. Dissertation, University of British Columbia
Pytel W, Świtoń J (2014) Assessment of the Impact of Geomechanical Parameters Variability on Underground Excavations Stability Using Response Surface Method. Stud Geotech Mech 35(1):183–194. https://doi.org/10.2478/sgem-2013-0014
Qi CC, Fourie A, Du XH, Tang XL (2018) Prediction of open stope hangingwall stability using random forests. Nat Hazards 92(2):1179–1197. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3246-7
Qiu XY, Chen JY, Shi XZ, Zhang S, Zhou J, Chen X (2018) Deformation prediction and analysis of underground mining during stacking of dry gangue in open-pit based on response surface methodology. J Cent South Univ 25(2):406–417. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-018-3746-3
Saeidi A, Heidarzadeh S, Lalancette S, Rouleau A (2021) The effects of in situ stress uncertainties on the assessment of open stope stability: Case study at the Niobec Mine, Quebec (Canada). Geomech Energy Environ 25:100194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gete.2020.100194
Shi XZ, Huang GH, Zhang S, Zhou J (2011) Goaf surrounding rock deformation and failure features using Flac3D in underground mining shifted from open-pit in complex situation. J Cent South Univ (sci Technol) 42(6):1710–1718 (in Chinese)
Shi XZ, Ke WY, Gou YG, Huo XF, Kan ZH (2020) Optimization of strip pillar size in upper chamber of long-span stope. J Min Saf Eng 37(6):1084–1093. https://doi.org/10.13545/j.cnki.jmse.2020.06.002 (in Chinese)
Shnorhokian S, Mitri HS, Moreau-Verlaan L (2015) Stability assessment of stope sequence scenarios in a diminishing ore pillar. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 74:103–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2014.12.005
Vallejos JA, Delonca A, Perez E (2018) Three-dimensional effect of stresses in open stope mine design. Int J Mining Reclam Environ 32(5):355–374. https://doi.org/10.1080/17480930.2017.1309833
Vanaja K, Rani RHS (2007) Design of experiments: concept and applications of plackett burman design. Clin Res Regul Aff 24(1):1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/10601330701220520
Wang W, Luo ZQ, Qin YG, Yao S, Yan KJ (2017) A new nonlinear inversion method of geostress field in deep mining. J Cent South Univ (science Technol) 48(3):804–812. https://doi.org/10.11817/j.issn.1672-7207.2017.03.031 (in Chinese)
Wattimena RK, Kramadibrata S, Sidi ID, Azizi MA (2013) Developing coal pillar stability chart using logistic regression. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 58:55–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2012.09.004
Yilmaz O, Unlu T (2013) Three dimensional numerical rock damage analysis under blasting load. Tunn Undergr Sp Technol 38:266–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2013.07.007
Yu Z, Shi XZ, Zhou J, Huang RD, Gou YG (2020) Advanced prediction of roadway broken rock zone based on a novel hybrid soft computing model using gaussian process and particle swarm optimization. Appl Sci 10(17):1–15. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10176031
Zhang ZG, Shi XZ, Qiu XY (2022) Stability evaluation of inclined orebody stopes by Using Mathews stability synthetic graph and numerical modeling of static and dynamic loads. Chin J Nonferrous Met 32(5):1504–1514. https://doi.org/10.11817/j.ysxb.1004.0609.2021-40168 (in Chinese)
Zhao W, Chen C, Liu Q, Feng TT, Zhou HB (2010) Optimization of medium for thermostable α-amylase fermentation using Minitab. J Cent South Univ (sci Technol) 41(5):1652–1657 (in Chinese)
Zhou JY, Yu XJ, Ding C, Wang ZP, Zhou QQ, Pao H, Cai WM (2011) Optimization of phenol degradation by Candida tropicalis Z-04 using Plackett-Burman design and response surface methodology. J Environ Sci 23(1):22–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1001-0742(10)60369-5
Zhou J, Li XB, Mitri HS (2015) Comparative performance of six supervised learning methods for the development of models of hard rock pillar stability prediction. Nat Hazards 79(1):291–316. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1842-3
Zhou ZL, Zang HZ, Cao WZ, Du XM, Chen L, Ke CT (2019) Risk assessment for the cascading failure of underground pillar sections considering interaction between pillars. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 124:104142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2019.104142
Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Project of China (Grant Nos. 52004329 and 51874350), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Central South University (Grant Nos. 2022ZZTS0083).
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation Project of China (Xianyang Qiu, 52004329). National Natural Science Foundation Project of China (Xiuzhi Shi, 51874350). The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Central South University (Zongguo Zhang, 2022ZZTS0083).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
ZZ was involved in investigation, software, writing—original draft. XQ helped in project administration, software, writing—review and editing. XS contributed to supervision, writing—review and editing. ZY helped in software, writing—review.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, Z., Qiu, X., Shi, X. et al. Chamber roof deformation prediction and analysis of underground mining using experimental design methodologies. Nat Hazards 115, 757–777 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05573-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05573-8