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Numerical assessment of coastal multihazard vulnerability in Tokyo Bay

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Abstract

Many bays worldwide are susceptible to coastal hazards such as storm surges, river floods, and tsunamis. Because most previous studies have focused on one or two of the above-mentioned hazards, in this study, we assess coastal vulnerability based on all three hazards. To accommodate the increase in the number of cases in multihazard analysis, an efficient method based on an estimated overflow volume without computing for inundation is proposed. Subsequently, the method is validated via a comparison with inundation simulation. It is shown that when the free overflow is dominant, the result yielded by the method is consistent with that of the inundation simulation. Using Tokyo Bay as the study area, an efficient method is applied to multihazard vulnerability assessment. By comparing the overflow volume maps and maximum anomaly distribution along the coast for four types of hazards, we investigate the characteristics of different types of hazards and identify the differences between single and multiple hazards. Furthermore, we compare the differences between superposing and concurrent computation methods for multiple hazards. It is discovered that the linear superposing method tends to overestimate the total water elevation in coastal regions; however, in the coast, where the superposing method underestimates multihazard anomalies, dike upgrades must be considered.

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Acknowledgements

The first author thanks for the financial support by China Scholarship Council (Grant No.: 201606270197). This study was partially supported by JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Number: JP20H02250). Bathymetry data around Japan were provided by Japan Oceanographic Data Center (JODC). DEM is downloaded from the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (https://fgd.gsi.go.jp/download/menu.php). The authors appreciate Dr. Changsheng Chen at University of Massachusetts Dartmouth and his team for providing the FVCOM model. The computation was carried out using the computer resource offered under the category of General Projects by Research Institute for Information Technology, Kyushu University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Hydraulic and Waterway Engineering of the Ministry of Education, School of River and Ocean Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, 400074, China

    Fei Liu

  2. Engineering Laboratory of Environmental Hydraulic Engineering of Chongqing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, 400074, China

    Fei Liu

  3. Department of Socio-Cultural Environmental Studies, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8563, Japan

    Jun Sasaki & Jundong Chen

  4. Graduate Program in Sustainability Science-Global Leadership Initiative, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8563, Japan

    Yulong Wang

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  1. Fei Liu
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Contributions

The design of the present study was originally developed by FL under the supervision of JS. Numerical simulation and analysis were performed by FL. The first draft of the manuscript was prepared by FL with the revision by JS. JC and YW contributed to the mesh generation as well as the design of the multihazard scenarios. JC conducted part of the analysis in river flood simulation. All the authors made comments, which were accommodated by FL. All authors confirmed and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Fei Liu.

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Fei Liu, Jun Sasaki, Jundong Chen and Yulong Wang declare no competing interests.

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Liu, F., Sasaki, J., Chen, J. et al. Numerical assessment of coastal multihazard vulnerability in Tokyo Bay. Nat Hazards 114, 3597–3625 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05533-2

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