Abstract
In Asia and the Pacific, the agriculture sector is the most important, but it is also the most at risk from climate chnage. Droughts are one of the main sources of disaster risks that can change yield levels and cause sizeable productivity losses in agricultural products. In response, the farmers are taking a number of climate-related risk-reduction steps. As a result, this study has investigated farmers' preferences for climate change adaptation strategies as well as their socioeconomic determinants. A random sample of 200 farmers in Nowshehra, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, were surveyed. A multivariate probit model was used in the study to determine the relationship between independent variables and farmers decisions to implement a specific adaptation strategy. According to the findings of the study, the most common methods of coping with drought were rainwater harvesting, soil conservation, changing crop planting dates, ponds, and terraces with spillways. Furthermore, the study highlighted the role of socio-economic determinants in the adoption of these adaptation strategies. In light of these findings, the government may choose to help these farmers by providing them with ponds and water storage facilities. It is critical to educate farmers about climate change so that they can develop strategies to mitigate its negative effects.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
1USD = 140.31PKR, Source: https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/rates/m2m/M2M-History.asp.
References
Abbas G, Younis H, Naz S, Fatima Z, Hussain S, Ahmed M, Ahmad S (2019) Effect of planting dates on agronomic crop production agronomic crops. Springer, Berlin
Adaptation Fund (2019) Enhance community, local and national-level urban climate change resilience to water scarcity, caused by floods and droughts in Rawalpindi and Nowshera: Pakistan. Washington, D.C. Available at: https://www.adaptation-fund.org/project/enhance-community-local-national-level-urban-climate-change-resilience-water-scarcity-caused-floods-droughts-rawaldpindi-now-shera-pakistan/. [Accessed 24 January 2020]
ADB (2009) Building climate resilience in the agriculture sector of asia and the pacific: Asian development bank Manila, Philippines
Adger WN, Dessai S, Goulden M, Hulme M, Lorenzoni I, Nelson DR, Naess LO, Wolf J, Wreford A (2009) Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? Clim Change 93(3–4):335–354
Adhikari SP, Timsina KP, Lamichhane J (2018) Adoption and impact of rain water harvesting technology on rural livelihoods: the case of Makwanpur district. Nepal Rural Ext Innov Syst J 14(1):34–40
Ado AM, Savadogo P, Pervez AK, Mudimu GT (2019) Farmers’ perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate risks and their determinants: insights from a farming community of Aguie district in Niger. GeoJournal 85(2020):1075–1095
Ahmad R, Zulfiqar M (2019) Climate change-farmers’ perception, adaptation and impact on agriculture in the Lakki Marwat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Sarhad J Agric 35(3):880–889
Ahmed I, Ullah A, Rahman MH, Ahmad B, Wajid SA, Ahmad A, Ahmed S (2019) Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for agronomic crops climate change and agriculture. IntechOpen, London
Akinnagbe OM, Irohibe IJ (2014) Agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change impacts in Africa: a review. Bangladesh J Agric Res 39(3):407–418
Ali A, Erenstein O (2017) Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan. Clim Risk Manag 16:183–194
Antwi-Agyei P, Dougill AJ, Stringer LC, Codjoe SNA (2018) Adaptation opportunities and maladaptive outcomes in climate vulnerability hotspots of northern Ghana. Clim Risk Manag 19(2018):83–93
Arbuckle JG, Morton LW, Hobbs J (2013) Farmer beliefs and concerns about climate change and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation: evidence from Iowa. Clim Change 118(3–4):551–563
Arequipa P (2017) FAO regional office for Latin America and the Caribbean. Rome, Italy: food and agriculture organization of the United Nations (FAO). Available at: https://www.fao.org/americas/noticias/ver/en/c/892863/. [Accessed 25 December 2021].
Ashfaq M, Hassan S, Naseer MZ, Baig IA, Asma J (2008) Factors affecting farm diversification in rice-wheat. Pak J Agric Sci 45(3):91–94
Ashraf M (2019) Farmers’ coping and adaptive strategies towards droughts in Pishin district. Balochistan J Geogr Soc Sci 1(1):1–16
Ashraf M, Routray JK, Saeed M (2014) Determinants of farmers’ choice of coping and adaptation measures to the drought hazard in northwest Balochistan. Pakistan Nat Hazards 73(3):1451–1473
Blum A (2005) Mitigation of drought stress by crop management, from https://plantstress.com/drought-mitigation/
Calmon M, Feltran-Barbieri R (2019) 4 Ways farmers can adapt to climate change and generate income. World resource institute. Available at: https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/12/4-ways-farmers-can-adapt-climate-change-and-generate-income. [Accessed 13 January 2020]
Chavas J-P, Chambers RG, Pope RD (2010) Production economics and farm management: a century of contributions. Am J Agr Econ 92(2):356–375
Chowdhury MA, Hasan MK, Hasan MR, Younos TB (2020) Climate change impacts and adaptations on health of internally displaced people (IDP): An exploratory study on coastal areas of Bangladesh. Heliyon 6(9):e05018
Cook BI, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Coats S (2014) Global warming and 21st century drying. Clim Dyn 43(9–10):2607–2627
Debalke NM (2013) Determinants of farmers preference for adaptation strategies to climate change: evidence from north shoa zone of Amhara region Ethiopia. MPRA Paper (2013) p. 48753
Deressa TT, Ringler C, Hassan RM (2010) Factors affecting the choices of coping strategies for climate extremes. The case of farmers in the nile basin of Ethiopia. (IFPRI Discussion Paper). Available at: http://cdm15738.contentdm.oclc.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/5198/filename/5199.pdf. [Accessed 7 November 2015]
EEA (2010) Mapping the impacts of natural hazards and technological accidents in Europe. An overview of the last decade. Available at: Accessed
FAO (2014) Food and agriculture organization. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/i4020e/i4020e.pdf. [Accessed 5 March 2021]
FAO. (2015). Climate change and food security:risks and responses. Food and agriculture organization of the United Nations. Available at: https://www.fao.org/3/i5188e/I5188E.pdf. [Accessed 6 March 2019]
FAO (2021) The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security. Rome, Italy: Food and agriculture organization of the united nations (FAO). Available at: https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cb3673en. [Accessed 25 December 2021]
Frank E, Eakin H, López-Carr D (2011) Social identity, perception and motivation in adaptation to climate risk in the coffee sector of Chiapas. Mexico Glob Environ Change 21(1):66–76
Freudenberger M, Miller D (2010) Climate change, property rights, & resource governance. USAID. Available at: https://www.land-links.org/issue-brief/climate-change-property-rights-and-resource-governance-emerging-implications-for-usg-policies-and-programming/. [Accessed 16 March 2021]
Gerkensmeier B, Ratter BM (2018) Governing coastal risks as a social process—facilitating integrative risk management by enhanced multi-stakeholder collaboration. Environ Sci Policy 80:144–151
Government of Khyber Pakhtunkwa (2014) Crop statistics Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Agriculture department. Available at: http://kp.gov.pk/uploads/2019/05/Crops_Statistics_2013-14_KP.pdf. [Accessed 10 January 2020]
Government of Khyber Pakhtunkwa (2019) Final land use plan district Nowshera 2019. Provincial land use plan (PLUP) Urban policyand planning unit –planning and development department government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Peshawar. Available at: https://urbanpolicyunit.gkp.pk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Nowshera-Updated-18-02-2020.pdf. [Accessed 26 December 2021]
Hassan RM, Nhemachena C (2008) Determinants of African farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change: multinomial choice analysis. Afr J Agric Resour Econ 2(2):83–104
IFRC (2020) Annual report 2019. Geneva. Available at: https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/annual-report-2019/. [Accessed]
IPCC (2018) Global warming of 1.5°C. Geneva, Switzerland: World meteorological organization. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf. [Accessed 5 January 2021].
Iqbal MA, Ping Q, Abid M, Kazmi SMM, Rizwan M (2016) Assessing risk perceptions and attitude among cotton farmers: a case of Punjab province, Pakistan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 16:68–74
Jamagani Z, Bivan G (2013) Factors influencing farmers diversification of their cropping enterprises: a case study of sabon gari local government Area of Kaduna State Nigeria. Adult Educ 1(22):6869
Jianjun J, Yiwei G, Xiaomin W, Nam PK (2015) Farmers’ risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao District, China. Land Use Policy 47:365–372
Klopper E, Vogel CH, Landman WA (2006) Seasonal climate forecasts–potential agricultural-risk management tools? Clim Change 76(1–2):73–90
Kosmowski F (2018) Soil water management practices (terraces) helped to mitigate the 2015 drought in Ethiopia. Agric Water Manag 204:11–16
Kukkonen M, Pott L (2019) Why the fight against climate change depends on secure land tenure. Washington DC: World Bank. Available at: https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/why-fight-against-climate-change-depends-secure-land-tenure. [Accessed 16 March 2020].
Liu Y, Ren L, Ma M, Yang X, Yuan F, Jiang S (2016) An insight into the palmer drought mechanism based indices: comprehensive comparison of their strengths and limitations. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 30(1):119–136. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1042-4
Lutz W, Muttarak R, Striessnig E (2014) Universal education is key to enhanced climate adaptation. Science 346(6213):1061–1062
Mesfin W, Fufa B, Haji J (2011) Pattern, trend and determinants of crop diversification: empirical evidence from smallholders in Eastern Ethiopia. J Econ Sustain Dev 2(8):78–89
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391(1–2):202–216
NCDC (2015) Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: overview. Available at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/overview. [Accessed 15 October 2020].
O’Neill BC, Jiang L, Samir K, Fuchs R, Pachauri S, Laidlaw EK, Zhang T, Zhou W, Ren X (2020) The effect of education on determinants of climate change risks. Nat Sustain 3(7):520–528
Ojo T, Baiyegunhi L (2020) Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies and its impact on the net farm income of rice farmers in south-west Nigeria. Land Use Policy 95:103946
Olazabal M, Chiabai A, Foudi S, Neumann MB (2018) Emergence of new knowledge for climate change adaptation. Environ Sci Policy 83:46–53
Ozor N, Madukwe M, Enete A, Amaechina E (2012) A framework for agricultural adaptation to climate change in Southern Nigeria. Int J Agric Sci 4(5):243–252
PBS (2017) Final results of census-2017. Pakistan bureau of statistics, Islamabad. Available at: https://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/final-results-census-2017-0. [Accessed 6 March 2020]
Perneger TV, Courvoisier DS, Hudelson PM, Gayet-Ageron A (2015) Sample size for pre-tests of questionnaires. Qual Life Res 24(1):147–151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11136-014-0752-2
Pradeep, K., & Robert, M. (2007). Crop selection: adapting to climate change in Africa. Policy research working paper; No. 4307. World Bank, Washington, DC. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/7506. Accessed 6 Jan 2021
Rahman G, Rahman A-U, Ullah S, Dawood M, Moazzam MFU, Lee BG (2021) Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Pakistan. PLoS ONE 16(4):e0249718
Rehima M, Belay K, Dawit A, Rashid S (2013) Factors affecting farmers’ crops diversification: evidence from SNNPR. Ethiop Int J Agric Sci 3(6):558–565
Rehman T, Panezai S, Ainuddin S (2019) Drought perceptions and coping strategies of drought-prone rural households: a case study of Nushki District Balochistan. J Geogr Soc Sci 1(1):44–56
Rey D, Holman IP, Knox JW (2017) Developing drought resilience in irrigated agriculture in the face of increasing water scarcity. Reg Environ Change 17(5):1527–1540
Roka K (2019) Climate change adaptation (CCA). In: Filho WL, Azeiteiro U, Azul AM, Brandli L, Özuyar PG, Wall T (eds) Climate action. Springer International Publishing, Cham
Salmoral G, Ababio B, Holman IP (2020) Drought impacts, coping responses and adaptation in the UK outdoor livestock sector: insights to increase drought resilience. Land 9(6):202
Saqib SE, Ahmad MM, Panezai S, Ali U (2016a) Factors influencing farmers adoption of agricultural credit as a risk management strategy: the case of Pakistan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 17:67–76
Saqib SE, Ahmad MM, Panezai S, Rana IA (2016b) An empirical assessment of farmers’ risk attitudes in flood-prone areas of Pakistan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 18:107–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.06.007
Saqib SE, Arifullah A, Yaseen M (2021) Managing farm-centric risks in agricultural production at the flood-prone locations of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pak Nat Hazards 107(1):853–871. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04610-2
Sivakumar MV, Stefanski R, Bazza M, Zelaya S, Wilhite D, Magalhaes AR (2014) High level meeting on national drought policy: summary and major outcomes. Weather Clim Extrem 3:126–132
Tam J, McDaniels TL (2013) Understanding individual risk perceptions and preferences for climate change adaptations in biological conservation. Environ Sci Policy 27:114–123
Ullah R, Shah J (2019) Economic costs of managing climatic risks in agriculture: evidences from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan. Sarhad J Agric 35(1):155–160
Ullah R, Shivakoti GP (2014) Adoption of on-farm and off-farm diversification to manage agricultural risks: are these decisions correlated? Outlook on Agric 43(4):265–271
Ullah R, Jourdain D, Shivakoti GP, Dhakal S (2015) Managing catastrophic risks in agriculture: simultaneous adoption of diversification and precautionary savings. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 12:268–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.02.001
Ullah W, Nafees M, Khurshid M, Nihei T (2019) Assessing farmers’ perspectives on climate change for effective farm-level adaptation measures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Pakistan. Environ Monit Assess 191(9):547
Ullah R (2014) Production risk management and its impacts at the farm level: the case of Paksitan. Doctor,(Ph. D. Thesis), Asian Institute of Technology
Velandia M, Rejesus RM, Knight TO, Sherrick BJ (2009) Factors affecting farmers utilization of agricultural risk management tools: the case of crop insurance, forward contracting, and spreading sales. J Agric Appl Econ 41(1):107–123
Venkatappa M, Sasaki N, Han P, Abe I (2021) Impacts of droughts and floods on croplands and crop production in Southeast Asia–an application of google earth engine. Sci Total Environ 795:148829
World Bank (2019) Improved irrigation, better crops for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Farmers. Washington. Available at: https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/improved-irrigation-better-crops-khyber-pakhtunkhwa-farmers. [Accessed 23 March 2020]
Xu H, Craig BA (2010) Likelihood analysis of multivariate probit models using a parameter expanded MCEM algorithm. Technometrics J Statist Phys Chem Eng Sci 52(2):340–348. https://doi.org/10.1198/TECH.2010.09055
Yamane T (1967) Statistics: an introductory analysis, 2nd edn. Harper and Row, New York
Zhongming Z, Linong L, Wangqiang Z, Wei L (2018) Disasters causing billions in agricultural losses, with drought leading the way. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Available at: https://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1106977/icode/. [Accessed 25 December 2021]
Zulfiqar F, Ullah R, Abid M, Hussain A (2016) Cotton production under risk: a simultaneous adoption of risk coping tools. Nat Hazards 84(2):959–974
Zulfiqar IAMDM, Hanan NKDF, Gul MAQDN, Fahad NASJS (2019) Impacts of climate change on the health of older people in district Nowshera-Pakistan. Int J Afr Asian Stud 57(2019):1–6
Funding
The authors declare that this study has no external funding.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
Authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Ethical approval
The study has been approved by the ethical research committee of Institute of Management Sciences Peshawar. Moreover, written consents were obtained from the study particpants for taking part in interviews.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Khan, I.A., Rafiq, M., Panezai, S. et al. How do farmers cope with climate change? An analysis of alternative adaptation strategies in drought-hit areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—Pakistan. Nat Hazards 112, 2259–2275 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05264-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05264-4