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Socioeconomic impacts of environmental risks in the western Makran zone (Chabahar, Iran)

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Abstract

The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5 km inland. In this study, we show how climate change has affected urbanization along the tsunami-prone Makran coastline during the past 35 years. To address this issue, we have employed climate data, satellite altimeter radar, geomorphology and historical shoreline changes in order to shed light on the factors leading to a decline in access to freshwater resources and also rapid urbanization. We furthermore consider the interactions between environmental changes and human-induced coastal and catchment modifications in increasing socioeconomic vulnerabilities of littoral areas. The results of this study show that agricultural and freshwater management methods along the Chabahar coastal plain date back to at least 1808 CE, when wetter climate conditions characterized the area. Severe climate changes have been pronounced since 2000. Within this context, the majority of agricultural lands have been abandoned due to increasing drought intensity and duration. Decreasing cultivation and limited access to freshwater resources have led to extensive urbanization particularly for the two cities of Konarak and Chabahar. Enhanced soil erosion, increasing summer monsoon wind speed, sea-level rise and the growing number of strong storm events are some of the climate change-related hazards for high to very high socially vulnerable zones. In addition to environmental risks, poor urban planning has increased damage to coastal infrastructures such as ports and desalination plants. Furthermore, industrial and urban growth in the northwest of the Makran could further enhance socioeconomic damage by earthquakes and tsunamis.

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Acknowledgements

This study has been supported by Iran’s National Elites Foundation (postdoctoral contract No. 101/70872). The Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences (INIO-AS) provided logistical facilities.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science (INIOAS), Tehran, Iran

    Majid Pourkerman, Mohammad-Ali Hamzeh, Hamid Lahijani, Sedigheh Amjadi & Mohammad Afarin

  2. CNRS, ThéMA UMR 6049, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, MSHE Ledoux, Besançon, France

    Nick Marriner

  3. Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Christophe Morhange

  4. Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

    Sedigheh Amjadi

  5. Dipartimento di Scienze Della Terra, Università di Pisa, Via Santa Maria 53, 56126, Pisa, Italy

    Matteo Vacchi

  6. Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Azin Alley, Vesal Street, Tehran, Iran

    Mehran Maghsoudi

  7. Department of Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14115-175, Tehran, Iran

    Majid Shah-Hosseini

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  1. Majid Pourkerman
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  2. Nick Marriner
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  3. Mohammad-Ali Hamzeh
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  8. Mehran Maghsoudi
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  9. Majid Shah-Hosseini
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  10. Mohammad Afarin
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Correspondence to Majid Pourkerman.

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Pourkerman, M., Marriner, N., Hamzeh, MA. et al. Socioeconomic impacts of environmental risks in the western Makran zone (Chabahar, Iran). Nat Hazards 112, 1823–1849 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05230-0

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