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Technique of local probabilistic tsunami zonation for near-field seismic sources applied to the Bechevinskaya Cove (the Kamchatka Peninsula)

Natural Hazards volume 110, pages 373–406 (2022)Cite this article

Abstract

Currently, the most popular approach for assessing the tsunami hazard on a coast is the PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment). In this preliminary study, we develop one of the variants of the SPTHA (Seismic PTHA) method, adapted to solving local tsunami zonation problems for near-field sources. The approach is applied to assessing the tsunami hazard of the Bechevinskaya Cove located on the eastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula in the northern part of Avachinsky Bay. We propose the method, algorithms and results of probabilistic assessment of the cove's tsunami hazard in order to determine the safest water areas, in which the values of the intensity measures (IMs) of tsunami will not exceed the specified threshold values with the given Average Return Periods (ARPs). The method includes analysis of seismotectonics of the region, construction of a catalog of model tsunamigenic earthquakes, determination of their statistical characteristics, scenario numerical modeling of the dynamics of tsunami waves, calculations of the values of IMs that can be exceeded with the given annual rates (ARs), namely, on average 1 time in 100, 500, 1000 years. Spatial distributions of the maximum wave heights and maximum velocities are provided for the ARs. Three configurations of the water area are considered, including the possibility of constructing protective structures, and conclusions are drawn about their influence on the tsunami hazard assessments in the cove.

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Acknowledgements

The work was supported by the Program of the Presidium of RAS No. 27 ‘Fundamental problems of solving sophisticated practical problems using supercomputers’, project 0316-2018-0010 (head L.B. Chubarov). Data on tsunami deposits in Avachinsky Bay were obtained with the financial support of Russian Ministry of Education and Science (grant # 14.W03.31.0033 to N. Shapiro); the manuscript preparation was supported by the state assignment IViS FEB RAS #0282-2019-0005. The construction of the catalog of model tsunamigenic earthquakes was supported by the state assignment IEPT RAS AAAA-A19-119011490129-0.

Funding

The work was supported by the Program of the Presidium of RAS No. 27 ‘Fundamental problems of solving sophisticated practical problems using supercomputers’, project 0316–2018-0010. Data on tsunami deposits in Avachinsky Bay were obtained with the financial support of Russian Ministry of Education and Science (grant # 14.W03.31.0033 to N. Shapiro), the manuscript preparation was supported by the state assignment IViS FEB RAS #0282–2019-0005. The construction of the catalog of model tsunamigenic earthquakes was supported by the state assignment IEPT RAS AAAA-A19-119011490129–0.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Academician M.A, Lavrentiev avenue, 6, 630090, Novosibirsk, Russia

    L. B. Chubarov, V. A. Kikhtenko, O. I. Gusev & S. A. Beisel

  2. Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    A. V. Lander

  3. Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia

    T. K. Pinegina

  4. Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    T. K. Pinegina

Authors
  1. L. B. Chubarov
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  2. V. A. Kikhtenko
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  3. A. V. Lander
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  4. O. I. Gusev
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  6. T. K. Pinegina
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Correspondence to O. I. Gusev.

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Appendix 1

Appendix 1

See Table 3.

Table 3 Parameters in the set of model tsunami sources
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Chubarov, L.B., Kikhtenko, V.A., Lander, A.V. et al. Technique of local probabilistic tsunami zonation for near-field seismic sources applied to the Bechevinskaya Cove (the Kamchatka Peninsula). Nat Hazards 110, 373–406 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04951-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04951-y

Keywords

  • Tsunami hazard
  • Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA)
  • Kuril–Kamchatka trench
  • Seismotectonic models
  • Monte Carlo method
  • Scenario numerical modeling