Abstract
In moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions, estimating the socio-economic consequences of an earthquake on the regional scale is a costly and difficult task. This study analyses existing global earthquake databases to build a loss flat file of 445 earthquakes since 1967 with a magnitude greater than 4.5. The flat file includes information on the social consequences (e.g. fatalities and injuries) and economic losses (e.g. direct and indirect costs, number of buildings destroyed or damaged). In this study, exposed population and GDP at the date of the earthquake complete the flat file information, estimated thanks to the exposed area computed with an empirical relationship derived from the ground motion footprint provided by USGS ShakeMap. Earthquake consequences have increased since 1967 and follow a non-stationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to exposure. In order to assess the stationarity of the consequences, we assumed stationary losses and fatalities by normalizing consequences by the exposed wealth and population verified on a sub-set of earthquakes for which exact population is given by national census. The completeness of the flat file catalogue is compared to the international seismological catalogue, and we compute the annual rate of exceedance of human and direct economic losses relative to the exposed population and the associated GDP per capita. We show that, although the number of casualties and the absolute magnitude of losses increase as consequence of urban concentration, global losses, relative to effective exposure corresponding to macroseismic intensity of at least V, decrease. (Access to the flat file: https://www.isterre.fr/philippe-gueguen/earthquake-losses-database/).
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and material
The flat file is available at https://www.isterre.fr/philippe-gueguen/earthquake-losses-database
References
Allen TI, Wald DJ, Earle PS et al (2009) An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling. Bull Earthq Eng 7:701–718. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-009-9120-y
Anderson JG, Luco JE (1983) Consequences of slip rate constraints on earthquake occurrence relations. Bull Seismol Soc Am 73(2):471–496
Astiz L, Lay T, Kanamori H (1988) Large intermediate-depth earthquakes and the subduction process. Phys Earth Planet Inter 53:80–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-9201(88)90138-0
Atkinson GM, Wald DJ (2007) “Did You Feel It?” Intensity Data: A Surprisingly Good Measure of Earthquake Ground Motion. Seismol Res Lett 78:362–368. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.3.362
Bakun WH, Scotti O (2006) Regional intensity attenuation models for France and the estimation of magnitude and location of historical earthquakes. Geophys J Int 164:596–610. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02808.x
Benson C, Twigg J (2004) Measuring Mitigation Methodologies for assessing natural hazard risks and the net benefits of mitigation – a scoping study. Prevention Consortium, 153 pages. http://lib.riskreductionafrica.org/. Accessed Dec 2019
Bilham R (2009) The seismic future of cities. Bull Earthq Eng 7:839–887. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-009-9147-0
Bilham R (2010) Lessons from the Haiti earthquake. Nature 463:878–879. https://doi.org/10.1038/463878a
Bing R (2011) Natural disasters—taking a longer term view. The Lancet 377(9764):439–526
Brookshire D.S, Chang S.E, Cochrane H, Olson R, Rose A, Steenson J (1997) Direct and Indirect Economic Losses from Earthquake Damage. Earthquake Spectra 13(4): 683–701
Caillaud A (1998) Pour comprendre l'indice des prix, Edition 1998. Insee Méthodes n° 81-82. http://www.epsilon.insee.fr/jspui/bitstream/1/17924/1/imethode81-82.pdf. Accessed Dec 2019
CATDAT (2018) Damaging earthquake database Earthquake-Report.com. http://earthquake-report.com/. Accessed Dec 2018
Cha LS (1998) Assessment of global seismic loss based on macroeconomic indicators. Nat Hazards 17(3):269–283
Christoskov L, Samardjieva E (1984) An approach for estimation of the possible number of casualties during strong earthquakes. Bulg Geophys J4:94–106
Coburn A, Spence R (2003) Earthquake Protection. John Wiley & Sons
Daniell JE, Khazai B, Wenzel F, Vervaeck A (2011) The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database. Nat Hazard 11:2235–2251. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2235-2011
Daniell JE, Wenzel F, Khazai B (2010) The cost of historic earthquakes today – economic analysis since 1900 through the use of CATDAT. Proc. 2010 Australian earthquake engineering society conference. Perth, Western Australia, 15 pp
Diewert WE (1998) Index Number Issues in the Consumer Price Index. Journal of Economic Perspectives 12:47–58. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.12.1.47
Desinventar (2018) Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction database. http://www.desinventar.net/DesInventar/results.jsp. Accessed Dec 2018
Dunbar PK, Bilham RG, Laituri MJ (2003) Earthquake Loss Estimation for India Based on Macroeconomic Indicators. In: Beer T, Ismail-Zadeh A (eds) Risk Science and Sustainability Science for Reduction of Risk and Sustainable Development of Society. Springer, Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp 163–180
EM-DAT (2018) EM-DAT: International disaster database. Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium. http://www.emdat.be. Accessed Mar 2018
Eurostat (2018). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/fr/data/browse-statistics-by-theme. Accessed Dec 2018
Galbraith JK (2007) The New Industrial State. Princeton University Press
GEM (2018) Global Earthquake Model database https://storage.globalquakemodel.org/what/physical-integrated-risk/consequences-database/. Last Access Dec 2020
GFDRR (2019) Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery database. https://www.gfdrr.org/post-disaster-needs-assessments. Accessed Jul 2019
Giacomo DD, Engdahl ER, Storchak DA (2018) The ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalogue (1904–2014): status after the Extension Project. Earth System Science Data 10:1877–1899. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1877-2018
Goda K, Kiyota T, Pokhrel RM et al (2015) The 2015 Gorkha Nepal Earthquake: Insights from Earthquake Damage Survey. Frontiers in Built Environment.https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2015.00008
Grandori G, Drei A, Perotti F, Tagliani A (1991) Macroseismic intensity versus epicentral distance: the case of Central Italy. Tectonophysics 193:165–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(91)90196-Y
Guettiche A, Guéguen P, Mimoune M (2017) Economic and Human Loss Empirical Models for Earthquakes in the Mediterranean Region, with Particular Focus on Algeria. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 8:415–434. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-017-0153-6
Guha-Sapir D, Hoyois P, Wallemacq P, Below R (2016) Annual disaster statistical review 2016. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Institute of Health and Society (IRSS), Université catholique de Louvain – Brussels, Belgium, 91 pp. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/adsr_2016.pdf
Gülkan P, Reitherman RK (2014) Building Codes and Standards. In: Beer M, Kougioumtzoglou IA, Patelli E, Au IS-K (eds) Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp 1–14
Gutenberg B, Richter C. F (1949) Seismicity of the Earth. Geological Soc. of America, Special paper number 34, 273 pp. https://authors.library.caltech.edu/45746/1/Gutenberg_1941p1.pdf
Heatwole N, Rose A (2013) A reduced-form rapid economic consequence estimating model: Application to property damage from U.S. earthquakes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 4:20–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-013-0004-z
Holzer TL, Savage JC (2013) Global Earthquake Fatalities and Population. Earthq Spectra 29:155–175. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.4000106
Huppert HE, Sparks RSJ (2006) Extreme natural hazards: population growth, globalization and environmental change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364:1875–1888. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1803
INSEE (2019) Institut National de la Statistique et des études économiques. https://www.insee.fr/fr/metadonnees/source/indicateur/p1653/description. Accessed Jul 2019
ISC (2019) International Seismological Centre ISC-GEM Catalogue. http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/. Accessed Jul 2019
Istat (2019) Istituto nazionale di statistica. http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?QueryId=19101&lang=en#. Accessed Jul 2019
Jackson J (2006) Fatal attraction: living with earthquakes, the growth of villages into megacities, and earthquake vulnerability in the modern world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364:1911–1925. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1805
Jaiswal K, Wald D (2010) An Empirical Model for Global Earthquake Fatality Estimation. Earthq Spectra 26:1017–1037. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3480331
Jaiswal, K. S., and Wald, D. J. (2011). Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011–1116, 47p.
Jay D, Quitoriano V, Bruce C, et al (2012) USGS “Did You Feel It?” Internet-based macroseismic intensity maps. Annals of Geophysics. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-5354
Laub PM (1997) Report on costs and benefits of natural hazard mitigation. DIANE Publishing, Darby (Pennsylvanie) 52 pp. http://www.dianepublishing.net/
Levret A, Backe JC, Cushing M (1994) Atlas of macroseismic maps for French earthquakes with their principal characteristics. Nat Hazards 10(1–2):19–46. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00643439
Mazzotti S, Leonard LJ, Cassidy JF et al (2011) Seismic hazard in western Canada from GPS strain rates versus earthquake catalog. J Geophys Res https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB008213
McCaughey JW, Daly P, Mundir I et al (2018) Socio-economic consequences of post-disaster reconstruction in hazard-exposed areas. Nature Sustainability 1:38–43. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-017-0002-z
Nichols JM, Beavers JE (2003) Development and Calibration of an Earthquake Fatality Function. Earthq Spectra 19:605–633. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1596916
Nichols JM, Beavers JE (2008) World Earthquake Fatalities from the Past: Implications for the Present and Future. Nat Hazards Rev 9:179–189. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:4(179)
Nievas CI, Bommer JJ, Crowley H et al (2020a) Global occurrence and impact of small-to-medium magnitude earthquakes: a statistical analysis. Bull Earthquake Eng 18:1–35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00718-w
Nievas CI, Bommer JJ, Crowley H, van Elk J, Ntinalexis M, Sangirardi M (2020b) A database of damaging small- to-medium magnitude earthquakes. J Seismolog. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-019-09897-0
NOAA (2018) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration database. https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/form?t=101650&s=1&d=1. Accessed Dec 2018
Ogata Y, Katsura K (1993) Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues. Geophys J Int 113(3):727–738
Ohta Y, Goto N, Ohashi H (1983) An empirical construction of equations for estimating number of victims by earthquakes. Zisin II 36:463–466
Samardjieva E (2002) Estimation of the Expected Number of Casualties Caused by Strong Earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92:2310–2322. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120010112
Schumacher I, Strobl E (2011) Economic development and losses due to natural disasters: The role of hazard exposure. Ecol Econ 72:97–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.09.002
Shreve CM, Kelman I (2014) Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 10:213–235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.08.004
So E, Spence R (2013) Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach. Bull Earthq Eng 11:347–363. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-012-9373-8
Spence R (2004) Risk and regulation: can improved government action reduce the impacts of natural disasters? Building Research & Information 32:391–402. https://doi.org/10.1080/0961321042000221043
Spence R (ed) (2011) Human casualties in earthquakes: progress in modelling and mitigation. Springer, Dordrecht
Statbel (2019) L’office belge de statistique. https://statbel.fgov.be/fr/themes/population. Accessed Jul 2019
Stromeyer D, Grünthal G (2009) Attenuation relationship of macroseismic intensities in central Europe. Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:554–565. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080011
Taylor PJ (2013) Extraordinary Cities: Millennia of Moral Syndromes. Edward Elgar Publishing, World-Systems and City/State Relations
Tichelaar BW, Ruff LJ (1993) Depth of seismic coupling along subduction zones. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 98:2017–2037. https://doi.org/10.1029/92JB02045
UN (2019) United Nations DESA / Population Division. https://population.un.org/wpp/. Accessed Jul 2019
UNDRR (2007) United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/1037. Accessed Aug 2019
UNDRR (2015) United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Sendai Framework for Disater Risk Reduction 2015–2030. https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/43291. Accessed Aug 2019
United States Census Bureau (2019). https://www.census.gov/data.html. Accessed May 2019
USGS (2019) Prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response PAGER system. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/pager/. Accessed Jul 2019
Wald DJ, Quitoriano V, Heaton TH et al (1999) TriNet “ShakeMaps”: Rapid Generation of Peak Ground Motion and Intensity Maps for Earthquakes in Southern California. Earthq Spectra 15:537–555. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1586057
Wald DJ, Earle PS, Allen TI, Jaiswal K, Porter K, Hearne M (2008) Development of the U.S. Geological Survey’s PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response). Proc. 14th World Conf. Earthq. Eng, Beijing, China, p 8
Wen YK, Kang YJ (2001) Minimum Building Life-Cycle Cost Design Criteria. II: Applications. J Struct Eng 127:338–346. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2001)127:3(338)
Whitehead JC, Rose AZ (2009) Estimating environmental benefits of natural hazard mitigation with data transfer: results from a benefit-cost analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency hazard mitigation grants. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 14:655–676. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-009-9189-2
World Bank (2019) The World Bank IBRD/IDA. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sp.pop.totl. Accessed Jul 2019
World Trade Organization (2019). https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact4_e.htm. Accessed Aug 2019
Wyss M, Trendafiloski G (2011) Trends in the Casualty Ratio of Injured to Fatalities in Earthquakes. In: Spence R, So E, Scawthorn C (eds) Human Casualties in Earthquakes. Springer, Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp 267–274
Funding
This work was supported by the Fondation MAIF (URBASIS-Décision: Analyse multi-critères de la réglementation parasismique applicable aux bâtiments publics. Responsabilité acceptable), the European Union’s H2020 research and innovation programme under the Maria Sklodowska-Curie (URBASIS-EU, grant agreement N° 813137) and funding from Labex OSUG@2020 (Investissements d’avenir, ANR10-LABX56).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Conceptualization, PG and CD; methodology, CD and PG; validation, PG; formal analysis, CD; data acquisition, CD; writing—original draft preparation, CD; writing—review and editing, PG; funding acquisition, PG. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they do not have any conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dollet, C., Guéguen, P. Global occurrence models for human and economic losses due to earthquakes (1967–2018) considering exposed GDP and population. Nat Hazards 110, 349–372 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04950-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04950-z