Abstract
Egypt is one Arab country that is vulnerable to flash floods caused by heavy and intensive rainfall. Different locations in Egypt are vulnerable to the hazards of flash floods, especially in Upper Egypt. Throughout history, Egypt witnessed a series of events of flash floods that lead to mortality, damages, and economic losses. The intensity and frequency of flash floods in Egypt vary from year to year according to a number of hydrological and climatological variables. Although several previous flash floods studies have been conducted in Egypt, studies on the governorate of Asyut are still limited. This study integrates the physical and social parameters in order to assess the vulnerability to flash floods. The objectives of this study are to shed light on flash floods in the study area, develop a vulnerability model to determine the regions vulnerable to the impacts of flash floods, and propose a flash flood alert system in the governorate of Asyut in Egypt to mitigate the impacts of flash floods and to avoid the loss of life and property. The AHP (analytical hierarchy process) is used for assigning the optimal criterion weight of the considered vulnerability parameters based on the responses of eight expert respondents to an online Google forms questionnaire. The highest weighted flash floods causative parameters are population density (27.4%), precipitation (22.1%), total population (16.4%), and elevation (10.2%), respectively. The results reveal that Asyut is one of the Egyptian governorates prone to flash floods’ impacts, especially in Dayrut, Al-Qusiyah, and Abnub, urban districts. The findings of this study are expected to be useful to policymakers and responsible authorities for better disaster risk management and for dealing with the flash floods events in the future.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abd-El Monsef H (2018) A mitigation strategy for reducing flood risk to highways in arid regions: a case study of the El-Quseir–Qena highway in Egypt. J Flood Risk Manag 11:159–172. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12190
Abdel-Fattah M, Saber M, Kantoush SA, Khalil MF, Sumi T, Sefelnasr AM (2017) A hydrological and geomorphometric approach to understanding the generation of Wadi flash floods. Water 9:553. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9070553
Abuzied SM, Mansour BMH (2018) Geospatial hazard modeling for the delineation of flash flood-prone zones in Wadi Dahab basin, Egypt. J Hydroinf 21(1):180–206. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2018.043
Alfieri L, Berenguer M, Knechtl V, Liechti K, Sempere-Torres D (2015) Flash flood forecasting based on rainfall thresholds. Handbook of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin
Ali H, Mishra V (2017) Contrasting response of rainfall extremes to increase in surface air and dewpoint temperatures at urban locations in India. Sci Rep 7:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01306-1
Ali SA, Parvin F, Pham QB, Vojtek M, Vojteková J, Costache R, Linh NTT, Nguyen HQ, Ahmad A, Ghorbani MA (2020) GIS-based comparative assessment of flood susceptibility mapping using hybrid multi-criteria decision-making approach, naïve Bayes tree, bivariate statistics and logistic regression: A case of Topľa basin, Slovakia. Ecol Ind 117(106620):1–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106620
Arab Republic of Egypt, Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, CAPMAS, Statistical Year Book of ARE’, 2016. http://www.capmas.gov.eg
Aroca-Jimenez E et al (2017) Construction of an integrated social vulnerability index in urban areas prone to flash flooding. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 17:1541–1557. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1541-2017
Ashmawy MH, Nassim AS (1998) Hydrological impact and assessment of morphometric aspects of Wadi El-Assiuti Basin, Eastern Desert. J Remote Sens Space Sci 1:207–232
Ashour MM (2002) Flashfloods in Egypt (a case study of Drunka village–Upper Egypt). Bull Soc Geog Egypte 75:101–114
Attia MKK, Shendi MM, El-Desoky MA, Mohamed AGh (2016) The use of RS and GIS for assessment of Wadi El-Assiuty soils, Egypt. Assiut J Agric Sci 47(5):192–220
Azmeri A, Isa AH (2018) An analysis of physical vulnerability to flash floods in the small mountainous watershed of Aceh Besar Regency, Aceh province, Indonesia. Jamba 10(1):550. https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v10i1.550
Azmeria A, Hadihardaja IK, Vadiya R (2016) Identification of flash flood hazard zones in mountainous small watershed of Aceh Besar Regency, Aceh Province, Indonesia. Egyptian J Remote Sens Space Sci 19(1):143–160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2015.11.001
Barasa BN, Perera EDP (2018) Analysis of land use change impacts on flash flood occurrences in the Sosiani River basin Kenya. Int J River Basin Manag 16(2):179–188. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2017.1411922
Bhuiyan TR, Hasan MI (2018) Direct Impact of Flash Floods in Kuala Lumpur City: Secondary Data-Based Analysis. ASM Sci J 11(3):145–157
Borga M, Stoffel M, Marchi L, Marra F, Jakob M (2014) ‘Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: Flash floods and debris flow. J Hydrol 518:194–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.022
Brémond P, Grelot F, Agenais AL (2013) Flood damage assessment on agricultural areas: review and analysis of existing methods. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Calianno M, Ruin I, Gourley JJ (2013) Supplementing flash flood reports with impact classifications. J Hydrol 477:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.09.036
Cools J, Vanderkimpen P, El Afandi G, Abdelkhalek A, Fockedey S, El Sammany M, Abdalla G, El Bihery M, Bauwens W, Huygens M (2012) An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:443–457. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-443-2012
Cozannet GL, Garcin M, Bulteau T, Mirgon C, Yates ML, Mendez M, Baills A, Idier D, Oliveros C (2013) An AHP-derived method for mapping the physical vulnerability of coastal areas at regional scales. Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 13:1209–1227
Dano UL (2020) Flash flood impact assessment in Jeddah City: an analytic hierarchy process approach. Hydrology 7(10):1–15. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7010010
Dankers R, Arnell NW, Clark DB, Falloon PD, Fekete BM, Gosling SN, Heinkef J, Kimh H, Masakii Y, Satohj Y, Stackek T, Wadal Y, Wisser D (2014) First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project ensemble. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(9):3257–3261
Dewan TH (2015) Societal impacts and vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh and Nepal. Weather Clim Extremes 7:36–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.11.001
Du W, FitzGerald GJ, Clark M, Hou XY (2010) Health impacts of floods. Prehosp Disaster Med 25(3):265–272
El Meligy EM (2004) Groundwater resources evaluation of Assiut area. Ph.D. thesis, Fac. Sci., Assiut Univ., Egypt
El-Abd EA, Shabana AR, El-Sheikh AE (2011) Hydrogeological evaluation of west Dirout-Assiut area, Egypt. Egypt J Geol 55:14–31
El-Bastawesy M, Ali RR, Nasr AH (2008) The use of remote sensing and GIS for catchments delineation in Northwestern Coast of Egypt: an assessment of water resources and soil potential, Egypt. J Remote Sens Sp Sci 10:1–13
El-Behiry MG, Shedid A, Abu-Khadra A, El-Huseiny M (2006) Integrated GIS and remote sensing for runoff hazard analysis in Ain Sukhna industrial area, Egypt. Earth Sci 17:19–42
Elewa HH, Fathy RG (2005) Recent recharge possibilities determination of the Pleistocene aquifer system of Wadi El-Assiuti basin, Egypt, using hydrogeochemical and environmental isotopic criteria. J Appl Geophys 4(2):41–57
Elmoustafa AM, Mohamed MM (2013) Flash flood risk assessment using morphological parameters in Sinai Peninsula. Open J Modern Hydrol 3:122–129. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojmh.2013.33016
El-Rakaiby ML (1989) Drainage basins and flash flood hazard in selected parts of Egypt. Egypt J Geol 33:307–323
Elsadek WM, Ibrahim MG, Mahmod WE (2018) Flash flood risk estimation of Wadi Qena Watershed, Egypt using GIS based morphometric analysis. App Envi Res 40(1):41–50
El-Sawy EK, Bekhiet MH, Abd El-Motaal E, Orabi AA, Abd El-Gany MK (2011) Geo-Environmental Studies on Wadi Qena, Eastern Desert, Egypt by Using Remote Sensing Data and GIS. Al-Azhar Bull Sci 22(2):33–60
El-Shamy IZ (1992) Recent recharge and flash flooding opportunities in the Eastern Desert, Egypt. Ann Geol Surv Egypt 18:323–334
Elzawahry A, Elgamal M, Imam Y, Alrahbi H, Elshikaly S (2006) Flash floods-roads interaction: experience from the Arab Region. Third Gulf conference on roads (TGCR06), pp 477–486
Ezz H (2017) The utilization of GIS in revealing the reasons behind flooding Ras Gharib City, Egypt. Int J Eng Res Afr 31:135–142
Farhan Y, Anaba O, Salim A (2016) Morphometric analysis and flash floods assessment for drainage basins of the Ras En Naqb Area, South Jordan Using GIS. J Geosci Environ Protect. https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2016.46002
Frazier TW, Thompson L, Youngstrom EA, Law P, Hardan AY, Eng C, Morris N (2014) A twin study of heritable and shared environmental contributions to autism. J Autism Dev Disord 44(8):2013–2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-014-2081-2
Gabr S, El-Bastawesy M (2015) Estimating the flash flood quantitative parameters affecting the oil-fields infrastructures in Ras Sudr, Sinai, Egypt, during the January 2010 Event. Egyptian J Remote Sens Space Sci 18:137–149
Ghaffar AMK, Abdellatif AD, Azzam MA, Riad MH (2015) Watershed characteristic and potentiality of Wadi El-Arish, Sinai, Egypt. Int J Adv Remote Sens GIS 4(1):1070–1091
Ghany MKA (2015) Quantitative morphometric analysis of drainage basins between Qusseir and Abu Dabbab Area, Red Sea Coast, Egypt using GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques. Int J Adv Remote Sens GIS 4(1):1295–1322. http://technical.cloud-journals.com/index.php/IJARSG/article/view/Tech-478
Grillakisa MG, Koutroulisa AG, Komma J, Tsanis IK, Wagner W, Blösch G (2016) Initial soil moisture effects on flash flood generation—a comparison between basins of contrasting hydro-climatic conditions. J Hydrol 541:206–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.007
Guhathakurta P, Sreejith OP, Menon PA (2011) Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. J Earth Syst Sci 120(3):359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-011-0082-5
Halounova L, Holubec V (2014) Assessment of flood with regards to land cover changes. Procedia Econ Finance 18:940–947. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)01021-1
Hong Y, Adhikari P, Gourley JJ (2012) lash flood. Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards. Encyclopedia of earth science series. Springer, pp 324–325. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4399-4_136
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Solomon S et al. (eds) Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York (2007)
Jenson S, Domingue J (1988) Extracting topographic structure from digital elevation data for geographic information system analysis. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 54:1593–1600
Karagiorgos K, Heiser M, Thaler T, Hübl J, Fuchs S (2016) Micro-sized enterprises: vulnerability to flash floods. Nat Hazards 84(2):1091–1107
Khan MNH, Mia MY, Hossain MR (2012) Impacts of flood on crop production in Haor areas of two upazillasin Kishoregonj. J Environ Sci Nat Resour 5(1):193–198
Korany EA, Tempel RN, Gomaa MA, Mohamed RG (2013) Detecting the roles of the physiochemical processes on groundwater evolution, Assiut Area, Egypt—applications of hydrogeochemical and isotopic approaches. Egypt J Geol 57:63–83
Kvoĉka D, Ahmadian R, Falconer RA (2017) Flood inundation modelling of flash floods in steep river basins and catchments. Water 9(705):1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090705
Lotsari ES, Calle M, Benito G, Kukko A, Kaartinen H, Hyyppä J, Hyyppä H,Alho P (2018) Topographical change caused by moderate and small floods in a gravel bed ephemeral river—a depth-averaged morphodynamic simulation approach. Earth Surf Dyn 6:163–185. https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-163-2018
Booij MJ (2005) Impact of climate change on river flooding assessed with different spatial model resolutions. J Hydrol 303(1):176–198
Maghsood FF, Moradi H, Bavani ARM, Panahi M, Berndtsson R, Hashemi H (2019) Climate change impact on flood frequency and source area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios. Water 11:273. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020273
Mashaly J, Ghoneim E (2018) Flash flood hazard using optical, radar, and stereo-pair derived DEM: Eastern Desert, Egypt. Remote Sens 10(8):1204. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10081204
Michaud R, Pilon PJ (2006) Hydrologic hazards. In: Melching CS, Pilon PJ (eds) World Meteorological Organization/TD, No. 955
Milly PCD, Wetherald RT, Dunner KA, Delworth TL (2002) Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature 415:514–517. https://doi.org/10.1038/415514a
Min S-K, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC (2011) Human contribution to moreintense precipitation extremes. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09763
Moawad BM (2013) Analysis of the flash flood occurred on 18 January 2010 in Wadi El-Arish, Egypt (a case study). Geomatics Nat Hazards Risk 4(3):254–274
Moawad MB, Abdel Aziz AO, Mamtiminy B (2014) Flash floods in the Sahara: a case study for the 28 January 2013 flood in Qena, Egypt. Geomat Nat Haz Risk. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2014.885467
Modrick TM, Georgakakos KP (2015a) The character and causes of flash flood occurrence changes in mountainous small basins of Southern California under projected climatic change. J Hydrol Reg Stud 3:312–336
Modrick TM, Georgakakos KP (2015) The character and causes of flash flood occurrence changes in mountainous small basins of Southern California under projected climatic change
Mohamed SA (2019a) Application of geo-spatial analytical hierarchy process and multi-criteria analysis for site suitability of the desalination solar stations in Egypt. J Afr Earth Sci
Mohamed SA (2019b) Application of satellite image processing and GIS-spatial modeling for mapping urban areas prone to flash floods in Qena Governorate, Egypt. J Afr Earth Sci 158:103507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2019.05.015
Mohamed SA, El-Raey ME (2018) Monitoring and predicting land use/land cover changes in Alexandria City using land cover modeler and Markov Chain. Ass Univ Bull Environ Res 22(2)
Mohamed SA, El-Raey ME (2019a) Land cover classification and change-detection analysis of Qaroun and Wadi El-Rayyan Lakes using multi-temporal remotely sensed imagery. Environ Monit Assess 191:229. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7339-x
Mohamed SA, El-Raey ME (2019b) Vulnerability assessment for flash floods using GIS spatial modeling and remotely sensed data in El-Arish City, North Sinai, Egypt. Nat Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03571-x
Mukherjee S, Aadhar S, Stone D, Mishra V (2018) Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India. Weather Clim Extremes 20:45–53
Nikolopoulos EI, Anagnostou EN, Borga M (2013) Using high-resolution satellite rainfall products to simulate a major flash flood event in Northern Italy. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-09.1
Ozdemir H, Sampson CC, de Almeida GAM, Bates PD (2013) Evaluating scale and roughness effects in urban flood modelling using terrestrial LIDAR data. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:4015–4030
Petersen MS (2001) Impacts of flash floods In: Gruntfest E, Handmer J (eds) Coping with flash floods. NATO Science Series (Series 2. Environmental Security), vol 77. Springer, Dordrecht, 55: pp. 67–81, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0918-8_2
Pourghasemi HR, Pradhan B, Gokceoglu C (2012) Application of fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to landslide susceptibility mapping at Hazard watershed, Iran. Nat Hazard 63:965–996
Prama M, Omran A, Schröder D, Abouelmagd A (2020) Vulnerability assessment of flash floods in Wadi Dahab Basin, Egypt. Environ Earth Sci 79:114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-8860-5
Pregnolato M, Sean AF, Wilkinson M, Dawson RJ (2017) The impact of flooding on road transport: a depth-disruption function. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.06.020
Saaty TL (1980) The analytic hierarchy process: planning, priority setting, and resources allocation. McGraw-Hill, New York
Saharia M, Kirstetter PE, Vergara H, Gourley JJ, Hong Y, Giroud M (2017) Mapping flash flood severity in the United States. J Hydrometeorol. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0082.1
Sangati M, Borga M, Rabuffetti D, Bechini R (2009) Influence of rainfall and soil properties spatial aggregation on extreme flash flood response modelling: an evaluation based on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy. Adv Water Resour 32(7):1090–1106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.12.007
Sayed YA, El-Desoky MA, Gameh MA, Faragallah MA (2016) Land capability of some soils representing western limestone Plateau at Assiut. Assiut J Agric Sci 47(3):120–141
Shanableh A, Al-Ruzouq R, Yilmaz AG, Siddique M, Merabtene TD, Imteaz MA (2018) Effects of Land Cover Change on Urban Floods and
Shanableh A, Al-Ruzouq R, Yilmaz AG, Siddique M, Merabtene T, Imteaz MA (2018) Effects of land cover change on urban floods and rainwater harvesting: a case study in Sharjah, UAE. Water 10:631. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050631
Strahler AN (1952) Hypsometric (area-altitude) analysis of erosional topology. Geol Soc Am Bull 63(11):1117–1142
Taofik OK, Innocent B, Christopher N, Jidauna GG, James AS (2017) A comparative analysis of drainage morphometry on hydrologic characteristics of Kereke and Ukoghor basins on flood vulnerability in Makurdi Town, Nigeria. Hydrology 5(3):32–40. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20170503.11
Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138
Veijalainen N, Jakkila J, Olsson T, Backman L, Vehviläinen B, Kaurola J (2017) Impacts of climate change on extreme floods in Finland—studies using bias corrected Regional Climate Model data. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-602
Warner TT (2004) Desert meteorology. Cambridge University Press, Edinburgh, p 612
Vanderkimpen P, Rocabado I, Cools J, El-Sammany M, Abdelkhalek A (2010) Flaflom—an early warning system for flash floods in Egypt. WIT Trans Ecol Environ 133:193–202. https://doi.org/10.2495/FRIAR100171
Funding
This research received no external funding.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mohamed, S.A. Development of a GIS-based alert system to mitigate flash flood impacts in Asyut governorate, Egypt. Nat Hazards 108, 2739–2763 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04799-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04799-2