Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: Spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

While historically significant for ancient civilizations, the Indus basin is also known for its floods and complex anthropogenic management history. Resulting from years of modifications by the pre-British era Mughal rulers followed by the post-partition division of river waters among the two neighbors, India and Pakistan, Pakistan faces severe management and financial challenges of water management. This study investigates the intricacies arising from this complicated management doctrine for the lower Indus basin. A detailed remote sensing-based analysis of the significant floods to hit the lower Indus basin since 2000 has been provided. Flood years were identified, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the years 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2016 were used to map their spatiotemporal extents. Almost all the flood water accumulated in the north is released in one river channel of the lower Indus basin. Further, the challenges were exacerbated due to the excessive rainfall in 2011 and 2012 in southeastern Sindh. A trend analysis of rainfall data shows an increase in the southern basin in the last 21 years, particularly toward the central plains and Sindh Province. The floodwater accumulated in the lower basin for as many as ~ 425 days on average, stretching to ~ 800 days of stagnancy in some places. The water stagnation period has been the highest in the river floodplain, highly populated and cultivated. The analyses of the current study suggest that the riverine channel has been better managed after the 2010 floods; however, the monsoon’s shift in 2011 and 2012 led to widespread disaster in low-lying regions of Sindh Province.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Data is available with the corresponding author and can be made available upon reasonable request.

Code availability

Snippets used to produce maps and graphs can be shared on request.

References

  • Adnan S, Ullah K (2020) Development of drought hazard index for vulnerability assessment in Pakistan. Nat Hazards 103(3):2989–3010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahamed A, Bolten JD (2017) A MODIS-Based Automated Flood Monitoring System for Southeast Asia. J Int J Appl Earth Observ Geoinf 61:104–117

    Google Scholar 

  • Ahmad K (2003) Floods in Pakistan leave many dead or homeless J. The Lancet 362:542

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Akhtar S (2011) The south Asiatic monsoon and flood hazards in the Indus river basin. Pakistan J Basic Appl Sci. https://doi.org/10.6000/1927-5129.2011.07.02.05

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alam S, Ansari R (2000) Agricultural Land Scenario of Sindh Province Nuclear Institute of Agriculture Tando Jam, Pakistan

  • Ali A (2013) Indus basin floods: mechanisms, impacts, and management. Asian Development Bank. Available online https://think-asia.org/handle/11540/810. Accessed 12 Jan 2021

  • Ali J, Syed KH, Gabriel HF, Saeed F, Ahmad B, Bukhari SAA (2018) Centennial heat wave projections over Pakistan using ensemble NEX GDDP data set. J Earth Syst Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-018-0064-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ali SM, Khalid B, Akhter A, Islam A, Adnan S (2020) Analyzing the occurrence of floods and droughts in connection with climate change in Punjab province. Pak Nat Hazards 103:2533–2559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arai T (2012) Rebuilding Pakistan in the Aftermath of the Floods: Disaster Relief as Conflict Prevention. J Peacebuilding Develop 7:51–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Archer DR, Fowler HJ (2004) Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the upper indus basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 8:47–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aslam K, Rashid S, Saleem R, Aslam RMS (2015) Use of geospatial technology for assessment of waterlogging and salinity conditions in the Nara Canal Command area in Sindh. Pak J Geograph Inf Syst 7:438

    Google Scholar 

  • Atif S (2012) The lower indus basin: an anthropogenically modified basin under the influence of extreme events. Denis Diderot University, Paris VII, France

    Google Scholar 

  • Basharat M, Riaz MT, Jan MQ, Xu C, Riaz S (2021) A review of landslides related to the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake: implication and future challenges Natural Hazards:1–30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04688-8

  • Berz G (2000) Flood disasters: lessons from the past—worries for the future. In: Proceedings of the institution of civil engineers-water and maritime engineering, vol 142 (1). pp 3–8. https://doi.org/10.1680/wame.2000.142.1.3

  • Brakenridge GR (2018) Flood risk mapping from orbital remote sensing. IN: Schumann GJ-P, Bates PD, Apel H, Aronica GT (eds) Global flood hazard: Applications in modeling, mapping, forecasting, vol 33, First Edition, pp 43–54. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119217886.ch3

  • Dao PD, Liou Y-A (2015) Object-based flood mapping and affected rice field estimation with Landsat 8 OLI and MODIS data. J Remote Sensing 7:5077–5097

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Groeve T, Brakenridge G, Paris S (2015) Global flood detection system data product specifications. Joint research centre: brussels, Belgium. https://www.gdacs.org/flooddetection/Download/Technical_Note_GFDS_Data_Products_v1.pdf. Accessed 02 Jan 2021

  • Fayne JV (2015) A comparison of reclassification methods to improve an NDVI based flood map. Masters of science dissertation. George Mason University. http://ebot.gmu.edu/bitstream/handle/1920/9713/Fayne_thesis_2015.pdf. Accessed 06 Feb 2021

  • Fayne JV, Bolten JD, Doyle CS, Fuhrmann S, Rice MT, Houser PR, Lakshmi V (2017) Flood mapping in the lower Mekong River Basin using daily MODIS observations J. Int J Remote Sens 38:1737–1757

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fick SE, Hijmans RJ (2017) WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 37:4302–4315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gumma MK et al (2011) Changes in agricultural cropland areas between a water-surplus year and a water-deficit year impacting food security, determined using MODIS 250 m time-series data and spectral matching techniques, in the Krishna River basin (India). J Int J Remote Sens 32:3495–3520

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanif M, Khan AH, Adnan S (2013) Latitudinal precipitation characteristics and trends in Pakistan. J Hydrol 492:266–272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haq M, Akhtar M, Muhammad S, Paras S, Rahmatullah J (2012) Techniques of Remote Sensing and GIS for flood monitoring and damage assessment: a case study of Sindh province. Pak J Egyptian J Remote Sens Space Sci 15:135–141

    Google Scholar 

  • Hartmann H, Andresky L (2013) Flooding in the Indus River basin—a spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation records. Global Planet Change 107:25–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitt K (2011) Glacier change, concentration, and elevation effects in the Karakoram Himalaya. Upper Indus Basin J Mountain Res Develop 31:188–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holmes DA (1968) The recent history of the Indus. Geogr J 134:367–382. https://doi.org/10.2307/1792965

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hossain MS, Bujang JS, Zakaria MH, Hashim M (2015) Assessment of the impact of landsat 7 scan line corrector data gaps on Sungai Pulai Estuary seagrass mapping. J Appl Geomat 7:189–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hudson PF, Middelkoop H, Stouthamer E (2008) Flood management along the Lower Mississippi and Rhine Rivers (The Netherlands) and the continuum of geomorphic adjustment. Geomorphology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.07.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel W, Wanders N, Lutz A, Shea J, Bierkens M (2015) Reconciling high-altitude precipitation in the upper indus basin with glacier mass balances and runoff. J Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19:4673–4687

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jorgensen DW, Harvey MD, Schumm SA, Flam L (1993) Morphology and dynamics of the Indus River: Implications for the Mohen Jo Daro site Himalaya to the sea: geology, geomorphology and the Quaternary. Doi: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203414637_chapter_15

  • Kale VS (2003) Geomorphic Effects of Monsoon Floods on Indian Rivers. In: Mirza MMQ, Dixit A, Nishat A (eds) Flood Problem and Management in South Asia. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp 65–84. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-0137-2_3

  • Kazi A (2014) A review of the assessment and mitigation of floods in Sindh. Pakistan J Natural Hazards 70:839–864

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kazmi AH, Jan MQ (1997) Geology and tectonics of Pakistan. Graphic Publishers, Karachi Pakistan. https://lgc2016.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/geology-tectonics-of-pakistan-by-kazmi-qasimjan.pdf

  • Khalid B, Cholaw B, Alvim DS, Javeed S, Khan JA, Javed MA (2010) Khan AH (2018) Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for. J Natural Hazards 92:971–993

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khan MZ et al (2014) Effect of right bank outfall drain (RBOD) on biodiversity of the wetlands of Haleji wetland complex. Sindh J Canadian J Pure Appl Sci 8:2871–2900

    Google Scholar 

  • Khandelwal A, Karpatne A, Marlier ME, Kim J, Lettenmaier DP, Kumar V (2017) An approach for global monitoring of surface water extent variations in reservoirs using MODIS data J Remote sensing of. Environment 202:113–128

    Google Scholar 

  • Klein I, Gessner U, Dietz AJ, Kuenzer C (2017) Global WaterPack–A 250 m resolution dataset revealing the daily dynamics of global inland water bodies. J Remote Sens Environ 198:345–362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Konishi T (2018) Project information document-integrated safeguards data sheet-sindh barrages improvement project AF-P162117. The World Bank. http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/849641523529033367/pdf/Project-Information-Document-Integrated-Safeguards-Data-Sheet-Sindh-Barrages-Improvement-Project-AF-P162117.pdf. Accessed 17 Dec 2020

  • Kwak E (2013) Automatic 3D building model generation by integrating LiDAR and aerial images using a hybrid approach. Doctoral dissertation, University of Calgary. https://doi.org/10.11575/PRISM/25078

  • LAADS W (2008) Level 1 and atmosphere archive and distribution system. J National Aeronautics Space Administration. https://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/data/search.html. Accessed on 15 nov 2020

  • Laghari J (2013) Climate change: melting glaciers bring energy uncertainty. J Nature News 502:617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lashari BK, Khero ZI (2010) Disastrous effects of rain 2011 in Sindh, Pakistan. In: Proceedings of Symposium on “Emerging Phenomenon of Untimely Rains / Floods – 2011 in Pakistan”. Karahi Pakistan. https://pecongress.org.pk/images/upload/books/95-104-301%20DISASTROUS%20EFFECTS%20OF%20rain%202011%20in%20Sindh%20New%20mail%201.11.2012.pdf

  • Looney R (2012) Economic impacts of the floods in Pakistan. J Contemp South Asia 20:225–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Kraaijenbrink PD, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MF (2016) Climate change impacts on the upper indus hydrology: Sources, shifts and extremes. J PloS one 11:e0165630. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165630

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma B, Wu L, Zhang X, Li X, Liu Y, Wang S (2014) Locally adaptive unmixing method for lake-water area extraction based on MODIS 250 m bands. J Int J Appl Earth Observ Geoinf 33:109–118

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahessar AA, Qureshi AL, Siming IA, Kori SM, Dars GH, Channa M, Laghari AN (2019) Flash flood climatology in the lower region of Southern Sindh. J Eng Technol Appl Sci Res 9:4474–4479

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahmood S, Hamayon K (2021) Geo-spatial assessment of community vulnerability to flood along the Ravi River, Ravi Town, Lahore, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 106(1):2825–2844. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04568-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahmood S, Rahman A-u, Sajjad A (2019) Assessment of 2010 flood disaster causes and damages in district Muzaffargarh, Central Indus Basin. Pakistan J Environ Earth Sci 78:63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahmood S, Sajjad A & Rahman A-u (2021) Cause and damage analysis of 2010 flood disaster in district Muzaffar Garh, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 107:1681–1692. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04652-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinis S, Twele A, Strobl C, Kersten J, Stein E (2013) A multi-scale flood monitoring system based on fully automatic MODIS and TerraSAR-X processing chains. J Remote Sens 5:5598–5619

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Molnia BF (2008) Glaciers of North America -- Glaciers of Alaska. In: Williams RS, Ferrigno JG (eds) Satellite image atlas of glaciers of the world: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386-K. https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/p1386k/. Accessed 22 Jan 2021

  • Mukhopadhyay B, Khan A (2015) A reevaluation of the snowmelt and glacial melt in river flows within Upper Indus Basin and its significance in a changing climate J. J Hydrol 527:119–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Munawar HS, Hammad A, Ullah F, Ali TH (2019) After the flood: A novel application of image processing and machine learning for post-flood disaster management. In: Proceedings of the 2nd international conference on sustainable development in civil engineering (ICSDC 2019), Jamshoro Pakistan, pp 52–61. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Fahim-Ullah/publication/337773028_After_the_Flood_A_Novel_Application_of_Image_Processing_and_Machine_Learning_for_Post-Flood_Disaster_Management/links/5de98833a6fdcc28370938f4/After-the-Flood-A-Novel-Application-of-Image-Processing-and-Machine-Learning-for-Post-Flood-Disaster-Management.pdf

  • Munawar HS, Qayyum S, Ullah F, Sepasgozar S (2020) Big data and its applications in smart real estate and the disaster management life cycle: a systematic analysis big data and cognitive computing. 4:4. https://doi.org/10.3390/bdcc4020004

  • Mustafa D, Wrathall D (2011) Indus basin floods of 2010: Souring of a faustian bargain? J Water Altern 4(1):72–85

    Google Scholar 

  • Nazeer M, Bork H-R (2021) A local scale flood vulnerability assessment in the flood-prone area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan Natural Hazards 105:755–781

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nigro J, Slayback D, Policelli F, Brakenridge GR (2014) NASA/DFO MODIS near real-time (NRT) global flood mapping product evaluation of flood and permanent water detection J Evaluation, Greenbelt, MD 27. Nasa Report. https://floodmap.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov//documents/NASAGlobalNRTEvaluationSummary_v4.pdf

  • Palmer MA, Reidy Liermann CA, Nilsson C, Flörke M, Alcamo J, Lake PS, Bond N (2008) Climate change and the world’s river basins: anticipating management options J. Front Ecol Environ 6(2):81–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Partal T, Kahya E (2006) Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data J Hydrological Processes: An. Int J 20:2011–2026

    Google Scholar 

  • Paterson DL, Wright H, Harris PN (2018) Health risks of flood disasters. Clin Infect Dis 67:1450–1454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pervez MS, Budde M, Rowland J (2014) Mapping irrigated areas in Afghanistan over the past decade using MODIS NDVI J. Remote Sens Environ 149:155–165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Policelli F, Slayback D, Brakenridge B, Nigro J, Hubbard A, Zaitchik B, Carroll M, Jung H (2017) The NASA global flood mapping system. In: Remote sensing of hydrological extremes. Springer, Cham, pp 47–63. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43744-6_3

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Qureshi AS (2011) Water management in the Indus Basin in Pakistan: challenges and opportunities j. Mountain Res Develop 31:252–260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qureshi AL, Mahessar AA, Leghari ME-U-H, Lashari BK, Mari FM (2015) Impact of releasing wastewater of sugar industries into drainage system of LBOD Sindh, Pakistan. J Int J Environ Sci Develop 6:381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Razavi S, Vogel R (2018) Prewhitening of hydroclimatic time series? implications for inferred change and variability across time scales j. J Hydrol 557:109–115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarwar S (2013) Reservoir life expectancy in relation to climate and land-use changes: case study of the mangla reservoir in Pakistan. University of Waikato, Doctoral

    Google Scholar 

  • Schilling J, Vivekananda J, Khan MA, Pandey N (2013) Vulnerability to environmental risks and effects on community resilience in mid-west Nepal and south-east Pakistan J Environment. Nat Resour Res 3:27

    Google Scholar 

  • Schütte S, Kreutzmann H (2012) Social Vulnerability in Sindh recent floods as amplifiers of social crisis in pakistan. J Internationales Asienforum 43:199–221

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharma SK, Misra SK, Singh JB (2020) The role of GIS-enabled mobile applications in disaster management: A case analysis of cyclone Gaja in India. Int J Inf Manag 51:102030

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shroder Jr JF (2002) Himalaya to the sea: geomorphology and the Quaternary of Pakistan in the regional context. In: Himalaya to the Sea. Routledge, pp 21–47. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203414637-12/himalaya-sea-geomorphology-quaternary-pakistan-regional-context-john-shroder-jr

  • Sudaryo MK, Besral MF, Umniyati H, Guha-Sapir D (2020) Acute Infection Following Flood Disaster: an Example from Bojonegoro District East Java, Indonesia Indian. J Public Health Res Develop 11:2442–2448

    Google Scholar 

  • Syvitski JP, Brakenridge GR (2013) Causation and avoidance of catastrophic flooding along the Indus River. Pakistan J GSA Today 23:4–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Taye MT, Willems P (2015) statistical assessment of precipitation trends in the upper blue Nile river basin. J Stochastic Environ Res Risk Assess 29:1751–1761

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uddin K, Gurung DR, Giriraj A, Shrestha B (2013) Application of remote sensing and GIS for flood hazard management: a case study from Sindh Province. Pakistan J Am J Geograph Inf Syst 2:1–5

    Google Scholar 

  • Vermote E, Kotchenova S (2008) MOD09 (Surface Reflectance) User's Guide, Version 1.1, March, 2008 J Greenbelt, MD. http://modis-sr.ltdri.org/MAIN_SURFACE_PRODUCTAND%20USER%20GUIDE/MOD09_UserGuide.pdf. Accessed 02 Dec 2020

  • Water and Power Development Authority (2016) Tarbela 5th extension hydropower project: Environmental and social assessment – executive summary. Government of Pakistan Web R Pakistan floods: Situation Report No. 5 - Pakistan. http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/787431468290411161/pdf/SFG1900-V2-EA-P157372-Box394869B-PUBLIC-Disclosed-3-3-2016.pdf. Accessed 07 Jan 2021

  • Webster P, Toma VE, Kim HM (2011) Were the 2010 Pakistan floods predictable? J Geophys Res Lett 38(4):1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westra S, Alexander LV, Zwiers FW (2013) Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation J. J Clim 26:3904–3918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yao T et al (2012) Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan plateau and surroundings. J Nature Clim Change 2:663–667

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin L (2017) Street level urban design qualities for walkability: Combining 2D and 3D GIS measures Computers. Environ Urban Syst 64:288–296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu L, Shi Y, Gong P (2015) Land cover mapping and data availability in critical terrestrial ecoregions: a global perspective with Landsat thematic mapper and enhanced thematic mapper plus data J. Biol Cons 190:34–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series J. Hydrol Process 16:1807–1829

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

The article received no funding from any private, government, or not-for-profit organization.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographical Information Systems (IGIS), School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences & Technology, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Salman Atif & Muhammad Umar

  2. School of Built Environment, University of New South Wales, Kensington Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia

    Fahim Ullah

Authors
  1. Salman Atif
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Muhammad Umar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Fahim Ullah
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fahim Ullah.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Atif, S., Umar, M. & Ullah, F. Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: Spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events. Nat Hazards 108, 2357–2383 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04783-w

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04783-w

Keywords

Search

Navigation