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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies for Mumbai region

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Abstract

The present study attempts to understand and assess the seismic hazard of Mumbai using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with an updated catalogue of earthquake clubbed with recent knowledge on seismotectonics of the region. An updated catalogue of instrumental and pre-instrumental earthquake data within 300 km radius around the city has been compiled from different sources. The PSHA has been computed using two different seismic source models, viz., a fault (linear) and zone model (areal). A hybrid of five suitable ground motion prediction models (GMPM) consisting of widely accepted and latest GMPMs is used to compute the PSHA of Mumbai. The results obtained from different methodologies are integrated with logic tree approach to minimize the epistemic uncertainties in hazard calculation. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) at bedrock levels for 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are developed for Mumbai. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) on bedrock at eight different sites within Mumbai for spectral periods of 0.01—2 s is also computed. The low seismic hazard is observed and reasonably compared with the previous PSHA studies done for Mumbai region.

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source models (linear and areal sources), estimated maximum magnitude earthquake (maximum observed magnitude and 0.5 units incremented to the maximum observed magnitude) and GMPEs (five GMPEs) used for computation of seismic hazard in the region. Logic tree consists of 20 branches, wherein each branches are assigned equal weightages

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Data availability

Earthquake catalogue used in this study was compiled using data available online from various agencies such as National Center for Seismology (NCS), India (https://seismo.gov.in/content/seismological-bulletins), United States Geological Survey (USGS) https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ & International Seismological Centre (ISC) http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/search/catalogue/.

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Acknowledgements

GS and JK are thankful to the Director, Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Navi Mumbai, for providing valuable suggestions, guidance and kind permission to publish this work. This work is a part of the GS’s Ph.D research work. GS is thankful to his Ph.D supervisors, Prof. D. S. Ramesh, Director, IIG, Navi Mumbai and Prof. K. Vijaya Kumar, Director, School of Earth Sciences, Swami Ramanand Teerth Marathwada University, Nanded, for their continued guidance, motivation and support for carrying out the research work. JK is thankful to the NMRF research grant, IIG to support her research work. NS is thankful to the support and grant received from Earthquake Hazard Studies Group under the project MLP-6401-28 (DSN) of CSIR—National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad. The authors gratefully acknowledge the two anonymous reviewers for their detailed and critical review with constructive comments that significantly improved the article. The authors thank the Editor-in-Chief, Prof. Harsh K. Gupta, for valuable suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Geomagnetism (IIG), Plot No. 5, Sector-18, Near Kalamboli Highway, New Panvel, Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra, 410 218, India

    G. Surve & Jyotima Kanaujia

  2. CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad, 500007, India

    Nitin Sharma

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  1. G. Surve
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Correspondence to G. Surve.

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Surve, G., Kanaujia, J. & Sharma, N. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies for Mumbai region. Nat Hazards 107, 575–600 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04596-x

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