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Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin

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Abstract

Drought frequently impacts both the agricultural productivity and the well-being of farming communities in drought-prone areas of Australia, including the largest agricultural region in the country—the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). Improving drought preparedness of farming communities in the MDB could be achieved by building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought. In this study, a prospective I-EWS was investigated. Farming individuals were interviewed to inductively guide the selection of drought-related indices most appropriate for the study area. Based on interview results and desktop research, five drought-related indices directly relevant to the MDB were selected as inputs to the trigger levels for an I-EWS: the Standardised Precipitation Index, the Vegetation Health Index, Soil Moisture (percent of normal), the likelihood of exceeding median rainfall in a coming month, and the chance of El Niño. Based on these inputs, decision rules were formulated for a staged “WATCH,” “ALERT” and “DECLARATION” drought early warnings. These decision rules were tested for the intense dry period from 2017 to 2019 for five key agricultural Local Government Areas in the Northern MDB. It was found that all three stages of the drought I-EWS were adequately triggered, indicating that a warning lead time of 3–8 months could have been possible in the dry period. Data for the selected inputs are readily obtained from space-based products as well as national meteorological services and would be applicable to regions with limited observing networks or forecast capability. Thus, while the methodologies developed in this study and the resultant outcomes are tailored to the Northern MDB, this research ultimately serves as both a successful proof of concept for the drought EWS as well as a foundational base for the design of an operational user-centred I-EWS in susceptible to drought regions of Australia and other countries.

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Acknowledgements

Satellite precipitation estimates and derived products used in this study were provided by the NOAA/CPC and the JAXA through the WMO Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM) demonstration project for East Asia and Western Pacific. Surface-based rainfall observations, outputs from ACCESS-S1 and AWRA-L models, and ENSO statements were provided by the BoM. Authors express sincere gratitude to the Balonne, Goondiwindi, Maranoa, Murweh and Paroo farming communities of the Northern MDB for their valuable input to this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia

    Jessica Bhardwaj, Isabella Aitkenhead & Atifa Asghari

  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia

    Jessica Bhardwaj, Yuriy Kuleshov, Andrew B. Watkins, Isabella Aitkenhead & Atifa Asghari

  3. Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

    Yuriy Kuleshov

  4. The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia

    Yuriy Kuleshov

Authors
  1. Jessica Bhardwaj
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  4. Isabella Aitkenhead
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  5. Atifa Asghari
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Correspondence to Yuriy Kuleshov.

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Appendix: semi-structured question guide used for interviews

Appendix: semi-structured question guide used for interviews

Preamble

We are conducting research investigating drought management through a proactive approach rather than a reactive approach. The purpose of this interview is to understand the following things:

  • The key decisions you make before, during and after drought.

  • If and how you use any climate monitoring or warning tools.

  • What threshold of drought information you would trust to make decisions based off of?

Intro and personal context

  1. 1.

    Tell me how you became a grazier and if it is your primary source of income?

  2. 2.

    How long have you been living or working in the LGA?

Drought definition and drought related impacts

Questions about drought related impacts:

  1. 3.

    In your own words, how do you define drought?

  2. 4.

    What have been the major impacts/changes you have experienced due to drought over the last few years on your property?

    Optional probe—Can you describe how you think these impacts may have affected farming families and communities?

    Current use of climate tools

    How you use drought monitoring and warning information:

  3. 5.

    In your region (or locally) what are the most relevant signs or impacts you observe in the lead up to a drought impact?

  4. 6.

    What sources of information do you use to keep informed about drought?

  5. 7.

    What climate tools and products do you currently use in relation to drought? And why?

  6. 8.

    Do you use seasonal outlooks or long-range climate forecasts to aid in decision making on your property? (may need to clarify SCFs mean "Long-range climate forecasts for the months and season ahead" and not weekly weather forecasts)

    Optional probe—What are some of the elements you like / don't like about the SCFs?

    Optional probe—What other types of information do you use to support decision-making when you use climate outlooks?

    Hypothetical drought early warning

  7. 9.

    If you were in a good period, and according to the SCFs there was a 75%, or 3 in 4, chance of drought starting in your shire within the next 3 months, would it change your planning? And tell me a little bit about how much you’d trust it. And how trusting would you be?

    Optional probe—What elements would the system need to have to enable you to trust using it to make decisions?

    Wrap up

  8. 10.

    Is there anything else that you wanted to add or discuss?

  9. 11.

    Did you have any questions?

Thanks for taking the time and providing valuable input into our research.

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Bhardwaj, J., Kuleshov, Y., Watkins, A.B. et al. Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin. Nat Hazards 107, 97–122 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04575-2

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