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Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast

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Abstract

Hurricanes (tropical cyclones) and nor'easters (extratropical cyclones) are two major storm systems for flood risk over the Massachusetts coast. Severe coastal inundation usually happens when wind-induced waves and storm surges coincide with high tides. A Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) was established and placed into the 24/7 forecast operations starting in 2007. Using a well-validated “end to end” FVCOM inundation model of NECOFS, we examined the impact of climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) on the future extratropical storms-induced coastal inundation over the Massachusetts coast. The assessment was done by making the model experiments to project the storm-induced inundation over the coastal areas of Scituate and Boston Harbors with different SLR scenarios under a hundred-year storm condition. The results suggest that with sustained SLR, the northeastern US coast will be vulnerable more severely to wave runup-induced splashing/overtopping than wind-induced storm surges. This finding is consistent with the change in the intensity of storm-generated surface waves in the last decade. The model also suggests that the responses of surge and surface waves to SLR are fully nonlinear. The assessment of the impacts of SLR on the future storm-induced coastal inundation should be investigated with a model including wave-current interactions.

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Acknowledgments

This project was supported by the NOAA-funded IOOS NERACOOS program for NECOFS with subcontract numbers NA16NOS0120023 and NERACOOS A007 and the MIT Sea Grant College Program through grants 2012-R/RC-127. Dr. Yu Zhang was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant number 41706210 and the National Key Research and Development Programs of China under the Grant number 2019YFA0607000. Danya Xu was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China under grant number U1811464. We would like to thanks Drs. Robert Thompson, John Cannon, Tony Mignone, and Joseph Dellicarpini at NOAA Weather Forecast Office for their valuable suggestions in developing the inundation model.

Funding

This study was supported by the NOAA-funded IOOS NERACOOS program with subcontract numbers NA16NOS0120023 and NERACOOS A007 and the MIT Sea Grant College Program through grants 2012-R/RC-127.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA, 02744, USA

    Changsheng Chen, Zhaolin Lin, Qichun Xu, Jianhua Qi & Huichan Lin

  2. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA

    Robert C. Beardsley

  3. Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems (NERACOOS), Portsmouth, 03801, NH, UK

    Tom Shyka

  4. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, People’s Republic of China

    Yu Zhang

  5. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, 519082, People’s Republic of China

    Danya Xu

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  1. Changsheng Chen
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Correspondence to Changsheng Chen.

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Conflict of interest

Dr. Chen has received research Grants from the NOAA-funded IOSS NERACOOS Program with subcontract numbers NA16NOS0120023 and NERACOOS A007 and the MIT Sea Grant College Program through Grants 2012-R/RC-127. Dr. Yu Zhang was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant number 41706210 and the National Key Research and Development Programs of China under the Grant number 2019YFA0607000. Danya Xu was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant number U1811464. Dr. Chen declares that other authors have no conflict of interest.

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Chen, C., Lin, Z., Beardsley, R.C. et al. Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast. Nat Hazards 106, 375–399 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04467-x

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