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Analysis of flood damage and influencing factors in urban catchments: case studies in Manila, Philippines, and Jakarta, Indonesia

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Abstract

The sustainability and efficiency of flood risk management depends on the assessment of flood hazards and on the quantification of flood damage. Under the conditions of climate change and rapid urbanization, the evaluation of flood risk can lead to the success of adaptation strategies. The main objectives of this study are the estimation of future direct flood damage in two urban watersheds: The Pasig–Marikina–San Juan River in Metro Manila, Philippines, and the Ciliwung River in Jakarta, Indonesia, as well as the determination of the relation between factors that drive floods and flood damage. A spatial analysis approach based on the integration of several parameters, such as flood hazard, climate, and property value, was applied using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The flood depth-damage function generated from the field surveys was employed for the analysis to identify the spatial distribution of flood loss. The findings showed that, under future scenarios (target year: 2030), the total flood damage will increase by 212% and 80% in the target areas of Manila and Jakarta, respectively, compared to the current scenarios. This growth is due to the higher level of extreme rainfall events and to the degree of urbanization in the future. A comparative analysis of the two study areas highlighted the significant effects of the level of water depth and the inundated areas on flood damage, depending on the sites. This study is useful for local decision makers to implement suitable strategies for urban planning and flood control.

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The data collected and used in this study are strictly anonymous and are used for research purposes only.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the staff of Center of Environmental Research, Research and Community Services Institute, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia (PPLH –IPB), and local residents and local NGO in Metro Manila, Philippines, for their cooperation during the field survey.

Funding

This research was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science as Overseas researcher under Postdoctoral Fellowship of JSPS (Fellowship P16790). This work was also supported by the Water and Urban Initiative project of the United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS), Tokyo, Japan.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Desalination and Natural Water Valorisation, Water Research and Technologies Center CERTE-Technopark of Borj Cedria, BP 273, 8020, Soliman, Tunisia

    Mohamed Kefi

  2. School of Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, Pokhara University, Pokhara-30, Kaski, Nepal

    Binaya Kumar Mishra

  3. Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan

    Yoshifumi Masago

  4. Institute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan

    Kensuke Fukushi

  5. United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, 5-53-70 Jingumae, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, 150-8925, Japan

    Mohamed Kefi, Binaya Kumar Mishra, Yoshifumi Masago & Kensuke Fukushi

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  1. Mohamed Kefi
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Correspondence to Mohamed Kefi.

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Kefi, M., Mishra, B.K., Masago, Y. et al. Analysis of flood damage and influencing factors in urban catchments: case studies in Manila, Philippines, and Jakarta, Indonesia. Nat Hazards 104, 2461–2487 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04281-5

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