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Response of streamflow to climate variability in the source region of Jhelum River Basin in Kashmir valley, India

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Abstract

Successful management of the water resources directly depends on our understanding of the heterogeneity of changing climate and consequent response of annual and seasonal streamflows in different climatic regions. This study was undertaken to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of different climatic variables and their subsequent impacts on streamflows of river Jhelum and its tributaries during last more than three decades. Mann–Kendall trend statistic and Sen’s slope estimator test were used for assessing the trends and variability in climatic and streamflow variables. Data obtained from 11 hydrometric and 6 meteorological stations for different time intervals were used for analysis. The results pointed toward various significant trends in both hydrological and meteorological stations. Kashmir Himalayas witnessed rise in mean maximum temperature (+ 0.05 °C/year) and mean minimum temperature (+ 0.01 °C/year) with substantial reduction in precipitation (− 4.2 mm/year) from 1980 to 2015. Analysis of the streamflow trends revealed significant decreasing trends in all the hydrometric stations with the highest decrease in spring and summer seasons. Furthermore, the correlation analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between increase in temperature and streamflow, while strong positive correlation was realized with precipitation at both annual and seasonal scales.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the Indian Meteorological Department, Irrigation & Flood Control Department, Jammu & Kashmir Govt, United States Geological Survey (USGS) for supplying the crucial and valuable data for this research. The help provided by Dr. Rashid Mahmood (CAS, Beijing) greatly helped in improving the quality of this manuscript. Thanks are also to Dr. Musavir Ahmad, Sr. Assistant Professor (University of Kashmir, Srinagar) for English edits of the manuscript. The first author acknowledges UGC for financial support in the form of NET-JRF fellowship. Pervez Ahmed acknowledges the financial support by National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India), under the HiCOM initiative (NCAOR/2018/HiCOM/02). The authors also thank the Editor in Chief Thomas Glade and two anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions on the earlier version of the manuscript that greatly improved the content and structure of this manuscript.

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  1. Climate and Cryosphere Group, Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, India

    Mifta ul Shafiq, Zahoor ul Islam & Pervez Ahmed

  2. College of Agricultural Engineering, Sher-E-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Shalimar, Srinagar, India

    Ifra Ashraf

  3. School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

    A. P. Dimri

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The supplementary materials associated are table 1 (Annual and seasonal test statistics for various maximum and minimum temperatures in the upper (or head source of) Jhelum basin for the period of 1980–2015), table 2 (Annual and seasonal test statistics for precipitation over different meteorological stations in the upper (or head source of) Jhelum basin for the period of 1980–2015), table 3 (Annual and seasonal test statistics for streamflow of different tributaries of river Jhelum for the period of 1980–2015, and Figure 1 (Land use Land cover images of Kashmir valley for 1992 and 2018). (DOCX 880 kb)

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ul Shafiq, M., Ashraf, I., ul Islam, Z. et al. Response of streamflow to climate variability in the source region of Jhelum River Basin in Kashmir valley, India. Nat Hazards 104, 611–637 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04183-6

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