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Ground motion modelling in northwestern Himalaya using stochastic finite-fault method

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Abstract

This study presents estimates of bedrock level peak ground motion at 2346 sites on a regular grid of 0.2° × 0.2° in northwestern (NW) Himalaya from 543 simulated sources, using the stochastic finite-fault, dynamic corner frequency method, with particular emphasis on Kashmir Himalaya. The earthquake catalogue used for simulating synthetic seismograms is compiled by including both pre-instrumental and instrumental era earthquakes of magnitude Mw ≥ 5, dating back to 260 AD. Acceleration time series thus generated are then integrated to obtain velocity and displacement time series, which are all used to construct a suite of hazard maps of the region. Expected PGA values for the Kashmir Himalaya and Muzaffarabad are found to be ~ 0.3–0.5 g and for the epicentral region of the 1905 Kangra event, to be 0.35 g. These values are consistent with other reported results for these areas e.g., Khattri et al. (Tectonophysics 108:93–134, 1984) and Parvez et al. (J Seismol, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9682-0). The PGA values estimated in this study are in general found to be higher than those implied by the official seismic zoning map of India produced by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS in Indian Standard criteria for earthquake resistant design of structures part 1 general provisions and buildings (Fifth Revision), vol 1, no 5. Indian Standard, 2002). Even the acceleration-derived intensities for most regions are found to be higher compared with those observed, which apparently is due to the use of a longer duration catalogue (260 AD–2016) for simulation not covered by the observed intensity catalogue and higher magnitude ascribed to historical events. Major events in Kashmir Himalayas, such as those of 1555, 1885 and 2005, are simulated individually to allow comparison with available results. Simulated pseudo-acceleration and velocity response spectra for three sites near the 2005 Kashmir earthquake for which site conditions were available (Okawa in Strong earthquake motion recordings during the Pakistan, 2005/10/8, Earthquake, 2005. https://iisee.kenken.go.jp) are compared with observed spectra. This study provides a first-order ground motion database for safe design of buildings and other infrastructure in the NW Himalayan region.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Prof. Vinod Gaur for his valuable comments and suggestions. We also acknowledge the continuous support provided by the Head, CSIR-4PI. We would also like to thank Dr. Stephan Crane for help on EXSIM12 algorithm. Sincere thanks to Prof. Thomas Glade and Prof. V. Schenk Editors-in-Chief at the Natural Hazards for their support. Comments from two anonymous reviewers helped a lot in improving this manuscript to its current shape. We acknowledge the financial support from Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, via project number MoES/P.O.(Geosciences)16/2013 (GAP-1010). RM was also supported by Senior Research Fellowship from the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, India.

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  1. CSIR-Fourth Paradigm Institute, Wind Tunnel Road, Bangalore, 560037, India

    Ramees R. Mir & Imtiyaz A. Parvez

  2. Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, 201002, India

    Ramees R. Mir & Imtiyaz A. Parvez

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Mir, R.R., Parvez, I.A. Ground motion modelling in northwestern Himalaya using stochastic finite-fault method. Nat Hazards 103, 1989–2007 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04068-8

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