Abstract
Archaeological sites are increasingly threatened by primary impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise, flooding, and erosion. These important sites represent cultural heritage and contain unique past environmental, ecological, and climate information. Stewardship of these cultural resources is generally limited to mitigation and salvage of immediately threatened sites, with little forethought given to secondary impacts of climate change. Secondary impacts are defined in this paper as climate-driven resettlement and associated development and may result in destruction of archaeological sites via resettlement of affected populations. The United Nations predicts increases above existing rates of resettlement of climate-affected communities from areas in which in situ infrastructure adaptations are not economically feasible, legal, or physically possible. Resulting development will likely disturb archaeological sites in interior regions. These cultural, environmental, and climate archives may be lost if urgent, unplanned climate-driven resettlement overwhelms state and local protections. Thus, planning for climate-driven resettlement should include standard methods for assessing threats to archaeological sites. Using Southern Maine as a pilot study, we report a trial methodology for identifying towns likely to experience rapid increases in population and infrastructure development related to climate-driven resettlement. Socioeconomic and demographic data, land cover change analyses, and archaeological records are combined in this risk assessment framework. The products are town-level maps that identify archaeological sites threatened by secondary impacts of climate change (climate-driven migration). This tool enables prioritization of threatened sites prior to potential destruction by large-scale migration and associated economic development and makes timely development compliance with federal and state legislation more likely.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Maine towns are functional units of local government, resembling townships in most of the rest of the country. Towns in Southern Maine contain rural territory as well as population centers. Maine’s 433 towns and 36 plantations cover the entire land area of the state (U.S. Census Bureau 1994).
References
Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium Center for Climate and Health (2011) Climate Change in Kivalina, Alaska: Strategies for Community Health. ANTHC Center for Climate and Health. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/php/26952/Climate%20Change%20HIA%20Report_Kivalina.pdf. Accessed 10 Feb 2020
Anderson D, Bissett T, Yerka S, Wells J, Kansa E, Kansa S, Myers K, DeMuth R, White D (2017) Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: an example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology). PLoS ONE 12(11):1–25
Archeological and Historic Preservation Act (2018) of 1974 (2018), 16 U.S.C. §§ 469-469c
Audubon. Why Towns Should Prepare for the Climate Displaced. Audubon, 22 Oct. 2019, www.audubon.org/magazine/fall-2019/why-towns-should-prepare-climate-displaced
Boyle K, Bell K, Rubin J (2006) Economics of rural land-use change. Ashgate Press, Chippenham
Correa E, Ramírez F, Sanahuja H (2011) Populations at risk of disaster: a resettlement guide. World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Dailey A, Hastings S, Lloyd S, McWilliams N, Workman S (2012) Changing Maine: Maine’s changing population and housing 1990–2010. Muskie School of Public Service, University of Southern Maine. https://umaine.edu/mitchellcenter/wp-content/uploads/sites/293/2013/08/Census_Report_1012121.pdf. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
Dawson T, Hambly J, Kelley A, Lees W, Miller S (2020) A mirror to the future: coastal heritage management at a time of global change. In: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., Q:13 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas (in press)
DeConto RM, Pollard D (2016) Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531(7596):591–597
Dickson SM (2018) Coastal Erosion Assessment for Maine FIRMs and Map Modernization Plan. Maine Geological Survey. https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/explore/marine/firms/2003_coastal_erosion_assessment_for_firms.pdf. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
Eyer J, Dinterman R, Miller N, Rose A (2018) The effect of disasters on migration destinations: evidence from Hurricane Katrina. Econ Disasters Climate Change 2(1):91–106
Federal Emergency Management Agency (2014) Flood Risk Report: Cumberland County, Maine Flood Risk Project (Report No. 1). https://map1.msc.fema.gov/data/FRP/FRR_23005C_20140930.pdf?LOC=ef32857d352e428d9fb44b02ba3aaa19. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
Greater Portland Council of Governments (2013) Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment. Sustain Southern Maine. https://www.cascobayestuary.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/SSM-Sea-Level-Rise-Vulnerability-Assessment_FINAL.pdf. Accessed 10 Feb 2020
Hauer ME (2017) Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape. Nat Clim Change 7:321–325
Heilen, M., Altschul, J. H., & Lüth, F. (2018). Modelling resource values and climate change impacts to set preservation and research priorities. Conserv Manage Archaeol Sites, 20(4), 261–284.
Heslin A, Deckard ND, Oakes R and Montero-Colbert A (2019) Displacement and resettlement: understanding the role of climate change in contemporary migration. In: Loss and Damage from Climate Change, pp 237–258. Springer, Cham
Howard AJ (2013) Managing global heritage in the face of future climate change: the importance of understanding geological and geomorphological processes and hazards. Int J Heritage Stud 19(7):632–658. https://doi.org/10.1080/13527258.2012.681680
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Core Writing Team, R K Pachauri and L A Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf. Accessed 1 Feb 2020
Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (2018) 2018 Global Report on Internal Displacement, pp. 1–109
Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (2019) Disaster Displacement: A global review, 2008–2018, pp. 1–54
Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (2020) United States. https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/united-states. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
Irish JL, Sleath A, Cialone MA, Knutson TR, Jensen RE (2014) Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea level and climate conditions for 1900. Clim Change 122(4):635–649
Katz D (2017) The National Flood Insurance Program: Drowning in Debt and Due for Phase-out. The Heritage Foundation. https://www.heritage.org/government-regulation/report/the-national-flood-insurance-program-drowning-debt-and-due-phase-out. Accessed 8 Feb 2020
Kaufman B, Kelly CS, Vachula RS (2018) Paleoenvironment and archaeology provide cautionary tales for climate policymakers. Geogr Bull 59(1):5–24
Kellogg DC (1987) Statistical relevance and site locational data. Am Antiq 52(1):143–150
Knutson T, McBride JL, Chan J, Emanuel K, Holland G, Landsea C, Held I, Kossin JP, Srivastava AK, Sugi M (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat Geosci 3:157–163
Lentz EE, Thieler ER, Plant NG, Stippa SR, Horton RM, Gesch DB (2016) Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood. Nat Clim Chang 6:696–700
Lindegaard LS, Funder M (2017) How climate resettlement can work for communities: Climate change and Planned Relocation. Danish Institute for International Studies
Mackun P, Wilson S (2011) 2010 census briefs: population distribution and change: 2000 to 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau Report No. C2010BR-01). http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf. Accessed 8 Feb 2020
Maine Department of Environmental Protection (2014) Chapter 355: Coastal Sand Dune Rules. https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/rules/06/096/096c355.doc. Accessed 9 Feb 2020
Maine Department of Environmental Protection (2018) Site Location of Development: Title 38, Chapter 3, §§ 481-490. https://www.maine.gov/dep/land/sitelaw/index.html. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife (2018) Scarborough Marsh WMA. https://www.maine.gov/ifw/fish-wildlife/wildlife/lands/wildlife-management-areas/region-a/scarborough.html. Accessed 10 Feb 2020
Maine Historic Preservation Commission (2019) About Us. https://www.maine.gov/mhpc/about-us.Accessed 8 Feb 2020
Maine Revenue Services (2015) State Valuation History 2004–2015. http://www.maine.gov/revenue/propertytax/. Accessed 14 March 2016
Martín C (2019) Who Are America’s “Climate Migrants,” and Where Will They Go? https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/who-are-americas-climate-migrants-and-where-will-they-go. Accessed 8 Feb 2020
Mazur C, Wilson E (2011) 2010 Census Briefs: Housing Characteristics: 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau Report No. C2010BR-07). https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-07.pdf. Accessed 10 Feb 2020
Moore FC, Obradovich N (2020) Using remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds. Nat Commun 11(1):1–8
Moser S (2005) Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: an exploration of human-dimension uncertainties. Glob Env Chang 15:353–369
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2017) Major Hurricane Harvey—August 25–29, 2017. https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey. Accessed 10 Feb 2020
NOAA Office for Coastal Management (2020) Digital Coast Sea Level Rise Viewer. https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr.html. Accessed 8 Feb 2020
Reeder-Myers LA (2015) Cultural heritage at risk in the twenty-first century: a vulnerability assessment of coastal archaeological sites in the United States. J Island Coast Archaeol 10:436–445. https://doi.org/10.1080/15564894.2015.1008074
Robinson C, Dilkina B, Moreno-Cruz J (2020) Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise. PLoS ONE 15(1):e0227436
Rockman M, Morgan M, Ziaja S, Hambrecht G, Meadow A (2016) Cultural resources climate change strategy. Washington, DC: Cultural Resources, Partnerships, and Science and Climate Change Response Program, National Park Service
Sandweiss DH, Kelley AR (2012) Archaeological contributions to climate change research: the archaeological record as a paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental archive. Annu Rev Anthropol 41:371–391
Sanger D, Kellogg DC (1989) Prehistoric archaeology and evidence of coastal subsidence on the coast of Maine. In: Anderson WA, Borns HW Jr (eds) Neotectonics of Maine. Maine Geological Survey, Augusta, pp 107–126
Savage L, Lapping M (2003) In: Lindstrom M, Bartling H (eds) Suburban sprawl: culture, theory and politics, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Lanham, pp 5–17
Slovinsky P (2005) Coastal processes and beach erosion. Maine Geological Survey. https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/explore/marine/virtual/saco/virtual_saco_bay.pdf. Accessed 7 Feb 2020
Song X, Sexton J, Huang C, Channan S, Townshend J (2016) Characterizing the magnitude, timing and duration of urban growth from time series of Landsat-based estimates of impervious cover. Remote Sens Environ 175:1–13
Tebaldi C, Strauss B, Zervas C (2012) Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environ Res Lett 7:014032
The United Nations Migration Agency (2017) Migration, Climate Change, and the Environment: A Complex Nexus. International Organization for Migration. https://www.iom.int/complex-nexus. Accessed 10 Feb 2020
Town of Portland (2013) Chapter 14 Land Use. https://www.portlandmaine.gov/DocumentCenter/View/3411/Land-Use-Code-Zoning?bidId=. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
Town of Saco (2018) Chapter 230: zoning. http://ecode360.com/32483142. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
Town of Scarborough (2007) Chapter 405A Town of Scarborough Floodplain Management Ordinance. http://www.scarboroughmaine.org/town-government/town-ordinances. Accessed 7 Feb 2020
Town of Scarborough (2017) Chapter 406 Town of Scarborough Subdivision Ordinance. http://www.scarboroughmaine.org/town-government/town-ordinances. Accessed 7 Feb 2020
Town of Scarborough (2018) Chapter 405 Town of Scarborough Zoning Ordinance. http://www.scarboroughmaine.org/town-government/town-ordinances. Accessed 7 Feb 2020
Town of South Portland (2006) Chapter 24: Subdivisions. http://www.southportland.org/our-city/code-ordinance/. Accessed 7 Feb 2020
Town of South Portland (2017) Chapter 27: Zoning. http://www.southportland.org/our-city/code-ordinance/. Accessed 7 Feb 2020
Town of Westbrook (2018) Land Use Ordinances of the City of Westbrook. https://www.westbrookmaine.com/DocumentCenter/View/1561/Appendix-A-Land-Use-Ordinance–20181205. Accessed 1 Sept 2018
Town of Windham (2009) Land Use Ordinance: Chapter 140 From the Code of the Town of Windham. http://www.windhammaine.us/DocumentCenter/View/533. Accessed February 7 2020
U.S. Census Bureau (1994) Chapter 8: County Subdivisions. https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/reference/GARM/Ch8GARM.pdf. Accessed 10 Feb 2020
U.S. Census Bureau (2012) Growth in urban population outpaces rest of nation, census bureau reports. US Department of Commerce, Washington, DC
Union of Concerned Scientists (2017) Massachusetts Faces Chronic Inundation. http://www.ucsusa.org/RisingSeasHitHome. Accessed 10 February 2020
U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (2017) Relocating Kivalina. https://toolkit.climate.gov/case-studies/relocating-kivalina. Accessed 8 Feb 2020
U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey, 2018 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Table DP05; generated by Frankie St. Amand; using data.census.gov. Accessed 8 February 2020
U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Northern Research Station Unit 08 (2009) County Subdivision [Shapefile]. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/data/urban
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (2014) Climate Change Adaptation Plan. https://www.hud.gov/sites/documents/HUD2014CCADAPTPLAN.PDF. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (2016) National Disaster Resilience Competition Grantee Profiles. https://www.hud.gov/sites/documents/NDRCGRANTPROF.PDF. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
White E (2006) Forests on the edge: a case study of south-central and southwest Maine watersheds (USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station). https://www.fs.fed.us/openspace/fote/maine-casestudy-ew-062506.pdf. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
Xian GZ, Homer CG, Dewitz J, Fry J, Hossain N, Wickham J (2011) The change of impervious surface area between 2001 and 2006 in the conterminous United States. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 77(8):758–762
Acknowledgements
Support for this research was provided by a Climate Change Institute Graduate Research Assistantship to Frankie St. Amand. Data and input from Arthur Spiess enabled, guided and greatly enhanced this pilot study. Nathan Hamilton provided archaeological survey maps from the University of Southern Maine, which were used to confirm MHPC site location records.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
St. Amand, F., Sandweiss, D.H. & Kelley, A.R. Climate-driven migration: prioritizing cultural resources threatened by secondary impacts of climate change. Nat Hazards 103, 1761–1781 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04053-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04053-1