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Projecting heat waves temporally and spatially for local adaptations in a changing climate: Washington D.C. as a case study

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Abstract

Heat waves are posing rising threats to the environment and society due to climate change, urban sprawl, and aging population. To help identify and reduce the vulnerability of cities to extreme heat, this study projects the spatial and temporal variation of heat waves in the twenty-first century and evaluates the performance and cost-effectiveness of heat wave mitigation strategies under future climate conditions. The heat-related condition of Washington D.C. is investigated for such purpose using the high-resolution weather research and forecasting model and the representative concentration pathway 8.5 climate scenario. Results indicate that by the end of the century, the amplitude of heat waves may grow by 5.7 °C, and frequency and duration may increase by more than twofold. The urban heat island effect plays an important role in heat wave growth even though global climate change dominates the variation. Deploying cool roofs and green roofs in Washington D.C. can effectively reduce the amplitude and duration of heat waves, whereas using reflective pavements has relatively little impact. From an economic perspective, cool roofs are more cost-efficient than green roofs and reflective pavements.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA

    Yating Zhang

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Director of the Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA

    Bilal M. Ayyub

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  1. Yating Zhang
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  2. Bilal M. Ayyub
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Correspondence to Yating Zhang.

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Zhang, Y., Ayyub, B.M. Projecting heat waves temporally and spatially for local adaptations in a changing climate: Washington D.C. as a case study. Nat Hazards 103, 731–750 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04008-6

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