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Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy

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Abstract

In this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting model to project 2050 urban and rural temperature. We applied a time-stratified analysis to compare it with mortality between 2001 and 2014 and between 2011 and 2014, to estimate the elevated risk of a 2050 heat event. We included change in daytime versus nighttime and urban versus rural temperatures as factors to project mortality, to evaluate the potential influence of climate change on mortality risk. Increases of 2.9 °C and 2.6 °C in maximum and minimum air temperature are projected in a 2050 heat event, with a day and a night that will have respective temperatures 9.8 °C and 4.9 °C higher than 2001–2014. Significantly higher mortality risk is forecasted in 2050 compared to 2001–2014 (IRR 1.721 [1.650, 1.796]) and 2011–2014 (IRR 1.622 [1.547, 1.701]) without consideration of temperature change. After consideration of changing temperature, change in maximum temperature in rural areas will induce the highest mortality risk during 2050, possibly due to rapid urbanization across the city, and with the second highest mortality risk induced by the change in minimum temperature in urbanized areas, possibly because local people in the city have been adapted to the maximum level of urban thermal stress during a summer day. Improvements to heat warning systems and sustainable planning protocols are urgently needed for climate change mitigation.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the support in part by the Seed Fund for Basic Research, The University of Hong Kong (201903159006); a grant from the Collaborative Research Fund from the Research Grants Council (project ID: C7064-18GF); and a grant from the Research Institute for Sustainable Urban Development (1-BBWD).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong

    Hung Chak Ho

  2. College of Engineering, Shantou University, Shantou, China

    Ka Ming Wai

  3. Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong

    Minhao He

  4. Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei City, Taiwan

    Ta-Chien Chan

  5. Department of Geography, State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, USA

    Chengbin Deng

  6. Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong

    Man Sing Wong

  7. Research Institute for Sustainable Urban Development, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong

    Man Sing Wong

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  1. Hung Chak Ho
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Correspondence to Hung Chak Ho or Man Sing Wong.

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Ho, H.C., Wai, K.M., He, M. et al. Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy. Nat Hazards 103, 623–637 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04003-x

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