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Energy transition, CO2 mitigation, and air pollutant emission reduction: scenario analysis from IPAC model

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Abstract

In China, Energy transition was proposed in the “12th Five-Year Plan” and gained resilient support by “Energy Revolution” announced by President Xi Jinping in 2014. In Paris Agreement, there are targets set up for 2100 to be well below 2 °C, with ambitious target on 1.5 °C. China signed the agreement and will support the global target. In the meantime, large-scale actions were initiated in 2013 by the national action plan on air pollution control for the period from 2013 to 2017. None of these strategies has clear long-term target. In our studies, energy transition will be decided by the long-term target of CO2 emission reduction, air pollutant reduction, and energy security. This paper will present the analysis from IPAC model, by setting up reduction target for CO2 emission under the global 2 °C and 1.5 °C target. Energy transition, CO2 emission, and air pollutant reduction will be discussed based on these targets. For air pollutants, SO2, NOx, PM2.5, black carbon, and mercury will be included. From the results, there will be a significant energy transition by large-scale use of renewable energy, nuclear and the share of coal will be reduced to less than 20% in 2050 from 66% in 2015. Energy transition will also contribute to a drastic reduction in air pollutants.

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Funding

Funding was provided by National Key Basic R&D Plan (CN) (Grant No. 2014CB441301), National Key R&D Plan (Grant No. 2016YFC0207503).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Energy Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing, China

    Kejun Jiang

  2. Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, College of Environmental and Energy Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China

    Sha Chen

  3. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China

    Chenmin He

  4. Renm Consulting, Beijing, China

    Jia Liu, Sun Kuo & Li Hong

  5. Energy Research Institute, Beijing, China

    Songli Zhu

  6. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Xiang Pianpian

Authors
  1. Kejun Jiang
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  2. Sha Chen
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  3. Chenmin He
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  4. Jia Liu
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  5. Sun Kuo
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  6. Li Hong
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  7. Songli Zhu
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  8. Xiang Pianpian
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Correspondence to Sha Chen.

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Jiang, K., Chen, S., He, C. et al. Energy transition, CO2 mitigation, and air pollutant emission reduction: scenario analysis from IPAC model. Nat Hazards 99, 1277–1293 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03796-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03796-w

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