Assessing flood disaster impacts in agriculture under climate change in the river basins of Southeast Asia

Abstract

This study focused on flood damage assessment for future floods under the impact of climate change. Four river basins of Southeast Asia were selected for the study. They included the Pampanga River Basin (PRB) in the Philippines, the Solo River Basin (SRB) in Indonesia, the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Cambodia and Vietnam, and the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand. Flood damage to rice crops was assessed by flood damage functions considering flood depth and duration and the growth stage of rice plants. Flood characteristics such as flood depth, duration, and distribution were computed using the rainfall–runoff–inundation model to assess flood hazards under the present and future climatic conditions produced by MRI-AGCM3.2S. The damage assessment methodology for rice crops employed in this study was verified using data on past flood events. Then, flood damage assessment was conducted for both the present climate (1979–2003) and future climate (2075–2099) conditions, using MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation datasets. Flood damage was assessed for worst cases chosen from each climate period and for floods of 50- and 100-year return periods with different rainfall patterns chosen from each climate scenario. The results of flood hazard and damage assessment show that the flood inundation area for a 100-year flood may increase in the future by 20% in PRB; by 66% in SRB; by 27% in LMRB; and by 27% in CPRB. The flood damage area of paddy fields for a 100-year flood may also increase in the future by 16% in PRB; by 55% in SRB; by 23% in LMRB; and by 13% in CPRB.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

[Sources: NWRB and JICA (2011) for the Pampanga River Basin; a land cover map prepared by Global Land Cover by National Mapping Organizations (Tateishi et al. 2011) for the other basins]

Fig. 4

[Sources: Cropping calendar data for the Pampanga River Basin prepared by the National Irrigation Administration-Upper Pampanga River Integrated Irrigation System, DSRI (2001), FAO (2017), Varinruk (2017)]

Fig. 5

[Sources: BAS (2013), Arraudeau and Vergara (1988)]

Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

(adopted from Shrestha et al. 2016a, b)

Fig. 10

[Sources of recorded flood mark data: PRFFWC (2011), Nagumo and Sawano (2016)]

Fig. 11

[Sources of the reported data: BPAO (2011), PPAO (2011)]

Fig. 12
Fig. 13

[Source of the reported data: DFCP (2010)]

Fig. 14

[Source of observed flood inundation extent area: MRC (2011)]

Fig. 15

[Sources of the reported data: average values reported in MRC (2015) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2012)]

Fig. 16

[Source of observed flood inundation extent area: published at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO), http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/]

Fig. 17

[Source of reported data: Cham and Mitani (2015)]

Fig. 18
Fig. 19
Fig. 20
Fig. 21
Fig. 22
Fig. 23
Fig. 24
Fig. 25
Fig. 26

References

  1. Alfieri L, Feyen L, Dottori F, Bianchi A (2015) Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios. Glob Environ Change 35:199–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Aon Benfield (2012) 2011 Thailand floods event recap report. Impact Forecasting LLC, Aon Benfield, Chicago. http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/Documents/20120314_impact_forecasting_thailand_flood_event_recap.pdf. Accessed on 11 Dec 2017

  3. Arraudeau MA, Vergara B (1988) A farmer’s primer on growing upland rice. International Rice Research Institute and French Institute for Tropical Food Crops Research, Manila. http://books.irri.org/9711041707_content.pdf. Accessed on 16 Aug 2016

  4. Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2012) Flood damage emergency reconstruction: Preliminary damage and loss assessment. Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/linked-documents/46009-001-cam-oth-01.pdf. Accessed on 11 Dec 2017

  5. Beven KJ, Lamb R, Quinn PF, Romanowicz R, Freer J (1995) TOPMODEL. In: Singh VP (ed) Computer models of watershed hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Colorado, pp 627–668

    Google Scholar 

  6. Bouwer LM, Bubeck P, Aerts JCJH (2010) Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area. Glob Environ Change 20:463–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Brémond P, Grelot F, Agenais A-L (2013) Review article: economic evaluation of flood damage to agriculture—review and analysis of existing methods. Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 13:2493–2512. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2493-2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Bulacan Provincial Agricultural Office (BPAO) (2011) Final validation report for cereals. Bulacan Provincial Agricultural Office, Bulacan

    Google Scholar 

  9. Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) (2013) Manual on damage assessment and reporting system. Publication of Department of Agriculture, Quezon City

  10. Chaikiattiyos S, Yoovatana MC (2015) Promotion of climate resilience in rice and maize, Thailand National Study. The ASEAN Technical Working Group on Agricultural Research and Development (ATWGARD) and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH through the ASEAN-German Programme on Response to Climate Change (GAP-CC). http://www.gapcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Thailand-FULL.pdf. Accessed on 1 April 2017

  11. Cham TC, Mitani Y (2015) Flood control and loss estimation for paddy field at midstream of Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand. IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/26/1/012022

    Google Scholar 

  12. Department of Settlement and Regional Infrastructure (DSRI) (2001) Comprehensive development and management plan study for Bengawan Solo River Basin under Lower Solo River Improvement Project. Project Report of Bengawan Solo River Basin Development Project, Department of Settlement and Regional Infrastructure, Directorate General of Water Resources

  13. Detrembleur S, Stilmant F, Dewals B, Erpicum S, Archambeau P, Pirotton M (2015) Impacts of climate change on future flood damage on the river Meuse, with a distributed uncertainty analysis. Nat Hazards 77:1533–1549. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1661-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Directorate of Food Crop Protection (DFCP) (2010) Indonesia broad flood damage in rice plant: Solo River Basin. Flood Damage Data Published by the Directorate of Food Crop Protection, Indonesia

  15. Dottori F, Figueiredo R, Martina MLV, Molinari D, Scorzini AR (2016) INSYDE: a synthetic, probabilistic flood damage model based on explicit cost analysis. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 16:2577–2591. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Dutta D, Herath S (2001) GIS based flood loss estimation modeling in Japan. In: Proceedings of the US-Japan 1st workshop on comparative study on urban disaster management, Port Island, Kobe

  17. Feyen L, Dankers R, Bódis K, Salamon P, Barredo J (2012) Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates. Clim Change 112:47–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2017) Global information and early warning system-country briefs. http://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/. Accessed on 1 Nov 2017

  19. Frenken K (2012) Irrigation in Southern and Eastern Asia in figures AQUASTAT Survey—2011. FAO Water Reports. http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/i2809e/i2809e.pdf. Accessed on 6 Feb 2018

  20. GEF, UNEP, DHI IWA (2016) Chao Phraya River Basin Factsheet. http://fdmt.iwlearn.org/docs/information-sheets?id=62. Accessed on 6 Feb 2018

  21. Genovese E (2006) A methodological approach to land use-based flood damage assessment in urban areas: Prague case study. Report of European Commission, Directorate-General Joint Research Centre (EUR 22497 EN), Preventionweb. http://www.preventionweb.net/files/2678_EUR22497EN.pdf. Accessed on 1 May 2017

  22. Glas H, Deruyter G, Maeyer PD, Mandal A, James-Williamson S (2016) Analysing sensitivity of a flood risk assessment model towards its input data. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 16:2529–2542. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2529-2016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Global Rice Science Partnership (GRiSP) (2013) Rice almanac, 4th edn. International Rice Research Institute, Los Baños, p 283

    Google Scholar 

  24. Hattermann FF, Huang S, Burghoff O, Willems W, Österle H, Büchner M, Kundzewicz Z (2014) Modelling flood damage under climate change conditions—a case study in Germany. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:3151–3169. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3151-2014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Hidayat F, Sungguh HM, Harianto (2008) Impact of climate change on floods in Bengawan Solo and Brantas River Basins, Indonesia. In: Proceeding of the 11th International Riversymposium September 1–4, 2008 Brisbane, Australia

  26. Inomata H, Takeuchi K, Fukami K (2011) Development of statistical bias correction method for daily precipitation data of GCM20. J Jpn Soc Civ Eng Ser B1 (Hydraul Eng) 67:I247–I252. https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejhe.67.I_247

    Google Scholar 

  27. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2013) Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  28. Iwami Y, Hasegawa A, Miyamoto M, Kudo S, Yusuke Y, Ushiyama T, Koike T (2017) Comparative study on climate change impact on precipitation and floods in Asian river basins. Hydrol Res Lett 11(1):24–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Jular P (2017) The 2011 Thailand floods in the lower Chao Phraya River basin in Bangkok Metropolis. http://www.gwp.org/globalassets/global/toolbox/case-studies/asia-and-caucasus/case-study_the-2011-floods-in-chao-phraya-river-basin-488.pdf. Accessed on 7 Feb 2018

  30. Kitoh A, Endo H (2016) Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model. Weather Clim Extremes 11:41–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.09.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Kudo S, Sayama T, Hasegawa A, Iwami Y (2016) Analysis of flood risk change in future climate in terms of discharge and inundation in the Solo River Basin. In: Proceedings of ICWRER 2016

  32. Kumar D, Shivay YS (2008) Definitional glossary of agricultural terms, vol I. I.K. International Publishing House, New Delhi

    Google Scholar 

  33. Lee D, Oh B, Kim H, Lee S, Chung G (2013) Comparison of the hydro-climatological characteristics for the extra-ordinary flood induced by tropical cyclone in the selected river basins. Trop Cyclone Res Rev 2(1):45–54

    Google Scholar 

  34. Loo YY, Billa L, Singh A (2015) Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. Geosci Front 6:817–823

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Mekong River Commission (MRC) (2011) Flood situation report 2011. MRC Technical Paper. 36, pp 1–47. http://www.mrcmekong.org/assets/Publications/technical/Tech-No36-Flood-Situation-Report2011.pdf. Accessed on 11 Sept 2018

  36. Mekong River Commission (MRC) (2015) Annual Mekong Flood Report 2011, Flood Management and Mitigation Programme, Mekong River Commission. http://www.mrcmekong.org/assets/Publications/basin-reports/Annual-Mekong-Flood-Report-2011.pdf. Accessed on 11 Dec 2017

  37. Merz B, Kreibich H, Schwarze R, Thieken A (2010) Review article “Assessment of economic flood damage”. Na Hazard Earth Syst Sci 10:1697–1724. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Messner F, Penning-Rowsell E, Green C, Meyer V, Tunstall S, van der Veen A (2007) Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods. FLOODsite Consortium, HR Wallingford

    Google Scholar 

  39. Ministry of Public Works (MPW) of Indonesia (2013) Water resources management of Bengawan Solo River basin. In: 5th General Meeting of Network of Asian River Basin Organizations. http://www.narbo.jp/data/01_events/materials(5thgm)/300_Workshop_Launch/340_WS-4_Improving_Water_Security/312%20Presentation%20Data/312-2_Indonesia/WRM_of_Bengawan_Solo_River.pdf. Accessed on 22 Sept 2017

  40. Mizuta R, Yoshimura H, Murakami H, Matsueda M, Endo H, Ose T, Kamiguchi K, Hosaka M, Sugi M, Yukimoto S, Kusunoki S, Kitoh A (2012) Climate simulations using MRI-AGCM with 20-km grid. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 90A:233–258. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-A12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Nagumo N, Sawano H (2016) Land classification and flood characteristics of the Pampanga River Basin, Central Luzon, Philippines. J Geogr (Chigaku Zasshi) 125:699–716

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. National Water Resources Board (NWRB), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (2011) The study on integrated water resources management for poverty alleviation and economic development in the Pampanga river basin. IWRM Report, NWRB and JICA. http://www.nwrb.gov.ph/images/Publications/IWRM_Pampanga_River_Basin.pdf. Accessed on 1 Feb 2018

  43. Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) (2014) Agricultural statistics of Thailand 2013. Publication of the Office of Agricultural Economics, Bangkok

    Google Scholar 

  44. Office of Civil Defense (OCD) (2016) Effects of weather disturbances in Region III-Flood damage data. OCD Region-III

  45. Okada T, MCAneney KJ, Chen K (2011) Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan—a data integration approach. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:3373–3382. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3373-2011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Okazumi T, Miyamoto M, Shrestha BB, Gusyev M (2014) Uncertainty estimation during the process of flood risk assessment in developing countries—case study in the Pampanga river basin. J Disaster Res 9(1):69–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Pampanga Provincial Agricultural Office (PPAO) (2011) Damage Report of Typhoon Pedring. Pampanga Provincial Agricultural Office, Pampanga

    Google Scholar 

  48. Pampanga River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (PRFFWC) (2011) Event: Typhoons “Pedring” (Nesat) and “Quiel” (Nalgae), September 26 to October 04, 2011. Post-flood Report 2011–2, PRFFWC, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). http://prffwc.synthasite.com/resources/PRB%20flood-Sept2011-Pedring-Quiel.pdf. Accessed on 18 Sept 2018

  49. Panuji DR, Mizuno K, Trisasongko BH (2013) The Dynamics of rice production in Indonesia 1961–2009. J Saudi Soc Agric Sci 12:27–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2012.05.002

    Google Scholar 

  50. Pech R (2013) Overview: Rice Production in Cambodia. http://www.agribenchmark.org/fileadmin/Dateiablage/B-Cash-Crop/Projects/Rice-Initiative/Presentations-WS-130319/country_presentation_KH_130319.pdf. Accessed on 22 April 2017

  51. Perera EDP, Hiroe A, Shrestha D, Fukami K, Basnyat DB, Gautam A, Hasegawa A, Uenoyama T, Tanaka S (2015) Community-based flood damage assessment approach for lower West Rapti River basin in Nepal under the impact of climate change. Nat Hazards 75(1):669–699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1339-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Perera EDP, Sayama T, Magome J, Hasegawa A, Iwami Y (2017) RCP8.5-based future flood hazard analysis for the lower Mekong river basin. Hydrology 4(4):55. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology4040055

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Pistrika A (2010) Flood damage estimation based on flood simulation scenarios and a GIS platform. Eur Water 30:3–11

    Google Scholar 

  54. Ranger N, Hallegatte S, Bhattacharya S, Bachu M, Priya S, Dhore K, Rafique F, Mathur P, Naville N, Henriet F, Herweijer C, Pohit S, Corfee-Morlot J (2011) An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai. Clim Change 104:139–167. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9979-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Rojas R, Feyen L, Watkiss P (2013) Climate change and river floods in the European Union: socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation. Glob Environ Change 23:1737–1751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Sayama T, Ozawa G, Kawakami T, Nabesaka S, Fukami K (2012) Rainfall-runoff-inundation analysis of Pakistan flood 2010 at the Kabul river basin. Hydrol Sci J 57:298–312. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.644245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Sayama T, Tatabe Y, Iwami Y, Tanaka S (2015) Hydrologic sensitivity of flood runoff and inundation: 2011 Thailand floods in the Chao Phraya River basin. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15:1617–1630. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1617-2015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Scharffenberg W (2016) Hydrological modeling system HEC-HMS. User’s Manual. Publication of US Army Corps of Engineers

  59. Shrestha S, Lohpaisankrit W (2016) Flood hazard assessment under climate change scenarios in the Yang River basin, Thailand. Int J Sustain Built Environ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsbe.2016.09.006

    Google Scholar 

  60. Shrestha BB, Okazumi T, Miyamoto M, Nabesaka S, Tanaka S, Sugiura A (2014a) Fundamental analysis for flood risk management in the selected river basins of Southeast Asia. J Disaster Res 9(5):858–869

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Shrestha BB, Okazumi T, Miyamoto M, Sawano H (2014b) Development of flood risk assessment method for data-poor river basins: a case study in the Pampanga River basin, Philippines. In: Proceeding of 6th international conference on flood management (ICFM6), September 2014. http://eventos.abrh.org.br/icfm6/proceedings/papers/PAP014383.pdf. Accessed on 5 Dec 2017

  62. Shrestha BB, Okazumi T, Miyamoto M, Sawano H (2016a) Flood damage assessment in the Pampanga River basin of the Philippines. J Flood Risk Manag 9(4):355–369. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  63. Shrestha BB, Sawano H, Ohara M, Nagumo N (2016b) Improvement of flood disaster damage assessment using highly accurate IfSAR DEM. J Disaster Res 11(6):1137–1149. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2016.p1137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  64. Sugawara M (1979) Automatic calibration of the tank model. Hydrol Sci Bull Hydrol 24:375–388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  65. Sugiura T, Fukami K, Fujiwara N, Hamaguchi K, Nakamura S, Hironaka S, Nakamura K, Wada T, Ichikawa M, Shimizu T, Inomata H, Ito K (2009) Development of integrated flood analysis system (IFAS) and its application. In: Proceedings of the 7th ISE & 8th HIC, Chile

  66. Takeuchi K, Hapuarachchi P, Zhou M, Ishidaira H, Magome J (2008) A BTOP model to extend TOPMODEL for distributed hydrological simulation of large basins. Hydrol Process 22:3236–3251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  67. Tateishi R, Bayaer U, Al-Bilbisi H, Aboel Ghar M, Tsend-Ayush J, Kobayashi T, Kasimuf A, Thanh Hoan N, Shalaby A, Alsaaideh B, Enkhzaya T, Gegentana Sato HP (2011) Production of global land cover data—GLCNMO. Int J Digit Earth 4:22–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Thom W (2014) Indonesia Grain and Feed Annual: Indonesia grain and feed annual report 2014. GAIN Report Number ID1407

  69. UNISDR (2005) Hyogo framework for action 2005–2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. Final Report of World Conference on Disaster Reduction. https://www.unisdr.org/2005/wcdr/intergover/official-doc/L-docs/Hyogo-framework-for-action-english.pdf. Accessed on 29 Nov 2017

  70. Ushiyama T, Hasegawa A, Miyamoto M, Iwami Y (2016) Dynamic downscaling and bias correction of rainfall in the Pampanga River Basin, Philippines, for investigating flood risk changes due to global warming. Hydrol Res Lett 10(3):106–112. https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.10.106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. Varinruk B (2017) Thailand rice production and rice R&D on climate change. Workshop on Strengthening APEC Cooperation on Food Security and Climate Change. http://mddb.apec.org/Documents/2017/PPFS/WKSP1/17_ppfs_wksp1_008.pdf. Accessed on 1 Nov 2017

  72. World Bank (2012) Thai Flood 2011: Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and Reconstruction Planning. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/262141468118140200/pdf/698220WP0v20P10se0Only060Box370022B.pdf. Accessed on 1 June 2017

  73. Zhang J, Hori T, Tatano H, Okada N, Zhang C, Matsumoto T (2003) GIS and flood inundation model-based flood risk assessment in urbanized floodplain. In: GIS and RS in hydrology, water resources and environment, vol 1, pp 92–99

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was part of the SOUSEI program for risk information on climate change, which was funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT). The authors would like to thank the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority of the Philippines for providing IfSAR data for PRB and also thank all related counterpart institutes in each country for their support. The authors also would like to thank all colleagues at ICHARM for their support.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Badri Bhakta Shrestha.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Shrestha, B.B., Perera, E.D.P., Kudo, S. et al. Assessing flood disaster impacts in agriculture under climate change in the river basins of Southeast Asia. Nat Hazards 97, 157–192 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03632-1

Download citation

Keywords

  • Rainfall runoff inundation model
  • Flood hazard
  • Damage assessment
  • Climate change
  • Southeast Asia