Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A continuous simulation approach for the estimation of extreme flood inundation in coastal river reaches affected by meso- and macrotides

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Considering the joint probability of occurrence of high sea levels and river discharges, as well as the interactions between these sources of flooding, is of major importance to produce realistic inundation maps in river reaches affected by the sea level. In this paper, we propose a continuous simulation method for the estimation of extreme inundation in coastal river reaches. The methodology combines the generation of synthetic long-term daily time series of river discharge and sea level, the downscaling of daily values to a time resolution of a few minutes, the computation of inundation levels with an unsteady high-resolution two-dimensional model and the use of interpolation techniques to reconstruct long-term time series of water surface from a limited number of characteristic cases. The method is especially suitable for small catchments with times of concentration of a few hours, since it considers the intradiurnal variation of river discharge and sea level. The methodology was applied to the coastal town of Betanzos (NW of Spain), located at a river confluence strongly affected by the sea level. Depending on the return period and on the control point considered, the results obtained with the proposed methodology show differences up to 50 cm when compared with the standard methodology used in this region for the elaboration of flood hazard maps in accordance with the requirements of the European Directives. These results indicate the need for adaption of the standard methodology in order to produce more realistic results and a more efficient evaluation of flood hazard mitigation measures.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Acreman MC (1994) Assessing the joint probability of fluvial and tidal floods in the river-roding. J Inst Water Environ Manag 8:490–496. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.1994.tb01140.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Archetti R, Bolognesi A, Casadio A, Maglionico M (2011) Development of flood probability charts for urban drainage network in coastal areas through a simplified joint assessment approach. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:3115–3122. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3115-2011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bermúdez A, Dervieux A, Desideri JA, Vázquez-Cendón ME (1998) Upwind schemes for the two-dimensional shallow water equations with variable depth using unstructured meshes. Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 155(1–2):49–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bladé E, Cea L, Corestein G, Escolano E, Puertas J, Vázquez-Cendón ME, Dolz J, Coll A (2014a) Iber: herramienta de simulación numérica del flujo en ríos. Revista Internacional de Métodos Numéricos para Cálculo y Diseño en Ingeniería 30(1):1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rimni.2012.07.004 (in Spanish)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bladé E, Cea L, Corestein G (2014b) Modelización numérica de inundaciones fluviales. Ingeniería del Agua 18(1):68–79. https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.2014.3144 (in Spanish)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bodoque JM, Amérigo M, Díez-Herrero A, García J-A, Cortés B, Ballesteros-Cánovas JA, Olcina J (2016) Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management. J Hydrol 541:665–676. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cai Y, Gouldby BP, Dunning P, Hawkes PJ (2007) A simulation method for flood risk variables. In: 2nd IMA international conference flood risk assessment. institute of mathematics and its applications, Southend, UK, pp 85–95

  • Cai Y, Gouldby B, Hawkes P, Dunning P (2008) Statistical simulation of flood variables: incorporating short-term sequencing. J Flood Risk Manag 1(1):3–12. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2008.00002.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camus P, Mendez FJ, Medina R (2011a) A hybrid efficient method to downscale wave climate to coastal areas. Coast Eng 58(9):851–862. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2011.05.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camus P, Mendez FJ, Medina R, Cofiño AS (2011b) Analysis of clustering and selection algorithms for the study of multivariate wave climate. Coast Eng 58:453–462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2011.02.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cea L, Blade E (2015) A simple and efficient unstructured finite volume scheme for solving the shallow water equations in overland flow applications. Water Resour Res 51(7):5464–5486. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cea L, French JR (2012) Bathymetric error estimation for the calibration and validation of estuarine hydrodynamic models. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 100:124–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2012.01.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dastorani MT, Afkhami H, Sharifidarani H, Dastorani M (2010) Application of ANN and ANFIS models on dryland precipitation prediction (case study: Yazd in Central Iran). J Appl Sci 10:2387–2394. https://doi.org/10.3923/jas.2010.2387.2394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davies JL (1964) A morphogenic approach to world shorelines. Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie 8:127–142

    Google Scholar 

  • Duarte P, Alvarez-Salgado XA, Fernández-Reiriz MJ, Piedra S, Labarta U (2014) A modeling study on the hydrodynamics of a coastal embayment occupied by mussel farms (Ria de Ares-Betanzos, NW Iberian Peninsula). Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 147:42–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2014.05.021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ellis WH, Gray DM (1966) Interrelationships between the peak instantaneous and average daily discharges of small prairie streams. Can Agric Eng

  • Fraga I, Cea L, Puertas J, Suárez J, Jiménez V, Jácome A (2016) Global sensitivity and GLUE-based uncertainty analysis of a 2D-1D dual urban drainage model. J Hydrol Eng 21(5):04016004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraga I, Cea L, Puertas J (2017) Validation of a 1D-2D dual drainage model under unsteady part-full and surcharged sewer conditions. Urban Water J 14(1):74–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franke R (1982) Scattered data interpolation: tests of some methods. Math Comput 38:181–200. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0025-5718-1982-0637296-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Fuller WE (1914) Flood flows. Trans Am Soc Civil Eng 77:564–617

    Google Scholar 

  • Garrity NJ, Battalio R, Hawkes PJ, Roupe D (2006) Evaluation of the event and response approaches to estimate the 100-year coastal flood for Pacific coast sheltered waters. In: Proceedings of 30th ICCE, ASCE, pp 1651–1663. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789812709554_0140

  • Garrote J, Alvarenga FM, Díez-Herrero A (2016) Quantification of flash flood economic risk using ultra-detailed stage–damage functions and 2D hydraulic models. J Hydrol 541:611–625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanson H, Larson M (2008) Implications of extreme waves and water levels in the southern Baltic Sea. J Hydraul Res 46(sup2):292–302. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2008.9521962

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkes PJ (2003) Extreme water levels in estuaries and rivers The combined influence of tides, river flows and waves. DEFRA Defra/Environment Agency. R&D Technical Report FD0206/TR1. HR Wallingford Report SR 645

  • Hawkes PJ (2008) Joint probability analysis for estimation of extremes. J Hydraul Res 46(2):246–256. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2008.9521958

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkes PJ, Gouldby BP, Tawn JA, Owen MW (2002) The joint probability of waves and water levels in coastal engineering design. J Hydraul Res 40:241–251. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221680209499940

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayes MO (1979) Barrier island morphology as a function of tidal and wave regime. Barrier Islands - from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the Gulf of Mexico, pp 1–27

  • IH Cantabria (2014) Extreme events hydrograph characterization at Galicia coast watershed. Department of Water Planning Administration of the Galician Government (in Spanish)

  • Kennard RW, Stone LA (1696) Computer aided design of experiments. Technometrics 11(1):137–148. https://doi.org/10.2307/1266770

  • Kirpich ZP (1940) Time of concentration of small agricultural watersheds. Civ Eng 10(6):362

    Google Scholar 

  • Mazas F, Hamm L (2017) An event-based approach for extreme joint probabilities of waves and sea levels. Coast Eng 122:44–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perez-Gomez B (2014) Design and implementation of an operational sea level monitoring and forecasting system for the Spanish coast. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Cantabria

  • Petroliagkis TI, Voukouvalas E, Disperati J, Bildot J (2016) Joint probabilities of storm surge, significant wave height and river discharge components of coastal flooding events. EUR 27824 EN. https://doi.org/10.2788/677778

  • Robson A, Reed R (1999) Flood estimation handbook, statistical procedures for flood frequency estimation, vol 3. Wallingford HydroSolutions, Wallingford

    Google Scholar 

  • Roe PL (1986) Discrete models for the numerical analysis of time-dependent multidimensional gas dynamics. J Comput Phys 63:458–476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rueda A, Vitousek S, Camus P, Tomás A, Espejo A, Losada IJ et al (2017) A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing. Sci Rep 7(1):5038

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svensson C, Jones DA (2002) Dependence between extreme sea surge, river flow and precipitation in eastern Britain. Int J Climatol 22:1149–1168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svensson C, Jones DA (2004) Sensitivity to storm track of the dependence between extreme sea surges and river flows around Britain. In: Hydrology: science and practice for the 21st Century, vol 1, Proceedings from the British Hydrological Society’s international conference, London, UK, pp 239a–245a

  • Taguas EV, Ayuso JL, Pena A, Yuan Y, Sanchez MC, Giraldez JV, Perez R (2008) Testing the relationship between instantaneous peak flow and mean daily flow in a Mediterranean Area Southeast Spain. CATENA 75:129–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2008.04.015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teakle I, Gildas C, Khondker R, Breen M, McGarry D (2005) Boundary conditions for estuarine flood modelling using joint probability analysis. In: Proceedings of coasts and ports: coastal living–living coast, Australasian Conference, pp 613–619

  • Temez JR (1991) Extended and improved rational method. In: Proceedings of XXIV congress of IAHR, Madrid, España, vol A, pp 33–40

  • Thieken A, Merz B, Kreibich H, Apel H (2006) Methods for flood risk assessment: Concepts and challenges. In: International workshop on flash floods in urban areas. Muscat–Sultanate of Oman

  • Van der Made, JW (1969) Design levels in the transition zone between the tidal reach and the river regime reach, Hydrology of Deltas. In: Volume 2 of proceedings of the Bucharest Symposium, May, 1969, pp 246–257

  • Van Gelder PHAJM, Vrijling JK, Van Haarden DH (2004) Joint probability distribution for wave height, wind setup and wind speed. In: 29th International coastal engineering, Lisbon, pp 1032–1046

  • Wadey MP, Brown JM, Haigh ID, Dolphin T, Wisse P (2015) Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15:2209–2225. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster T, McGuigan K, Collins K, MacDonald C (2014) Integrated river and coastal hydrodynamic flood risk mapping of the LaHave River estuary and town of Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, Canada. Water 6:517–546. https://doi.org/10.3390/w6030517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • While CJ (2007) The use of joint probability analysis to predict flood frequency in estuaries and tidal rivers. University of Southampton, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Doctoral Thesis

  • Yu GH, Huang CC (2001) A distribution free plotting position. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 15(6):462–476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhong H, Van Overloop PJ, Van Gelder PHAJM (2013) A joint probability approach using a 1D hydrodynamic model for estimating high water level frequencies in the Lower Rhine Delta. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1841–1852. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1841-2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the Department of Water Planning Administration of the Galician Government (Xunta de Galicia) for providing the DSM of the Betanzos estuary, the data from the flow discharge gauging stations and the synthetic discharge series of the Mandeo River. The authors would also like to thank the Spanish harbour government agency “Puertos del Estado,” for the A Coruña tidal gauge data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Aquática Ingeniería, Vigo, Spain

    J. Sopelana

  2. Environmental and Water Engineering Group, Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Universidade da Coruña, A Coruña, Spain

    L. Cea

  3. Universidade da Coruña, A Coruña, Spain

    S. Ruano

Authors
  1. J. Sopelana
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. L. Cea
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. S. Ruano
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. Sopelana.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sopelana, J., Cea, L. & Ruano, S. A continuous simulation approach for the estimation of extreme flood inundation in coastal river reaches affected by meso- and macrotides. Nat Hazards 93, 1337–1358 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3360-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3360-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation