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Natural Hazards

, Volume 93, Issue 2, pp 887–903 | Cite as

Estimation of the compound hazard severity of tropical cyclones over coastal China during 1949–2011 with copula function

  • Yanting Ye
  • Weihua Fang
Original Paper

Abstract

In China, the intensity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is officially classified into six scales based on the 2-min sustained winds. However, the destructive potential of a TC is determined not only by winds, but also by other hazards such as rainfall. Therefore, the integration of the effects of all the various hazards to reflect the compound severity of a TC is of great importance. In this paper, the maximum wind speed (MWS) at landfall and total precipitation volume (TP) over land in China are obtained as two representative hazards. Copulas, having the capability to construct joint probability distributions of two or more random variables with an unidentified dependence structure among the variables, are utilized to construct the dependence of TC wind and rainfall. Firstly, the cumulative probability distribution functions (CDFs) are fitted separately based on four probability models with 218 historical TC records from 1985 to 2011 over China. Three copula functions are employed to construct the joint probability using the best-fitted marginal CDFs. The best probability functions are determined according to the OLS value. Secondly, the univariate return periods of MWS and TP, and two types of joint return period (\(RP_{ \cup }\) and \(RP_{ \cap }\)) are calculated. We found that the univariate return periods are discrepant for individual hazards and neither is a proper indicator for TC compound hazard severity. The joint return period \(RP_{ \cap }\) is found to be a better indicator of the compound hazard severity of TCs. Finally, the economic losses of 178 historical TCs from 1985 to 2010 are normalized by eliminating the impacts of inflation, increased assets, and population. We find that the joint return period \(RP_{ \cap }\) has a better capacity for representing TC-induced loss. This study highlights the improved capacity of multi-hazard joint return period over univariate return periods for representing the compound hazard severity and damage.

Keywords

Tropical cyclone Compound hazard severity Disaster loss Copula Joint return period 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (NO. 2017YFA0604903), and Special Fund for Climate Change of China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. CCSF201719).

Supplementary material

11069_2018_3329_MOESM1_ESM.xlsx (349 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (XLSX 348 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingPeople’s Republic of China

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