Abstract
A series of global actions have been made to address climate change. As a recent developed climate policy, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) have renewed attention to the importance of exploring temperature rise levels lower than 2 °C, in particular a long-term limit of 1.5 °C, compared to the preindustrial level. Nonetheless, achieving the 2 °C target under the current INDCs depends on dynamic socioeconomic development pathways. Therefore, this study conducts an integrated assessment of INDCs by taking into account different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To that end, the CEEP-BIT research community develops the China’s Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model (C3IAM) to assess the climate change under SSPs in the context of with and without INDCs. Three SSPs, including “a green growth strategy” (SSP1), “a more middle-of-the-road development pattern” (SSP2) and “further fragmentation between regions” (SSP3) form the focus of this study. Results show that after considering INDCs, mitigation costs become very low and they have no evident positive changes in three SSPs. In 2100, a temperature rise would occur in SSP1-3, which is 3.20, 3.48 and 3.59 °C, respectively. There are long-term difficulties to keep warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts toward 1.5 °C target even under INDCs. A drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. This work contributes on realizing the hard link between the earth and socioeconomic systems, as well as extending the economic models by coupling the global CGE model with the economic optimum growth model. In C3IAM, China’s energy consumption and emissions pattern are investigated and refined. This study can provide policy makers and the public a better understanding about pathways through which different scenarios could unfold toward 2100, highlights the real mitigation and adaption challenges faced by climate change and can lead to formulating effective policies.
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Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from China’s National Key R&D Program (2016YFA0602603), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 71521002, 71603020 and 71642004). The authors would like to extend special thanks to Prof. Tad Murty, the Editor-in-Chief, for his invitation and encouragement of completing and submitting this big work. We appreciate our colleagues’ support and help from BIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, National Climate Center of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University, Peking University, and National Information Center.
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Wei, YM., Han, R., Liang, QM. et al. An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM. Nat Hazards 92, 585–618 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3297-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3297-9