Impact of ENSO on typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China
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The typhoon wind hazard along the southeast coast of China impacted by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using an improved statistical dynamics track model of tropical cyclones. Three types of years (El Niño/La Niña/Neutral) during ENSO cycles are confirmed on the basis of Niño 3.4 index averaged from July to October. It is found that the tropical cyclone genesis positions and tracks varied significantly in the three types of years, which turns to influence the passing rates and extreme wind speeds in the coastal areas of southeast China. During El Niño years, the passing rates and extreme wind speeds are lower than the other two types of years obviously. Moreover, the impact of ENSO on typhoon wind hazard of southeast China in different time horizons is examined by considering the variation of frequencies of the three types of years in different time windows. The interannual passing rates and extreme wind speeds vary remarkably; however, the multi-decadal remains more or less unchanged. This suggests that it is worthy of consideration of the variation of typhoon wind hazard posed by ENSO in interannual horizon or return period, while less or not for that of the wind hazard in multi-decadal horizon.
KeywordsEl Niño-Southern Oscillation Statistical dynamics track model Tropical cyclone Wind hazard
Financial support from the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Numbers 91215302, 51378155) is gratefully acknowledged.
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