Natural Hazards

, Volume 92, Issue 3, pp 1763–1788 | Cite as

Advanced casualty estimation based on tsunami evacuation intended behavior: case study at Yuigahama Beach, Kamakura, Japan

  • Tomoyuki Takabatake
  • Tomoya Shibayama
  • Miguel Esteban
  • Hidenori Ishii
Original Paper


Tsunamis are some of the most destructive types of natural hazards that can affect coastal areas. To optimize tsunami mitigation measures, it is important to estimate the potential casualties that can result from one of these events. Taking into account tsunami awareness and the possible evacuation behavior of at-risk individuals is necessary to estimate the number of casualties, though most of the research carried out to date has not considered detailed evacuation behavior when conducting simulations. In the present study, the authors proposed a new approach to estimating the number of tsunami casualties, based on a tsunami evacuation simulation model that considers the evacuation behavior of local residents, tourists and beach users. Such behavior parameters were incorporated by analyzing the results from previous questionnaires surveys. The model was applied to Yuigahama Beach in Kamakura City, Japan, with the aim of assessing potential tsunami casualties and providing suggestions regarding tsunami mitigation measures. The authors conducted seven tsunami inundation simulations for different earthquake scenarios, and then casualties were estimated considering six different evacuation scenarios. Based on the simulation results, it appears particularly important to attempt to improve the intended evacuation behavior of both the local population and visitors. Particularly, providing information about safe places and the routes to reach them is necessary, as prompt evacuation and heading to higher ground were found to be insufficient behavior to save lives during a tsunami event.


Tsunami Casualty estimation Evacuation Agent-based modeling Human behavior 



This work was financially supported by the Strategic Research Foundation Grant-Aided Project for Private Universities from Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, MEXT (Waseda University, No. S1311028).


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tomoyuki Takabatake
    • 1
  • Tomoya Shibayama
    • 1
  • Miguel Esteban
    • 2
  • Hidenori Ishii
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringWaseda UniversityTokyoJapan
  2. 2.Graduate Program in Sustainability Science - Global Leadership Initiative (GPSS-GLI)The University of TokyoChibaJapan

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