Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

Abstract

This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall (temperature) events in the twenty-first century based on 18 (24)-member multimodel simulations of models participating in phase 5 of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The study employed extreme indices defined by the WMO’s Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices, under two radiative forcing scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two 30-year time periods, mid- (2021–2050) and end (2071–2100) of the twenty-first century, are considered for investigation of extremes, relative to the baseline period (1961–1990). Mann–Kendall test statistic and Sen’s slope estimator are used to investigate trend. Temperature shows a remarkable increase with an increase in radiative forcing. A sharp augmentation in temperature is projected towards the end of the twenty-first century. There will be almost zero cool days and cold nights by the end of the century. Very wet and extremely very wet days increase, especially over Uganda and western Kenya. Variation in maximum 1-day precipitation (R × 1 day) and maximum 5-day precipitation amount shows a remarkable increase in variance towards the end of the twenty-first century. Although the results are based on relatively coarse resolution data, they give likely conditions that can be utilized in long-term planning and be relied on in advanced studies.

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Data source: Hastings and Dunbar (1999)

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, through the second author. The authors express their appreciation to Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA) for provision of ETCCDI Extremes Indices. Special thanks go to our host institution; Nanjing University of Information of Science and Technology (NUIST) for promoting research activities. The first author is supported by Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC).

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Ongoma, V., Chen, H., Gao, C. et al. Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. Nat Hazards 90, 901–920 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3079-9

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Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Climate extremes
  • CMIP5
  • Temperature
  • Rainfall
  • ETCCDI
  • East Africa