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Characteristics analysis of spatial and temporal variation on extreme weather events in Anhui Province for recent 50 years

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Abstract

To explore the evolution of extreme weather events, the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation with mutual impact and adaptation are studied. Firstly, it selects the average temperature and the daily precipitation data to investigate the variation characteristics of extreme weather events by linear regression method, accumulative anomalies, Mann–Kendall trend analysis and mutation test with surfer 11 software. Secondly, the effect of weather change on extreme events evolution and its adaptability is analyzed. As for temperature, the average maximum and minimum temperatures increase on the whole in nearly 50 years and decrease gradually from south to north and from east to west with regional distribution. As for precipitation, the extreme precipitation has the mutation and shows a trend of increase for recent 50 years. Compared with different time periods and return periods, the frequency estimates show that extreme precipitation increases firstly and then decreases with each passing day. As for the effect and adaptability, the change of extreme temperature is consistent with extreme precipitation, such as mutation points, and the corresponding spatial relationships. Then the development of weather change is grasped as much as possible, providing the scientific basis for disaster prevention and reduction.

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Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the support of the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2016YFC0401305, 2016YFC0401303), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51409141, 51579059), Key Project of Meteorological Soft Science Research of China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. 2017[20]) and Open Research Foundation for Huai River Meteorology of China (Grant No. HRM201503). The authors also want to thank the people for their helpful suggestions and corrections on the earlier draft of our study according to which we improved the content.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Hydrometeorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, Jiangsu Province, China

    Jun Zhao & Jinchao Xu

  2. School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, Jiangsu Province, China

    Xuechun Li

  3. Jiaxing Airport, Jiaxing, 314000, Zhejiang Province, China

    Yi Zhong

  4. Shanghai Cathay Advertising Co., LTD, Shanghai, 200030, Shanghai, China

    Donghao Han

  5. Ganyu Meteorological Service, Lianyungang, 222100, Jiangsu Province, China

    Hang Qiu

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  1. Jun Zhao
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  2. Jinchao Xu
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  3. Xuechun Li
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  4. Yi Zhong
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  5. Donghao Han
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Correspondence to Jun Zhao.

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Zhao, J., Xu, J., Li, X. et al. Characteristics analysis of spatial and temporal variation on extreme weather events in Anhui Province for recent 50 years. Nat Hazards 89, 817–842 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2995-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2995-z

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