Abstract
Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods.
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Abbreviations
- BCEVD:
-
Bivariate compound extreme value distribution
- JRP:
-
Joint return period
- UCEVD:
-
Univariate compound extreme value distribution
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Acknowledgements
The study was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51479183, 51509227), the National Key Research and Development Program, China (Nos. 2016YFC0303401, 2016YFC0802301) and the Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation, China (No. ZR2014EEQ030).
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Dong, S., Jiao, CS. & Tao, SS. Joint return probability analysis of wind speed and rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected sea area. Nat Hazards 86, 1193–1205 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2736-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2736-8