Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

An empirical method to estimate fatalities caused by earthquakes: the case of the Ahar–Varzaghan earthquakes (Iran)

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The dual Ahar–Varzaghan earthquakes occurred on August 11, 2012, at 16:53 (Iran standard time) in East Azerbaijan province of Iran. The two quakes measured 6.3 and 6.4 on the moment magnitude scale, with the second quake occurring 11 min after the first. Local reports estimated at least 306 deaths, although official reports stated 229, with more than 3000 injured. Most casualties occurred in rural and mountainous areas. The fatalities from the Ahar–Varzaghan earthquakes have been analyzed and a model proposed for estimation of fatalities. The model correlates the fatality count and intensity measures or distance parameters. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the village was selected as the intensity measure; thus, the recorded or predicted PGA in the locations suffering fatalities was required. Available ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) were first used. Because the GMPEs did not fit the recorded data, a simple GMPE was developed using the equation best fitted to the recorded data. The correlations between the number of fatalities and the PGA or distance from epicenter to village were assessed by gender. The results show that the number of fatalities has a stronger relationship with PGA than distance.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abrahamson N, Silva W, Kamai R (2014) Summary of the ASK14 ground-motion relation for active crustal regions. Earthq Spectra. doi:10.1193/070913EQS198M

    Google Scholar 

  • Akkar S, Bommer JJ (2010) Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV and spectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean region and the Middle East. Seismol Res Lett 81:195–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Algermissen ST, Rinehart WA, Dewey JW, Steinbrugge KV, Lagorio HJ, Degen-Kolb HJ, Cluff LS, McClure FE, Scott SN, Gordon RF (1972) A study of earthquake losses in the San Francisco Bay Area: data and analysis. Federal Disaster Assistance Administration, Department of Housing and Urban Development, p 220

  • Ambraseys NN, Douglas J, Sarama SK, Smit PM (2005) Equations for the estimation of strong ground motions from shallow crustal earthquakes using data from Europe and the Middle East: horizontal peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration. Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Badal J, Vázquez-Prada M, González A (2005a) Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages. Nat Hazards 34:353–374 (This suggestion enriches the introduction and simultaneously opens a new way for further research)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Badal J, Vázquez-Prada M, González A, Zhang Z (2005b) Prognostic estimations facing seismic risk levels in Spain. In: International conference 250th anniversary of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake, Lisbon, pp 198–205

  • Berberian M (1976) Contribution to the seismotectonics of Iran (part II): in commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the Pahlavi dynasty. No. 39, Ministry of Industry and Mines, Geological Survey of Iran, Tectonic and Seismotectonic Section

  • Boore DM, Stewart JP, Seyhan E, Atkinson GM (2014) NGA-west 2 equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes. Earthq Spectra. doi:10.1193/070113EQS184M

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell KW, Bozorgnia Y (2014) NGA-West2 ground motion model for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra. Earthq Spectra. doi:10.1193/062913EQS175M

    Google Scholar 

  • Chandra U, McWhorter JG, Nowroozi AA (1979) Attenuation of intensities in Iran. Bull Seismol Soc Am 69(1):237–250

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen SZ, Atkinson GM (2002) Global comparisons of earthquake source spectra. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92(3):885–895

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiou BSJ, Youngs RR (2013) Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra. PEER Report 2013/07 Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center Headquarters, University of California at Berkeley. doi:10.1193/072813EQS219M

  • Christoskov L, Samardjieva E (1984) An approach for estimation of the possible number of casualties during strong earthquakes. Bulg Geophys J 4:94–106

    Google Scholar 

  • Copley A, Faridi M, Ghorashi M, Hollingsworth J, Jackson J, Nazari H, Oveisi B, Talebian M (2014) The 2012 August 11 Ahar earthquakes: consequences for tectonics and earthquake hazard in the Turkish–Iranian Plateau. Geophys J Int 196:15–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghasemi H, Zare M, Fukushima Y, Sinaeian F (2009) Applying empirical methods in site classification using response spectral ratio (H/V): a case study of Iranian strong motion network. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 29(1):121–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Idriss IM (2014) An NGA-West2 empirical model for estimating the horizontal spectral values generated by shallow crustal earthquakes. Earthq Spectra. doi:10.1193/070613EQS195M

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaiswal K, Wald D (2010) An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation. Earthq Spectra 26(4):1017–1037

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kawasumi H (1951) Measures of earthquake danger and expectancy of maximum intensity throughout Japan as inferred from the seismic activity in historical times. Bull Earthq Res Inst 29(3):469–482

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuwata Y, Takada S, Bastami M (2005) Building damage and human casualties during the Bam–Iran earthquake. Asian J Civ Eng (Build Hous) 6(1–2):1–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirzaei N, Mengtan G, Yuntai C (1998) Seismic source regionalization for seismic zoning of Iran: major seismotectonic provinces. J Earthq Pred Res 7:465–495

    Google Scholar 

  • Nichols JM, Beavers JE (2003) Development and calibration of an earthquake fatality function. Earthq Spectra 19(3):605–633

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nowroozi AA (1976) Seismotectonic provinces of Iran. Bull Seismol Soc Am 66(4):1249–1276

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohta Y, Goto N, Ohashi H (1983) An empirical construction of equations for estimating number of victims by earthquakes. Zisin II 36:463–466

    Google Scholar 

  • Oike K (1991) A discussion on the relation between magnitude and number of deaths by earthquakes. In: Proceeding of the international seminar on earthquake and hazard mitigation technology, pp 333–341

  • Samardjieva E, Badal J (2002) Estimation of the expected number of casualties caused by strong earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92(6):2310–2322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soghrat MR, Khaji N, Zafarani H (2012) Simulation of strong ground motion in Northern Iran using the specific barrier model. Geophys J Int 188:645–679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stocklin J (1968) Structural history and tectonics of Iran: a review. AAPG Bull 52(7):1229–1258

    Google Scholar 

  • Takin M (1972) Iranian geology and continental drift in the Middle East. Nature 235:147–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tavakoli B, Ghafory-Ashtiany M (1999) Seismic hazard assessment of Iran. Ann Geophys 42:1013–1021

    Google Scholar 

  • Tavakoli B, Tavakoli S (1993) Estimating the vulnerability and loss functions of residential buildings. Nat Hazards 7(2):155–171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsai YB, Yu TM, Chao HL, Lee CP (2001) Spatial distribution and age dependence of human-fatality rates from the Chi–Chi, Taiwan, earthquake of 21 September 1999. Bull Seismol Soc Am 91(5):1298–1309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zafarani H, Mousavi M, Noorzad AS, Ansari A (2008) Calibration of the specific barrier model to Iranian plateau earthquakes and development of physically based attenuation relationships for Iran. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 28:550–576

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zare M, Bard PY, Ghafory-Ashtiany M (1999) Site characterizations for the Iranian strong motion network. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 18(2):101–123

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Building and Housing Research Center of Iran for providing the accelerograms used in the current study. We especially thank Prof. José Badal as a reviewer for their constructive and helpful comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran

    M. Bastami & M. R. Soghrat

Authors
  1. M. Bastami
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. R. Soghrat
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. Bastami.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bastami, M., Soghrat, M.R. An empirical method to estimate fatalities caused by earthquakes: the case of the Ahar–Varzaghan earthquakes (Iran). Nat Hazards 86, 125–149 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2677-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2677-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation