Natural Hazards

, Volume 85, Issue 1, pp 471–486 | Cite as

Earthquake magnitude prediction in Hindukush region using machine learning techniques

  • K. M. Asim
  • F. Martínez-Álvarez
  • A. Basit
  • T. Iqbal
Original Paper

Abstract

Earthquake magnitude prediction for Hindukush region has been carried out in this research using the temporal sequence of historic seismic activities in combination with the machine learning classifiers. Prediction has been made on the basis of mathematically calculated eight seismic indicators using the earthquake catalog of the region. These parameters are based on the well-known geophysical facts of Gutenberg–Richter’s inverse law, distribution of characteristic earthquake magnitudes and seismic quiescence. In this research, four machine learning techniques including pattern recognition neural network, recurrent neural network, random forest and linear programming boost ensemble classifier are separately applied to model relationships between calculated seismic parameters and future earthquake occurrences. The problem is formulated as a binary classification task and predictions are made for earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 5.5 (\(M \ge\) 5.5), for the duration of 1 month. Furthermore, the analysis of earthquake prediction results is carried out for every machine learning classifier in terms of sensitivity, specificity, true and false predictive values. Accuracy is another performance measure considered for analyzing the results. Earthquake magnitude prediction for the Hindukush using these aforementioned techniques show significant and encouraging results, thus constituting a step forward toward the final robust prediction mechanism which is not available so far.

Keywords

Earthquake prediction Artificial neural networks Time series Machine learning 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Centre for Earthquake Studies, for their continuous support and for providing a platform for carrying out this research. Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology, Junta de Andaluca and University Pablo de Olavide under Projects TIN2011-28956-C02, P12-TIC-1728 and APPB813097 are also acknowledged. Finally, authors would also like to thank friends and colleagues for the useful discussion and ideas.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • K. M. Asim
    • 1
  • F. Martínez-Álvarez
    • 2
  • A. Basit
    • 3
  • T. Iqbal
    • 1
  1. 1.Centre for Earthquake StudiesNational Centre for PhysicsIslamabadPakistan
  2. 2.Department of Computer SciencePablo de Olavide University of SevilleSevilleSpain
  3. 3.TPD, Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and TechnologyIslamabadPakistan

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