Both landscape and river systems over most regions of the world, within China in particular, have experienced unprecedented changes in the past decades, and their impacts from these changes undoubtedly have altered storm runoff generation characteristics and flood regimes in these areas. To assess the effect on flood regime of land-use pattern changes, the upper Huaihe River basin above the Dapoling station was selected as the case study site. On the basis of the topography, land-use/land cover, hydrological and meteorological data in 1990s and 2000s, quantification of the response to the land-use pattern change of flood characteristics was made by using the semi-distributed Xinanjiang model integrated with a distributed dual-source evapotranspiration model. The results revealed that land-use pattern change had significant impact on runoff depth, runoff coefficient, together with flood peak size, duration and timing. Moreover, land-use pattern change also altered the partitioning of runoff components and rainfall–runoff relationship. The output could provide valuable references for the prediction and mitigation of flood hazards, and also for river ecological health, scientific planning, sustainable development and management of the Huaihe River basin in the future.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
Buy single article
Instant access to the full article PDF.
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.
Subscribe to journal
Immediate online access to all issues from 2019. Subscription will auto renew annually.
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.
Bao WM, Zhao LP (2014) Application of linearized calibration method for vertically mixed runoff model parameters. J Hydrol Eng 19:04014007. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000984
Bosch JM, Hewlett JD (1982) A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evapotranspiration. J Hydrol 55(1–4):3–23
Bronstert A, Niehoff D, Bürger G (2002) Effects of climate and land‐use change on storm runoff generation: present knowledge and modelling capabilities. Hydrol Process 16(2):509–529
Crooks S, Davies H (2001) Assessment of land use change in the thames catchment and its effect on the flood regime of the river. Phys Chem Earth, Part B: Hydrol, Oceans Atmos 26(7–8):583–591
Chen Y, Xu Y, Yin Y (2009) Impacts of land use change scenarios on storm runoff generation in Xitiaoxi basin, China. Q Int 208:1–8
Costa MH, Botta A, Cardille JA (2003) Effects of large-scale changes in land cover on the discharge of the Tocantins River, Southeastern Amazonia. J Hydrol 283(1–4):206–217
DeFries R, Eshleman K (2004) Land-use change and hydrologic processes: a major focus for the future. Hydrol Process 18:2183–2186
Dasanto BD, Pramudya B, Boer R et al (2014) Effects of forest cover change on flood characteristics in the upper citarum watershed. J Trop For Manag 20(3):141–149
Deasy C, Titman A, Quinton JN (2014) Measurement of flood peak effects as a result of soil and land management, with focus on experimental issues and scale. J Environ Manage 132:304–312
Du S, Van Rompaey A, Shi P (2015) A dual effect of urban expansion on flood risk in the Pearl River Delta (China) revealed by land-use scenarios and direct runoff simulation. Nat Hazards 77(1):111–128
Farley KA, Jobbagy EG, Jackson RB (2005) Effects of afforestation on water yield: a global synthesis with implications for policy. Glob Change Biol 11(10):1565–1576
Gao C, Jiang T, Zhai JQ (2012) Analysis and prediction of climate change in the Huaihe river Basin. Chin J Agrometeorol 33(1):8–17
Gupta SC, Kessler AC, Brown MK, Zvomuya F (2015) Climate and agricultural land use change impacts on streamflow in the upper midwestern United States. Water Resour Res 51:5301–5317. doi:10.1002/2015WR017323
Harbor JM (1994) A practical method for estimating the impact of land-use change on surface runoff, groundwater recharge and wetland hydrology. J Am Plan As 60(1):95–108. doi:10.1080/01944369408975555
Ju Q, Yu ZB, Hao ZC, Ou GX, Zhao J, Liu DD (2009) Division-based rainfall-runoff simulations with BP neural networks and Xinanjiang model. Neurocomp Variable Star Bull 72(13–15):2873–2883
Li QF, Cai T, Yu MX, Lu GB, Xie W, Bai X (2013) Investigation into the impacts of land-use change on runoff generation characteristics in the upper Huaihe River Basin, China. J Hydrol Eng 18:1464–1470
Lima WP, Laprovitera R, Ferraz SFB, Rodrigues CB, Silva MM (2012) Forest plantations and water consumption: a strategy for hydrosolidarity. Int J For Res 2012:1–8
Lu ZG, Zhang XH, Huo JL et al (2011) Evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River basin during 1960–2008. Sci Meteorol Sin 31:77–83
Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR et al (2005) Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation, version 2005. http://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/
Niehoff D, Fritsch U, Bronstert A (2002) Land-use impacts on storm-runoff generation: cenarios of land-use change and simulation of hydrological response in a meso-scale catchment in SW-Germany. J Hydrol 267:80–93
O’Connell PE, Ewen J, O’Donnell G, Quinn P (2007) Is there a link between agricultural land-use management and flooding? Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Dis 11(1):96–107
O’Donnell G, Ewen J, O’Connell PE (2011) Sensitivity maps for impacts of land management on an extreme flood in the Hodder catchment, UK. Phys Chem Earth 36:630–637
Ogden FL, Crouch TD, Stallard RF, Hall JS (2013) Effect of land cover and use on dry season river runoff, runoff efficiency, and peak storm runoff in the seasonal tropics of Central Panama. Water Resour Res 49:8443–8462. doi:10.1002/2013WR013956
Raymond P, Oh N-H, Turner RE, Broussard W (2008) Anthropogenically enhanced fluxes of water and carbon from the Mississippi River. Nature 451:449–452. doi:10.1038/nature06505
Ren LL, Liu XR (2000) A review of the digital elevation model extraction and digital hydrological modeling. Adv Water Sci 11(4):463–469
Saghafian B, Farazjoo H, Bozorgy B, Yazdandoost F (2008) Flood intensification due to changes in land use. Water Resour Manage 22:1051–1067
Suriya S, Mudgal BV (2012) Impact of urbanization on flooding: the Thirusoolam sub watershed—a case study. J Hydrol 412–413:210–219
Watson D (1947) Comparative physiological studies on the growth of field crops: I. variation in net assimilation rate and leaf area between species and varieties, and within and between years. Annals Bot 11(41):41–76. http://www.jstor.org/stable/42907002
Yao C, Zhang K, Yu Z, Li Z, Li Q (2014) Improving the flood prediction capability of the Xinanjiang model in ungauged nested catchments by coupling it with the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph. J Hydrol 517:1035–1048
Zhao RJ (1992) The Xinanjiang model applied in China. J Hydrol 135:371–381
Zhang YK, Schilling KE (2006) Increasing streamflow and baseflow in Mississippi River since the 1940s: effect of land use change. J Hydrol 324(1–4):412–422
Zhao RJ, Liu XR, Singh VP (1995) The Xinanjiang model. Computer models of watershed hydrology. 215–232
Financial support is gratefully acknowledged from the National Science Foundation Commission under Grant No. 41171220, China, the project (2014B04314) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, the project (BK20160868) supported by the Jiangsu Province Science Foundation, Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, National Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety & Hydro-Science, Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41330854 and 41371063). All authors declare that they have no conflicts of interests during this submission.
About this article
Cite this article
Yu, M., Li, Q., Liu, X. et al. Quantifying the effect on flood regime of land-use pattern changes via hydrological simulation in the upper Huaihe River basin, China. Nat Hazards 84, 2279–2297 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2552-1
- Land-use pattern change
- Flood hazard
- Upper Huaihe River basin
- Semi-distributed Xinanjiang model
- Distributed dual-source evapotranspiration model