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A framework to analyze vulnerability of critical infrastructure to climate change: the case of a coastal community in Florida

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Abstract

Critical infrastructures are essential for the society and economy. In recent years, climate change has been identified as an urgent and growing threat to critical infrastructures, and many studies have been conducted to assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructures to climate change. However, despite these research efforts, the vulnerability of critical infrastructures is often vaguely defined and inconsistently studied in the literature. This paper proposes a framework to analyze critical infrastructure’s vulnerability to climate change based on the traditional vulnerability/sustainability framework and hazard-of-place model of vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment of emergency services to sea level rise and storm surge in Collier County, Florida, is taken as an example to validate the proposed framework. Flood simulation, comparisons of storm surge models, spatial analysis, and network-based service area analysis are conducted to assess the vulnerability of fire stations in the case study area. The vulnerability assessment identifies the predominant hazard risk and the exposed infrastructures, analyzes the sensitivity of serviceability, and evaluates the effectiveness of potential adaptive capacity. The results show that the fire stations in the case study area are more vulnerable to the potential landfall and changes in hurricane and tropical cyclone patterns compared to the flooding caused directly by sea level rise. It indicates that the lack of consideration of potential landfall and changes in storms could greatly underestimate the vulnerability to climate change, especially in coastal areas with limited historical tidal data. The analysis also illustrates the current floodplain management that focuses primarily on the 100-year flood may not be a sufficient standard for all regions given the potential changes in frequency and magnitude of climate-related hazards. Finally, it confirms that disaster risk management strategies could also contribute to climate change adaptation. The weak linkages between existing climate change adaptation and disaster risk management need to be strengthened. The proposed concept and framework could be generalized and expanded to other critical infrastructures, regions, and climate-related hazards.

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Data source: Climate Central (2014). Local sea level rise and coastal flood risk projections at Naples, FL. Retrieved from Surging Seas Risk Finder: http://ssrf.climatecentral.org/#location=FL_Town_1245000&state=Florida&level=3&geo=County&pt=p&target=&p=P&stn=8725110&setting=ACE_med&protection=&stLoc=FL_Town_1245000&proj=Total DEM, retrieved from NOAA digital coast http://coast.noaa.gov/slrdata/

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Acknowledgments

Collier County Bureau of Emergency Services Division (BES) and Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) have provided data and help to support the case study. In particular, the authors would like to thank Richard Zyvoloski from Bureau of Emergency Services, Brandy Otero and Lorraine Lantz from Metropolitan Planning Organization for their help. However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Collier County BES or MPO.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Saunders Hall 107, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA

    Suwan Shen

  2. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 1100 Dexter Ave N. Suite 400 BSRC, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA

    Xi Feng

  3. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Florida, PO Box 115706, Gainesville, FL, 32611-5706, USA

    Zhong Ren Peng

  4. School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China

    Zhong Ren Peng

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  1. Suwan Shen
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Correspondence to Suwan Shen.

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Shen, S., Feng, X. & Peng, Z.R. A framework to analyze vulnerability of critical infrastructure to climate change: the case of a coastal community in Florida. Nat Hazards 84, 589–609 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2442-6

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