Advertisement

Natural Hazards

, Volume 83, Issue 3, pp 1717–1729 | Cite as

Northern hemisphere tropical cyclones during the quasi-El Niño of late 2014

  • A. H. SobelEmail author
  • Suzana J. Camargo
  • A. G. Barnston
  • M. K. Tippett
Original Paper

Abstract

During the second half of 2014, the tropical Pacific was in a state marginally consistent with El Niño. While oceanic indicators were indicative of a weak El Niño event, a number of atmospheric indicators were not, and a number of forecast centers did not declare an El Niño. Nonetheless, the most active tropical cyclone basins of the northern hemisphere—those of the North Atlantic and Pacific—showed tropical cyclone statistics that in some respects were consistent with El Niño. In particular, the numbers of relatively intense storms in the four basins considered—major hurricanes in the Eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic, super typhoons in the Western North Pacific, and hurricanes in the Central North Pacific—formed a pattern strongly consistent with El Niño.

Keywords

Tropical cyclones El Niño Southern oscillation Climate 

References

  1. Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Weng H, Yamagata T (2007) El Niño modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res 112:C11007. doi: 10.1029/2006JC003798 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Balaguru K, Ruby L, Yoon JH (2013) Oceanic control of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at interannual timescales. Environ Res Lett 8:044009. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044009 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Barnston AG, Li S, Mason SJ, deWitt DG, Goddard L, Gong X (2010) Verification of the first 11 years of IRI’s seasonal climate forecasts. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 49:493–520. doi: 10.1175/2009JAMC2325.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Barnston AG, Tippett MK, L’Heureux ML, Li S, DeWitt DG (2012) Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002–2011. Is our capability increasing? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:631–651. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bell GD, Halpert MS, Schnell RC, Higgins RW, Lawrimore J, Kousky VE, Tinker R, Thiaw W, Chelliah M, Artusa A (2000) Climate assessment for 1999. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:S1–S50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bell GD, Blake ES, Landsea CW, Goldenberg SB, Kimberlain TB, Pasch RJ, Schemm J (2015) Atlantic basin. In: State of the climate in 2014. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96(7):S101–S107Google Scholar
  7. Blake ES, Gibney EJ, Brown DP, Mainelli M, Franklin JL, Kimberlain TB, Hammer GR (2009). Tropical cyclones of the eastern North Pacific basin, 1949–2006. In: Historical climatology series 6-5. National Climate Data Center, Ashville, NCGoogle Scholar
  8. Bove MC, Elsner JB, Landsea CW, Niu X, O’Brien J (1998) Effect of El Niño on US landfalling hurricanes, revisited. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:2477–2482CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Camargo SJ (2015) Western North Pacific basin. In: State of the climate in 2014. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96 (7):S112–S115Google Scholar
  10. Camargo SJ, Barnston AG (2009) Experimental seasonal dynamical forecasts of tropical cyclone activity at IRI. Weather Forecast 24:472–491CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Camargo SJ, Sobel AH (2005) Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim 18:2996–3006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Camargo SJ, Robertson AW, Gaffney SJ, Smyth P, Ghil M (2007) Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part II: large-scale circulation and ENSO. J Clim 20:3654–3676CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Camargo SJ, Robertson AW, Barnston AG, Ghil M (2008) Clustering of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks: ENSO and MJO effects. Geochem Geophys and Geosys 9:Q06V05. doi: 10.1029/2007GC001861
  14. Camargo SJ, Sobel AH, Barnston AG, Klotzbach PJ (2010) The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity. In: Chan JCL, Kepert JD (eds) Global perspectives on tropical cyclones, from science to mitigation, 2nd edn., Series on earth system science in Asia chap 11, pp. 325–360. World Scientific, SingaporeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Chan JCL (1985) Tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific in relation to El Niño/southern oscillation phenomenon. Mon Weather Rev 113:599–606CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Chia HH, Ropelewski CF (2002) The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. J Clim 15:2934–2944CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Chu PS (2004) Hurricanes and typhoons, past, present and future. In: Murnane RJ, Liu K-B (eds) ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. Columbia University Press, New York, pp 297–332Google Scholar
  18. Chu JH, Sampson CR, Levine AS, Fukada E (2002) The joint typhoon warning center tropical cyclone best-tracks, 1945–2000. Tech Rep. NRL/MR/7540-02-16, Naval Research LaboratoryGoogle Scholar
  19. Davis K, Zeng X, Ritchie EA (2015) A new statistical model to predict seasonal North Atlantic hurricane activity. Weather Forecast 30:730–741. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00156.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrea U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer A, Haimberger L, Healy S, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BP, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut JN, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Fogarty CT, Klotzbach P (2015) 2013 versus 2014 Atlantic hurricane activity - Brief comparison of two below-average seasons. In: State of the climate in 2014. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96 (7):S104–S105Google Scholar
  22. Frank WM, Young GS (2007) The interannual variability of tropical cyclones. Mon Weather Rev 135:3587–3598CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Goddard L, Dilley M (2005) El Niño: catastrophe or opportunity? J Clim 18:651–665CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Goddard L, Kumar A, Hoerling MP, Barnston AG (2006) Diagnosis of anomalous winter temperatures over the eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño. J Clim 19:5624–5636CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Gray WM (1984) Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El-Niño and 30-MB quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon Weather Rev 112:1649–1688CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Irwin RP, Davis RE (1999) The relationship between the Southern oscillation index and tropical cyclone tracks in the eastern North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 26:2251–2254CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Jin EK, Kinter J, Wang B, Park CK, Kang IS, Kirtman BP, Kug JS, Kumar A, Luo JJ, Schemm J, Shukla J, Yagamata T (2008) Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Clim Dyn 31:647–664CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Jin FF, Boucharel J, Lin II (2014) Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones intensified by El Niño delivery of subsurface ocean heat. Nature 516:82–85CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Johnson NC (2013) How many ENSO flavors can we distinguish? J Clim 26:4816–4827CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kim H, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2009) Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean warming on North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Science 325:77–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Kimberlain TB, Blake ES, Cangialosi JP (2016) Hurricane patricia. Tropical Cyclone Report, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patricia
  32. Klotzbach PJ, Gray WM (2009) Twenty-five years of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts (1984–2008). Geophys Res Lett 36:L09711CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Kruk MC, Schreck CJ, Evans T (2015) Eastern North Pacific and Central North Pacific basins. In: State of the climate in 2014. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96 (7):S107–S112Google Scholar
  34. Landsea CW (2000) El Niño: impacts of multiscale variability on natural ecosystems and society. In: Díaz HF, Markgraf V (eds) El Niño-southern oscillation and the seasonal predictability of tropical cyclones. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 149–181Google Scholar
  35. Landsea CW, Franklin JL (2013) Atlantic hurricane database uncertainty and presentation of a new database format. Mon Weather Rev 141:3576–3592CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Landsea CW, Knaff JA (2000) How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997–1998 El Niño? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:2107–2119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Barnova OK, Garcia HE, Locarnini A, Mishonov AV, Reagan JR, Seidov D, Yarosh ES, Zweng MM (2012) World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–201. Geophys Res Lett 39:L10603. doi: 10.1029/2012GL051106 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. L’Heureux M, Halpert M, Bell GD (2015) ENSO and the tropical Pacific. In: State of the climate in 2014. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96 (7):S91–S93Google Scholar
  39. Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:1275–1277Google Scholar
  40. Lin II, Black P, Price F, Yang CY, Chen SS, Lien CC, Harr P, Chi NH, Wu CC, D’Asaro EA (2013) An ocean coupling potential intensity index for tropical cyclone. Geophys Res Lett 40:1878–1882. doi: 10.1002/grl.50091 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Livezey RE, Timofeyeva MM (2008) The first decade of long-lead U.S. seasonal forecasts. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:843–854. doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2488.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Maue RN (2009) Northern hemisphere tropical cyclone activity. Geophys Res Lett 36:L05805CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Maue RN (2011) Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity. Geophys Res Lett 38:L14803CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. McPhaden MJ (2015) Playing hide and seek with el Niño. Nat Clim Change 5:791–795. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2775 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. McPhaden MJ, Timmermman A, Widlansky MJ, Balsameda MA, Stockdale TN (2015) The curious case of the El Niño that never happened: a perspective from 40 years of progess in climate research and forecasting. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96:1647–1665. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00089.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Murakami H, Vecchi GA, Delworth T, Paffendorf K, Gudgel R, Jia L, Zheng F (2015) Investigating the influence of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability on the 2014 Hawaiian hurricane season. In: Explaining extremes of 2014 from a climate perspective. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96(12):S115–S119Google Scholar
  47. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Smith TM, Reynolds RW (2004) Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854–1997). J Clim 17:2466–2477CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Tippett MK, Sobel AH, Camargo SJ (2012) Association of monthly U.S. tornado occurrence with large-scale atmospheric parameters. Geophys Res Lett 39:L02801. doi: 10.1175/2011GL050368 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Vecchi GA, Delworth R, Gudgel R, Kapnick S, Rosati A, Wittenberg AT, Zeng F, Anderson W, Balaji V, Dixon K, Jia L, Kim HS, Krishnamurty L, Msadek R, Stern WF, Underwood SD, Villarini G, Yang X, Zhang S (2014) On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 27:7994–8016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Vincent EM, Emanuel KA, Lengaigne M, Vialard J, Madec G (2014) Influence of upper-ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones. J Adv Model Earth Syst 6:680–699. doi: 10.1002/2014MS00032 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Vitart F, Huddleston MR, Déqué M, Peake D, Palmer TN, Stockdale TN, Davey MK, Inenson S, Weisheimer A (2007) Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys Res Lett 34:L16815. doi: 10.1029/2007GL030740 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Yang L, Wang X, Huang K, Wang D (2015) Anomalous tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in August 2014. In: Explaining extremes of 2014 from a climate perspective. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96(12):S120–S125Google Scholar
  54. Zhang W, Leung Y, Fraedrich K (2015) Different El Niño types and intense typhoons in the Western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 44:2965–2977. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2446-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Applied Physics and Applied MathematicsColumbia UniversityNew YorkUSA
  2. 2.Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisadesUSA
  3. 3.International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyColumbia UniversityPalisadesUSA
  4. 4.Department of Meteorology, Center for Excellence for Climate ResearchKing Abdulaziz UniversityJeddahSaudi Arabia

Personalised recommendations