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The 2015 Nepal M8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China

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Abstract

According to the statistical analysis, a total of 25 M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China and neighborhood from 1300 to 2015. The seismic activity of M ≥ 8 earthquakes has shown an obvious commensurability and self-organized orderliness. It should be remarked especially that the Nepal great earthquakes have a significant relationship with the M ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China. Within such a short 100 years from 1902 to 2001, three ordered pairs of M ≥ 8 earthquakes took place in West China: 1902–1906, 1927–1931, and 1997–2001, each pair of two earthquakes had a time interval of 4 years, which is a quite unique and rare example in the earthquake history of China and the whole world. Based on the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, this paper focuses on the summary of the ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes, supplements new information of three M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Nepal: M8 in 1833, M8.1 in 1934, and M8.1 in 2015, hence constructs and further optimizes the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes to make prediction research. The results show that the occurrence of the 2015 Nepal M8.1 earthquake indicates the beginning of another M ≥ 8 earthquake cycle in West China. The great or strong earthquakes will probably happen in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau area and gradually migrate from the south to the north for decades. A new ordered pair of M ≥ 8 earthquakes will probably occur around 2022 and 2026 in West China, as well as a single event around 2029.

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Acknowledgments

We extend heartfelt thanks to Chief Editor and referees for their valuable comments. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Granted 41174165, 61572015. Innovation Project of Graduate Education in Jiangsu province Granted CXLX13-501, 201410300081, and the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST (2243141501052).

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  1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Ke-Pei Men & Kai Zhao

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  1. Ke-Pei Men
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  2. Kai Zhao
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Correspondence to Kai Zhao.

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Men, KP., Zhao, K. The 2015 Nepal M8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China. Nat Hazards 82, 1767–1777 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2268-2

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