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A household-level flood evacuation decision model in Quezon City, Philippines

Natural Hazards volume 80, pages 1539–1561 (2016)Cite this article

Abstract

Evacuation is one of the important preparedness measures in disaster management. It requires careful modeling and planning to minimize chaos and confusion during evacuation operations. The choice of decision-makers, whether to evacuate or stay in the area threatened by hazard, is an important aspect of evacuation travel behavior research. This is considered an essential input for evacuation modeling and planning. This study investigates the effects of various factors determining evacuation decision. A discrete choice model is proposed using the data collected through a face-to-face post-event survey from flood-affected households in Quezon City, Philippines. The model allows a choice among three alternatives of full, partial, and no evacuation. Results show that evacuation decision is determined by a combination of household characteristics and capacity-related factors (gender, educational level, presence of children, and number of years living in the residence, house ownership, number of house floor levels, type of house material), as well as hazard-related factors (distance from source of flood, level of flood damage, and source of warning). Findings in the study provide insights that can be considered by policy-makers in preparing for future evacuations. Appropriate programs can be designed to encourage full evacuation compliance of households that live nearest to the flood source and those living in houses with two or more floor levels who are more likely not to evacuate. Households with children can also be educated for full evacuation compliance since these households have higher probability to partially evacuate.

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Acknowledgments

This research was funded in part through the scholarship given by Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), Thammasat University, Thailand. The accuracy of the information written in this paper is the sole responsibility of the authors and does not in any way represent the ideas of SIIT. The authors are grateful to all the officials of Quezon City Government who assisted in facilitating the data collection and providing the secondary data and other pertinent information.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering and Technology, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, P.O. Box 22, Pathum Thani, 12121, Thailand

    Ma. Bernadeth B. Lim, Hector R. Lim Jr. & Mongkut Piantanakulchai

  2. School of Civil, Environmental and Geological Engineering, Mapua Institute of Technology, Muralla St., Intramuros, 1001, Manila City, Philippines

    Francis Aldrine Uy

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  1. Ma. Bernadeth B. Lim
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  2. Hector R. Lim Jr.
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  3. Mongkut Piantanakulchai
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Correspondence to Ma. Bernadeth B. Lim.

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Lim, M.B.B., Lim, H.R., Piantanakulchai, M. et al. A household-level flood evacuation decision model in Quezon City, Philippines. Nat Hazards 80, 1539–1561 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2038-6

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Keywords

  • Flood
  • Evacuation decision
  • Travel behavior
  • Evacuation modeling
  • Discrete choice

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