Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Development of the CanRisk earthquake injury model

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

CanRisk is a tool to assess the seismic vulnerability of buildings in Canada. CanRisk models that support the individual evaluation of reinforced concrete, masonry, steel, and timber-frame buildings have been recently developed. Herein, a new model for CanRisk is presented that quantifies an individual’s risk of earthquake injury, the number of injuries, and provides an injury profile of life-threatening injuries at the building scale. The model uses an evidence-based and multi-disciplinary approach to identifying risk factors that affect an individual’s likelihood of being injured in an earthquake. The model implements fuzzy synthetic evaluation to quantify seismic risk, combines Hazus methodology with methodology presented herein to estimate number of injuries, and uses a decision matrix to generate the injury profiles. The model is designed to include the ability to test the benefits of mitigation strategies such as the retrofit of operational and functional components and the implementation of earthquake safety campaigns.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abdul-Rahman H, Wang C, Lee YL (2013) Design and pilot run of fuzzy synthetic model (FSM) for risk evaluation in civil engineering. J Civ Eng Manag 19:217–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexander D (1985) Death and injury in earthquakes. Disasters 9:57–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexander D (1996) The health effects of earthquakes in the mid-1990s. Disasters 20:231–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ardagh MW, Richardson SK, Robinson V, Than M, Gee P, Henderson S, Khodaverdi L, McKie J, Robertson G, Schroeder PP, Deely JM (2012) The initial health-system response to the earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand, in February, 2011. Lancet 372:2109–2115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Armenian HK, Noji EK, Oganesian AP (1992) A case-control study of injuries arising from the earthquake in Armenia, 1988. Bull World Health Organ 70:251–258

    Google Scholar 

  • Astoul A, Filliter C, Mason E, Rau-Chaplin A, Shridhar K, Varghese B, Varshney N (2013) Developing and testing the Automated post-event earthquake loss estimation and visualization (APE-ELEV) technique. Bull Earthq Eng 11:1973–2005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auf der Heide E (2006) The importance of evidence-based disaster planning. Ann Emerg Med 47:34–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bates HT, Young MP (2003) Applying fuzzy logic to medical decision making in the intensive care unit. Am J Crit Care Med 167:948–952

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beinin L (1985) Public health consequences of earthquakes. Medical consequences of natural disasters. Springer, Berlin, pp 12–27

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Bell DG, Tikuisis P, Jacobs I (1992) Relative intensity of muscular contraction during shivering. J App Physiol 72:2336–2342

    Google Scholar 

  • Bruneau M (1990) Preliminary report of structural damage from the Loma Prieta (San Francisco) earthquake of 1989 and pertinent to Canadian structural engineering practice. Can J Civil Eng 17:198–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruneau M, Lamontagne M (1994) Damage from 20th century earthquakes in eastern Canada and seismic vulnerability of unreinforced masonry buildings. Can J Civil Eng 21:643–662

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coburn A, Spence R (2002) Earthquake protection. Wiley, West Sussex

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Dooley D, Catalano R, Mishra S, Serxner S (1992) Earthquake preparedness: predictors in a community survey. J Appl Soc Psychol 22:451–470

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Du Ree AC (1941) Fire-department operations during the Long Beach earthquake of 1933. Bull Seism Soc Am 31:9–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Durkin ME (1985) Behavior of building occupants in earthquakes. Earthq Spectra 1:271–283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Durkin ME, Murakami HO (1988) Casualties, survival, and entrapment in heavily damaged buildings. In: Proceedings of ninth world conference on earthquake engineering, Tokyo–Kyoto, 02–09 Aug 1988

  • Durkin ME, Thiel CC Jr (1992) Improving measures to reduce earthquake casualties. Earthq Spectra 8:95–113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Durkin ME, Thiel CC Jr, Schneider JE, De Vriend T (1991a) Injuries and emergency medical response in the Loma Prieta earthquake. Bull Seism Soc Am 81:2143–2166

    Google Scholar 

  • Durkin ME, Coulson AH, Hijar M, Kraus J, Murakami HO (1991b) The survival of people in collapsed buildings. Disaster chronicles: earthquake in Mexico, September 19 and 20, 1985, vol 3. Panamerican Health Organization, Washington D.C, pp 55–76

    Google Scholar 

  • Elsabbagh A (2013) Seismic risk assessment of unreinforced masonry buildings using fuzzy based techniques and the regional seismic risk assessment of Ottawa, Ontario. M.ASc. thesis. University of Ottawa

  • Federal Emergency Management Agency (2012) Hazus ®-MH 2.1—Earthquake model technical manual. Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington D.C

  • Frolova N, Larionov V, Bonnin J (2011) Earthquake casualties estimation in emergency mode. In: Spence R, So E, Scawthorn C (eds) Human casualties in earthquakes: progress in modelling and mitigation. Advanced in natural and technological research, vol 29. Springer, The Netherlands, pp 107–124

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Fulford G, Jones T, Stehle J, Corby N, Robinson D, Schneider J, Dhu T (2002) Earthquake risk. In: Dhu T, Jones T (eds) Earthquake risk in newcastle & lake Macquarie. Geoscience Australia, Canberra, pp 103–122

    Google Scholar 

  • Iampietro PF (1961) Prediction of skin temperature of men in the cold. J App Physiol 16:405–408

    Google Scholar 

  • International Standard Organization (2004) ISO8996:2004 Ergonomics of the thermal environment—determination of metabolic rate

  • Jones T, Dhu T (2002) Summary. Earthquake risk. In: Dhu T, Jones T (eds) Earthquake risk in newcastle & lake Macquarie. Geoscience Australia, Canberra, pp 1–14

    Google Scholar 

  • Komsari S (2014) Seismic risk assessment of wood frame construction using fuzzy based techniques. M.ASc. thesis. University of Ottawa

  • Lamontagne M (2002) An overview of some significant eastern Canadian earthquakes and their impacts on the geological environment, buildings and the public. Nat Hazards 26:55–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lomnitz C (1970) Casualties and behaviour of populations during earthquakes. Bull Seism Soc Am 60:1309–1313

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahue-Giangreco M, Mack W, Seligson H, Bourque LB (2001) Risk factors associated with moderate and serious injuries attributable to the 1994 Northridge earthquake, Los Angeles, California. Ann Epidemiol 11:347–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maruo S, Matumoto M (1996) Spinal fractures resulting from the 1995 Great Hanshin earthquake of the Kobe–Osaka area of Japan. Spinal Cord 34:382–386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mawson AR (2005) Understanding mass panic and other collective responses to threat and disaster. Psychiatry 68:95–113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McArthur DL, Peek-Asa C, Kraus JF (2000) Injury hospitalizations before and after the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Am J Emerg Med 18:361–366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKevitt WE, Timler PAM, Lo KK (1995) Nonstructural damage from the Northridge earthquake. Can J Civil Eng 22:428–437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mi C, Zhang X, Li S, Yang J, Zhu D, Yang Y (2011) Assessment of environment lodging stress for maize using fuzzy synthetic evaluation. Math Comput Model 54:1053–1060

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell D, DeVall RH, Saatcioglu M, Simpson R, Tinawi R, Tremblay R (1995) Damage to concrete structures due to the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Can J Civil Eng 22:361–377

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulvey JM, Awan SU, Qadri AA, Maqsood MA (2008) Profile of injuries arising from the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: the first 72 h. Injury 39:554–560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nguyen LH, Shen H, Ershoff D, Afifi AA, Bourque LB (2006) Exploring the casual relationship between exposure to the 1994 Northridge earthquake and pre- and post-earthquake preparedness activities. Earthq Spectra 22:569–587

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Noji EK, Kelen GD, Armenian HK, Oganessian A, Jones NP, Siverston KT (1990) The 1988 earthquake in Soviet Armenia: a case study. Ann Emerg Med 19:891–897

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nuzzo R (2014) Statistical errors. Nature 506:150–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ohashi H, Ohta Y (1984) Importance of indoor and environmental performance against an earthquake for mitigating casualties. In: Proceedings of the eighth world conference on earthquake engineering, San Francisco, United States, 21–28 July 1984, pp 65–662

  • Ozdogan S, Hocaoglu A, Caglayan B, Imamoglu OU, Aydin D (2001) Thorax and lung injuries arising from the two earthquakes in Turkey in 1999. Chest 120:1163–1166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papadopoulos IN, Kanakaris N, Triantafillidis A, Stefanakos J, Kainourgios A, Leukidis C (2004) Autopsy findings from 111 deaths in the 1999 Athens earthquake as a basis for auditing the emergency response. Br J Surg 91:1633–1640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paultre P, Lefebvre G, Devic J-P, Cote G (1993) Statistical analyses of damages to buildings in the 1988 Saguenay earthquake. Can J Civil Eng 20:988–998

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peek-Asa C, Kraus JF, Bourque LB, Vimalachandra D, Yu J, Abrams J (1998) Fatal and hospitalized injuries resulting from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Int J Epidemiol 27:459–465

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peek-Asa C, Ramirez M, Seligson H, Shoaf K (2003) Seismic, structural, and individual factors associated with earthquake related injury. Inj Prev 9:62–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ploeger SK (2008) Applying the HAZUS-MH software tool to assess seismic hazard and vulnerability in downtown Ottawa, Canada. M.Sc. thesis, Carleton University

  • Ploeger SK (2014) Development and application of the CanRisk injury model and a disaster spatial decision support system (SDSS) to evaluate seismic risk in the context of emergency management in Canada: Case study of Ottawa, Canada. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Ottawa

  • Ramirez M, Peek-Asa C (2005) Epidemiology of traumatic injuries from earthquakes. Epidemiol Rev 27:47–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roces MC, White ME, Dayrit MM, Durkin ME (1992) Risk factors for injuries due to the 1990 earthquake in Luzon, Philippines. Bull World Health Organ 70:509–515

    Google Scholar 

  • Russell LA, Goltz JD, Bourque LB (1995) Preparedness and hazard mitigation actions before and after two earthquakes. Environ Behav 27:744–770

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saatcioglu, M. (2014). Personal communication. University of Ottawa

  • Scawthorn C (1989) Estimation of post-earthquake search and rescue personnel and equipment needs. In: Jones N, Noji E, Smith G, Krimgold F (eds) International Workshop on earthquake injury epidemiology for mitigation and response. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States. Springer, 10–12 July 1989, pp 394–414

  • Schaser K-D, Stover JF, Melcher I, Lauffer A, Haas MP, Bail HJ, Stockle U, Puhl G, Mittlmeier TW (2006) Local cooling restores microcirculatory hemodynamics after closed soft-tissue trauma in rats. J Trauma 61:642–649

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheulen JJ, Thanner MH, Hsu EB, Latimer CK, Brown J, Kelen GD (2009) Electronic mass casualty assessment and planning scenarios (EMCAPS): development and application of computer modelling to selected national planning scenarios for high-consequence events. Ann Emerg Med 53:226–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sedan O, Negulescu C, Terrier M, Roulle A, Winter T, Bertil D (2013) Armagedom—a tool for seismic risk assessment illustrated with applications. J Earthq Eng 17:253–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw R, Shiwaku K, Kobayashi H, Kobayashi M (2004) Linking experience, education, perception and earthquake preparedness. Disaster Prev Manage 13:39–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheng C-Y (1987) Medical support in the Tangshan earthquake: a review of the management of mass casualties and certain major injuries. J Trauma 27:1130–1135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shoaf KI, Nguyen LH, Sareen HR, Bourque LB (1998) Injuries as a result of California earthquakes in the past decade. Disasters 22:218–235

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spence R, So E, Jenkins S, Coburn A, Ruffle S (2011) A global earthquake building damage and casualty database. In: Spence R, So E, Scawthorn C (eds) Human casualties in earthquakes: progress in modelling and mitigation. Advanced in natural and technological research, vol 29. Springer, The Netherlands, pp 65–79

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Stallings RA (2002) Methodological issues. In: Rodriguez H, Quarantelli EL, Dynes RR (eds) Handbook of disaster research. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Takagi R, Fujita N, Arakawa T, Kawada S, Ishii N, Miki A (2011) Influence of icing on muscle regeneration after crush injury to skeletal muscles in rats. J App Physiol 110:382–388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tanaka H, Oda J, Iwai A, Kuwagata Y, Matsuoka T, Takaoka M, Kishi M, Morimoto F, Ishikawa K, Mizushima Y, Nakata Y, Yamamura H, Iraide A, Shimazu T, Yoshioka T (1999) Morbidity and mortality of hospitalized patients after the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake. Am J Emerg Med 17:186–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tesfamariam S, Saatcioglu M (2010) Seismic vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete buildings using hierarchical fuzzy rule base modeling. Earthq Spectra 26:235–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tierney KJ (1990) Developing multivariate models for earthquake casualty estimation. In: Workshop on modelling earthquake casualties for planning and response, Pacific Grove United States, 04–06 December 1990

  • Trendafiloski G, Wyss M, Rosset P (2011) Loss estimation module in the second generation software QLARM. In: Spence R, So E, Scawthorn C (eds) Human casualties in earthquakes: progress in modelling and mitigation, Advanced in Natural and Technological Research, vol 29. Springer, The netherlands, pp 95–106

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J-H, Lu X-G, Jiang M, Li X-Y, Tian JH (2009) Fuzzy synthetic evaluation of wetland soil quality degradation: a case study on the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China. Pedosphere 19:756–764

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zuccaro G, Cacace F (2011) Seismic casualty evaluation: the Italian model, an application to the L’Aquila 2009 event. In: Spence R, So E, Scawthorn C (eds) Human casualties in earthquakes: progress in modelling and mitigation. Advanced in natural and technological research, vol 29. Springer, The Netherlands, pp 171–184

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The author would like to acknowledge Dr. Gilles Lamothe from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Ottawa for his insight and assistance with the statistical analysis of the datasets. The author would also like to thank Dr. Ollie Jay and Matthew Cramer (Ph.D. Candidate) from the School of Human Kinetics at the University of Ottawa for the modification and use of their thermometric model.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory for Applied Geomatics and GIS Science, University of Ottawa, 60 University Pvt., Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5, Canada

    S. K. Ploeger & M. Sawada

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5, Canada

    A. Elsabbagh & M. Saatcioglu

Authors
  1. S. K. Ploeger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. A. Elsabbagh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. M. Saatcioglu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. M. Sawada
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. K. Ploeger.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ploeger, S.K., Elsabbagh, A., Saatcioglu, M. et al. Development of the CanRisk earthquake injury model. Nat Hazards 80, 1171–1194 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2017-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2017-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation